Re: CHINA อันนี้เป็น PE ของ Shanghai Stock Exchange http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PESHANEW:IND ส่วนของ Shenzhen หา graph ไม่เจอใครเจอ ช่วยแชร์หน่อยครับ เจอแต่ข้อมูล Overview http://www.szse.cn/main/en/MarketStatistics/MarketOverview/ หวังว่าเป็นประโยชน์นะครับ ก่อนการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นอันไกลโพ้น :mrgreen: โดย Tropheus พฤหัสฯ. ก.ย. 01, 2011 8:03 pm

Re: CHINA กราฟ PE ไม่แน่ใจครับ แต่ถ้ากราฟราคาดูที่ bloomberg ตามนี้ครับ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHSN300:IND ขอบคุณครับ อันนี้ผมก็มี แต่อยากได้ที่มันมี PE ประกอบด้วย เคยอ่านผ่านมาว่าตอนนี้ PE ก็ยังประมาณ13 กว่าๆๆ หลังจากช่วงที่ผ่านมาขึ้นไป 14-15 ตอนนี้ราคา ETF ตัวนี้ตกไปเยอะเหมือนกัน แต่อาจจะเพราะพึงเปิดซื้อขาย กลัวกองทุนของไทยตัวนี้ทีไปลงทุน นี่บริหารไม่ดีแล้วจะเจ๊งเหมือนกัน ไม่ทราบใครพอมี Idea ความเสี่ยงของการลงทุน ETF ตัวนี้บ้างครับ โดย Tropheus เสาร์ ส.ค. 20, 2011 1:56 pm

Re: CHINA มีใครทราบไหมครับ ว่าเราจะดู กราฟ PE กลุ่ม CSI 300 ในอดีตถึงปัจจุบัน จากเว็บไหนครับ ขอบคุณครับ โดย Tropheus ศุกร์ ส.ค. 19, 2011 4:02 pm

Re: ภาพเตือนสติมือใหม่ เอา Blog ของ Mobius มาสนับสนุนเงินทุนไหลเข้าอย่าง P' Jeng ว่า หวังว่าอย่างน้อยใครไม่มาแต่กองทุนแกที่ดูแลเงินเป็นหมื่นล้านคงโยกเงินมาลงเมืองไทยบ้างนะ http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/ The U.S. Debt and Emerging Market Opportunities August 8, 2011Leave a comment I wanted to put a quick note out regarding the U.S. debt downgrade and the events of the past week as we have been getting a number of questions from readers and twitter followers. Standard & Poor’s potential downgrade of U.S. debt had been signaled for a few weeks, so it did not come as a complete surprise. In fact, some smaller rating agencies had already downgraded the U.S. Nonetheless, the initial market reaction will likely be a high degree of uncertainty and volatility, since investors will likely not know where to turn for assets with lower short-term volatility. During the subprime crisis, investors largely sought such assets in U.S. Dollars and Treasuries. While during the subprime crisis the USD index was high, now it is low reflecting a changed perception of markets that may be considered less volatile in the short-term. In particular, we believe currencies and stocks of emerging countries may look relatively attractive given: (1) emerging markets generally have more foreign reserves than developed countries and (2) the debt-to-GDP levels of emerging countries tend to be lower than developed countries. This improved ability to manage their currencies and historically better ability to service debt is why we believe emerging market currencies have been so strong – and may continue to be. เอามาให้อ่านกันต่อความคิดเห็นของ Mark Mobius http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2011/08/17/readers%E2%80%99-questions-answered-part-vii/#more-1173 Readers’ Questions Answered Part VII August 17, 2011Leave a commentGo to comments Many of you may be particularly concerned about the developments related to debt in the eurozone and theU.S.over the last few weeks. I’d like to take this opportunity to share my thoughts on these events and respond to a couple of reader questions. How concerned are you about the current problems within the eurozone and with U.S. debt? – Peter, United States To me, the European debt situation does not seem as serious as theU.S.debt crisis, both in terms of scale and the possible impact on the global economy. As such, I believe the world’s focus should really be on theU.S.debt crisis. We also have to remember that the tolerance for debt is generally affected by investor confidence levels. Therefore, we must focus on reinstating confidence, which may be impacted if debt levels rise. Increasing debt levels may lead to a weaker currency, as investors may shun currencies of countries burdened by debt. One possible way to counter the effects of a weaker currency is to make investments that could potentially increase in value over the long-term and could thus potentially help reduce the value-eroding effects of inflation, which can result from a weaker currency. In Europe, we will continue to closely watch the region’s emerging markets, particularly Romania, Russia and Poland. In Romania, we continue to see plenty of opportunities, especially in sectors such as energy and transportation. I’m also very excited about Russia, where we see high growth potential, particularly in the agriculture, natural resources and oil sectors. We believe Poland offers potential resulting from its strong political structure and what has been its positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, Poland was the only country in the European Union to maintain positive GDP growth throughout the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.[1] With the U.S. debt ceiling lifted, what are your thoughts on the effect on emerging markets? – Joseph, Philippines The lifting of the debt ceiling was expected to take place eventually, since there seemed no other way out of the problem in the short-term. The world’s focus now has turned to the downgrade of theU.S.credit rating. In general, the short-term impact on emerging markets has been similar to the impact on other world markets—confusion, volatility and a loss of investor confidence. However, in the medium to longer term, with the increased money supply and continued loose monetary policies, not only in the U.S. but in other parts of the world, we expect higher inflation to impact all countries, including emerging markets. How might these issues broadly impact global markets? I believe the European debt crisis alone is unlikely to cause a global recession, because we are seeing continued growth for many countries around the world. The IMF forecasts that, as a whole, emerging economies will grow 6.6% this year, three times faster than the 2.2% growth projected for developed countries.[2] Increasing consumption and per capita incomes, especially in emerging markets, continue to drive our focus on the consumer and commodities sectors. So far, we have seen no significant impact of developed market debt problems on emerging economies, including Asia’s export-driven markets. We expect Asia’s exports to grow and likely remain the engines of the region’s prospects. We must remember that despite the concerns about European sovereign debt, the region continues to consume. Also, Asian countries have become less dependent on the U.S.and European export markets. In many of these countries, the U.S.and Europeare no longer the largest export destination. For example, 41% of China’s exports and 58% of Thailand’s exports have gone to other Asian countries.[3] As I see it, the problems surrounding theU.S.debt situation have placed greater emphasis on the potential of emerging markets. Several emerging countries have lower debt-to-GDP ratios and larger foreign reserves than many developed countries. We may see more diversification away from theU.S.dollar and U.S. Treasuries and into emerging markets, a shift that has already been reflected in the strong appreciation of several emerging market currencies. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads are another potential indication of that preference, with some emerging countries having a lower CDS spread than some developed countries, implying a lower perceived risk of default. [1] Source:CIA World Factbook.Poland: Economy, as of July 5, 2011. [2] Source: World Economic Outlook Update, June 2011. © 2011 by International Monetary Fund. All Rights Reserved. [3] Source: ITC (International Trade Centre) calculations based on COMTRADE statistics. Calculated using 2010 data. โดย Tropheus พุธ ส.ค. 17, 2011 10:09 pm

Re: ภาพเตือนสติมือใหม่ เอา Blog ของ Mobius มาสนับสนุนเงินทุนไหลเข้าอย่าง P' Jeng ว่า หวังว่าอย่างน้อยใครไม่มาแต่กองทุนแกที่ดูแลเงินเป็นหมื่นล้านคงโยกเงินมาลงเมืองไทยบ้างนะ http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/ The U.S. Debt and Emerging Market Opportunities August 8, 2011Leave a comment I wanted to put a quick note out regarding the U.S. debt downgrade and the events of the past week as we have been getting a number of questions from readers and twitter followers. Standard & Poor’s potential downgrade of U.S. debt had been signaled for a few weeks, so it did not come as a complete surprise. In fact, some smaller rating agencies had already downgraded the U.S. Nonetheless, the initial market reaction will likely be a high degree of uncertainty and volatility, since investors will likely not know where to turn for assets with lower short-term volatility. During the subprime crisis, investors largely sought such assets in U.S. Dollars and Treasuries. While during the subprime crisis the USD index was high, now it is low reflecting a changed perception of markets that may be considered less volatile in the short-term. In particular, we believe currencies and stocks of emerging countries may look relatively attractive given: (1) emerging markets generally have more foreign reserves than developed countries and (2) the debt-to-GDP levels of emerging countries tend to be lower than developed countries. This improved ability to manage their currencies and historically better ability to service debt is why we believe emerging market currencies have been so strong – and may continue to be. โดย Tropheus จันทร์ ส.ค. 08, 2011 10:25 pm

Re: The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Hellish !!! ลองไปอ่านเพิ่มดูของ Mark Mobius น่าสนใจดีครับ http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2011/06/15/the-problem-with-the-misuse-of-derivatives/#more-1115 The Problem with the Misuse of Derivatives June 15, 2011 Leave a comment Go to comments I recently spoke at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo, where we covered a number of interesting topics. Following that event, you may have recently read headlines where the media has quoted me as predicting a second financial crisis. In this post, I’d like to give a little more context to that comment and also cover something I am particularly worried about: the problem of derivatives. Market volatility is a reality of today and goes in two directions, up and down. One of the reasons we have (and are likely to continue to see) this level of volatility is because of the occasional misuse of derivatives. Of course, not all derivatives are bad. If understood and used appropriately they can be used by funds as tools to hedge or mitigate risk. For example, currency forwards or interest rate swaps are typically used to hedge out a fund’s risk related to a specific currency or interest rate exposure. What I am most concerned about is the use of derivatives as speculative tools or derivatives that involve high levels of leverage where the investor did not adequately control the implied leverage and resulting market exposures and liabilities, such as companies that may use derivatives to “game” commodity exposures—a practice that generally makes it more difficult to accurately assess the value of a company’s stock. For example, an airline may start out using oil futures contracts to hedge the risk of a rise in the price of jet fuel, but may drift from this understandable hedging use into speculating on the price of oil—a potentially risky activity that is somewhat removed from its core business of air transport. Misusing these financial instruments contributed significantly to the global financial crisis in 2008, and they continue to be used today. The total value of derivatives in the world at the end of 2010 was more than $600 trillion. That’s 10 times the world’s total GDP.[1] When we have many derivative instruments betting in different directions with a lack of understanding and regulation, we are likely to have more volatility. Add to that the unforeseen and unpredictable events that occur across the world, together with an even more interconnected global marketplace, and we are likely to have more sharp and sudden moves in the market as knee-jerk reactions become more common among many investors. Such heightened volatility can scare people away from equity investments, which is a pity, since study after study has shown that in the long term, equities have outperformed. We cannot exactly predict when the next market correction will hit us, nor know how great or small it will be, but we do realize that market volatility is here to stay. Few of the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis have been resolved—banks are bigger than ever, and the derivatives market continues to grow and remains largely unregulated. It is heartening to see that international policymakers are trying to work toward a global regulatory standard, but until we find a true, long-term solution to these problems, we cannot ignore the possibility of another financial crisis. But, as a long-standing English proverb tells us, we can “hope for the best and prepare for the worst.” With every crisis comes great opportunity. Therefore, we continue to invest with a long-term horizon in companies that we believe are undervalued, fundamentally strong and growing, and those that we think can weather through difficult times. Our long-term, ground-up, disciplined investing approach has kept us in good stead through the volatility so far and, I believe, could see us through potential crises or corrections that may loom around the corner. [1]. Source: Bank of International Settlements, 18 May 2011. โดย Tropheus พุธ มิ.ย. 15, 2011 9:57 pm