Semiconductors are used in the ever-growing consumer electronics segment. When demand for semiconductors picks up, it is driven in large part by consumer demand for cell phones, tablets, and computers. Bonds are typically in greater demand when investors are concerned about future economic outcomes. It is fair to say it leans toward the bullish economic camp when semiconductors are strong and bonds are weak.
We have shown examples of weakness in bonds above. How do semiconductor stocks look right now? The longer-term outlook is positive. The weekly chart below of the semiconductor ETF (SMH) shows a recent bullish break above resistance dating back over two years. The upper blue trendline below acted as resistance four times (see red arrows). The trend of reversals at the blue line was broken in a bullish manner several weeks ago. As of Thursday’s close, the breakout is holding.
Many have an improving outlook for the next quarter citing double-digit growth in mobile/wireless like for Marvell Technology Group (MRVL). Analog Devices (ADI) recently announced a 60% cash flow payout increase to 80% in dividends and buybacks. JP Morgan had its 41st Annual Technology Conference just a couple of weeks ago with companies including Texas Instruments (TI), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Maxim Integrated (MXIM), and Microchip Technology (MCHP). They said that coming away from the conference, almost every semiconductor company stated order rates and backlog continue to grow.
North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts April 2013 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.08
SAN JOSE, Calif. — May 21, 2013 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.17 billion in orders worldwide in April 2013 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.08, according to the April EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 1.08 means that $108 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.
The three-month average of worldwide bookings in April 2013 was $1.17 billion. The bookings figure is 6.4 percent higher than the final March 2013 level of $1.10 billion, and is 26.8 percent lower than the April 2012 order level of $1.60 billion.
The three-month average of worldwide billings in April 2013 was $1.08 billion. The billings figure is 9.3 percent higher than the final March 2013 level of $991.0 million, and is 25.7 percent lower than the April 2012 billings level of $1.46 billion.
“Both bookings and billings trends have been improving over the last four months, with the book-to-bill ratio remaining above parity over the same period," said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “While orders remain well below last year’s numbers, the current order and spending activity is aligned with 2012 capex plans.”
The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Bookings
(3-mo. avg)
Book-to-Bill
November 2012
910.1
718.6
0.79
December 2012
1,006.1
927.4
0.92
January 2013
968.0
1,076.0
1.11
February 2013
974.7
1,073.5
1.10
March 2013 (final)
991.0
1,103.3
1.11
April 2013 (prelim)
1,083.2
1,173.4
1.08
Source: SEMI, May 2013
The data contained in this release were compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.
The data are contained in a monthly Book-to-Bill Report published by SEMI. The report tracks billings and bookings worldwide of North American-headquartered manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and bookings of the chips themselves. The Book-to-Bill report is one of three reports included with the Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS).
SEMI is the global industry association serving the nano- and micro-electronic manufacturing supply chains. Our 1,900 member companies are the engine of the future, enabling smarter, faster and more economical products that improve our lives. Since 1970, SEMI has been committed to helping members grow more profitably, create new markets and meet common industry challenges. SEMI maintains offices in Bangalore, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Grenoble, Hsinchu, Moscow, San Jose, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit www.semi.org.
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