สถานการณ์วิกฤติการเงินกรีซ

[vim]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33403665

[ทศพร29]

จริงอยู่ที่ VI สนใจกิจการเท่านั้นไม่สนใจภาพใหญ่
แต่ในโลกของการเงินนั้น ในเมื่อ กองทุน,ฝรั่ง และอีกมากมายนั้นเรียนรู้เรื่อง
"Portfolio theory" พื้นฐานคือกระจายความเสี่ยงไปยังหลักทรัพย์ที่มากกว่า 24 ตัว
คุณจะได้ตัวแทนของตลาดนั้นๆ แล้ว แต่ทว่า ถ้าหากคุณลงทุนในตลาดเดียวเท่านั้น
คุณก็ไม่ได้กระจายความเสี่ยงในระดับตลาด จึงเกิดการลงทุนข้ามตลาด ซึ่งเพิ่มความเสี่ยงด้านอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนเพิ่มขึ้น
แลกกับการกระจายความเสี่ยงเพิ่มขึ้น
ดังนั้นเมื่อเกิดวิกฤติที่ใดในโลกก็ตาม มันจะเกิดการเทกระจาดในตลาดอื่นๆ ถึงแม้นว่า ตลาดนั้นไม่มีผลกระทบก็ตาม
แล้วเพราะอะไรทำให้เกิดแบบนี้ขึ้นเพราะ การเงินไม่มีพรมแดน นักลงทุนสหรัฐสามารถลงทุนในหุ้น,หน่วยลงทุนของกองทุนรวม,สัญญาล่วงหน้าต่างๆ,ETF (ตัวแทนดัชนีต่างๆ) ในประเทศเวียดนาม ,ญี่ปุ่น ,จีน ,กรีซ,อังกฤษเป็นต้น
ถ้าหากยังไม่ลืมไป วิกฤติแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ ตลาดไทยกระทบ แต่พื้นฐานแข็งแกร่ง แต่ก็ลงหนัก
ตามมาด้วยวิฤติของ PIGS ก็โดนอีกเหมือนกัน หากย้อนไปไกลหน่อย ตลาดไทยเมื่อก่อนหน้าก็โดนวิกฤติแม็กซิโก้ ด้วย
ดังนั้นไม่ควรมองข้ามไปในจุดนี้
คุณอาจจะของถูกจนไม่น่าเชื่อก็เป็นไปได้
จงเตรียมเงินสดเอาไว้ให้พร้อมละกัน

ผมก็เชื่อว่าอย่างนั้นครับ

[miracle]

GREECE DEFAULT WATCH
Bloomberg View's Leonid Bershidsky interprets the market signals and the news coverage to tell us if we're closer to a deal or default.


Waiting for Tsipras
JUL 07, 2015 9:30AM EDT
Ahead of tonight’s emergency European Union summit, political leaders expressed a strong preference for keeping Greece in the euro, but finance ministers weren’t optimistic about finding a solution. “We have to put our little egos -- or in my case very large ego -- away and deal with the situation,” European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said. “France is convinced we cannot take the risk to let Greece exit the euro zone,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls insisted. German Chancellor Angela Merkel refrained from making such strong statements, merely reminding Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, for the umpteenth time, that creditors won’t wait forever for him to make up his mind. Tsipras and his new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, are expected to submit a new proposal to European leaders tonight. It would need to be immediately acceptable to the creditors for Greece to be able to reopen banks this week, as Tsipras has promised. Finance ministers don’t expect such a magical document. “I am an eternal optimist but I don’t think that we will have a result today,” Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb said. He and his colleagues said they weren’t willing to discuss a debt cut, which is what Tsipras, armed with a strong mandate from his voters, really wants.

In other words, the European side expects to restart negotiations as though the July 5 Greek plebiscite never happened. Tsipras appears to want that, too. According to Bloomberg, he is seeking a bridging loan of 7 billion euros ($7.7 billion) to keep from missing more debt payments and to give him some breathing space in the talks. That’s a lot to ask, and the European leaders want Tsipras to feel pressured, so they are unlikely to commit the money. Yet they clearly lack the political will to kick Greece out of the euro, so they won’t break off the talks. The next crunch is coming when Greek banks run out of cash and the European Central Bank needs to decide whether or not to increase emergency aid. If there’s hope in the talks, the ECB will do it. If not, Grexit will just happen, without any of the leaders having to announce it officially.

Leonid Bershidsky
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-greece-default/

[miracle]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... reece-now-

After the ‘No’ Vote: What Can The EU Do About Greece Now?
It's crunch time for Greece - and the euro. What happens next?
by Rebecca Christie

July 7, 2015 — 9:10 PM ICT
Euro-area leaders and finance ministers meet Tuesday in Brussels to discuss how Greece can stay in the common currency. It’s the first round of serious talks since Greek voters resoundingly rejected the terms of a prior bailout offer that expired on June 30.
What Do the Greeks Want?
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said his government wants debt restructuring as part of its next aid package.
In the short term, Tsipras and his new finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos will probably arrive in Brussels with many of the same proposals they had before the referendum. Their main goal will be to start talks on bridge financing, to help Greece get past its upcoming financing hurdles.
Tsipras also asked for a two-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism, the euro-area’s firewall fund, in a June 30 letter before the referendum.
When’s the Real Deadline?
July 20, most likely. That’s when Greece needs to pay about 3.5 billion euros ($3.9 billion) in bond redemptions for securities held by the European Central Bank. Greece needs short-term cash before then, or else an expanded lifeline from the ECB to its financial system.
That said, Greek banks have already been shut for more than a week because of their cash crunch. The ECB has mostly left intact its lifelines to Greek banks but on Monday it tightened conditions on emergency liquidity assistance. And on Tuesday it warned that offering too much flexibility to struggling lenders could weaken the incentive for others to follow the rules. That could be a reason to withdraw or reduce the support to Greece.
How Much Peril Are The Banks In?
A lot. Worst case scenario, they could all fail, taking household, corporate and public sector deposits with them. But that scenario is a long way off.
The ECB’s Governing Council has declared it will work closely with the Bank of Greece to maintain financial stability. Also, the ECB’s aid isn’t likely to be withdrawn abruptly.
What Happens Today?
Finance ministers meet first, starting at 1 p.m. Brussels time. They’re likely to rule out bridge financing, saying Tsipras must start from scratch on a third bailout because all previous offers have expired. They will, however, most likely start the procedures that allow the European Commission and other institutions to draw up bailout outlines.
Euro-area leaders meet at 6:30 p.m. They can declare that Greek bridge financing would be best for the euro area and ask finance ministers to take another crack at it. Or they can hold the line, telling Greece a third program is its only path. There’s an outside chance that talks break down, tipping Greece closer to the exit.
What About Debt Relief?
Talks on debt relief are likely to be political rather than practical. Greece’s biggest short-term bills are to the IMF, the ECB and its workers, which can’t be restructured easily.
In the longer term, the euro area could ease Greece’s overall debt burden considerably by lengthening the terms and lowering interest rates on some existing rescue loans. This has been on the table since 2012, but the Greeks haven’t persuaded the euro area to make good on the offer so far.
Who Should We Watch?
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has insisted that Greece can’t get any money for free and must meet euro-area rules to win assistance. French President Francois Hollande has led the side of conciliation, urging everyone to stay at the bargaining table.
Convincing the German leader will be a tough sell.
“The conditions for entering negotiations on a concrete ESM program are not in place at this time,” Merkel said Monday after meeting Hollande in Paris. “It will be important tomorrow that the Greek prime minister tells us how this should move forward and explain to us what precise recommendations he has.”
What Happens Next?
As long as politicians keep talking, the ECB won’t want to cut off Greek bank aid -- which is the main thing holding the country’s finances up.
Euro-area finance ministers are due to return to Brussels on July 13 for a scheduled meeting and leaders may make that the next deadline for Greece to show it’s finally ready to meet creditors’ long-standing demands on taxes, spending and labor-market reforms.
But What if the Greeks Don’t Budge?
EU leaders say the Greeks are in a weaker position after the prior program -- and its related offers of extension, short-term cash and debt relief -- expired. Tsipras disagrees.
If the Greeks hold firm, they could be heading for the exit.
Then What?
If negotiations are formally broken off, the ECB may feel obliged to veto further liquidity to the banking system, a move that would probably lead to a broad-based default.
If a political breakdown doesn’t cause the ECB to reach for the trigger, any non-payment of the money Greece owes to the ECB on July 20 almost certainly would.
The euro area could decide to help Greece to an orderly exit, through a phased withdrawal of liquidity or some other settlement mechanism. It could also put Greece’s euro membership on temporary suspension, a prospect raised over the weekend by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
As part of its efforts to protect the currency bloc, the ECB has said it’s ready to protect other countries from contagion.

[miracle]

Tsipras Begins Brussels Campaign to Keep Greece Inside the Euro

by Eleni Chrepa,Arne Delfs and Matthew Campbell

July 7, 2015 — 2:49 PM ICT Updated on July 7, 2015 — 8:11 PM ICT

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for what could be a last chance to secure a rescue from European leaders and keep his country in the euro.
After German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “time is running out” for Greece to come up with a plan, finance ministers gathered for talks with division remaining over what they were willing to accept. Leaders are then scheduled to convene at 6:30 p.m. Brussels time.
Europe’s most indebted country is closer than ever to an exit from the euro zone, with banks low on cash and creditor nations led by Germany running even lower on patience. Without significant new funds from the European Central Bank, Greek lenders -- already shuttered since June 26 -- will have to remain closed indefinitely, strangling the country’s economy.
“The Greek government has fought with great success that it does not want a program,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said before the meeting. “But without a program there is no possibility within the frame of the euro zone to help Greece.”
Few Options
Among options mooted earlier on Tuesday was a bridging loan for Greece to meet payments before a new deal can get through parliaments. Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb said that’s not being looked at for now.
Tsipras is also seeking some form of debt relief. While Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said on his way into the meeting that it could be part of a solution, his Slovak counterpart said it was a red line for him.
“Greece was in the last-chance saloon some time ago,” said Nicholas Spiro, the managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, an advisory firm in London. “In order for there to be some sort of a deal to keep Greece in the euro zone, both Athens and Berlin would need to shift their stances dramatically in a matter of hours.”
Tsipras blindsided European partners by walking out of bailout talks on June 26 to call a referendum on more austerity. Sixty-one percent of voters said “no” to measures under negotiation that included curbs on early retirement and sales-tax increases in exchange for new money.
Not Inevitable
European leaders characterized the vote as a plebiscite on membership in the euro itself, though Tsipras insists Greece can and will stay in. One European official who asked not to be identified said today’s meeting was a final chance for a deal.
To be sure, a “Grexit” is by no means inevitable. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said his country will do “everything” to keep Greece in the euro, a position shared by Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president. U.S. President Barack Obama has also urged compromise.

A Greek departure would also probably be a gradual process, rather than a single transformative event, with European countries looking to manage the transition to minimize humanitarian and economic fallout.
For now, Merkel and other European leaders hold most of the cards in negotiations.
Euro Decline
Meet Greece's New Finance Minister, Euclid Tsakalotos
Financial markets have reacted moderately each day to the Greek turmoil. The euro was down 1.2 percent to 1.0929 as of 2:07 p.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.2 percent.
The European Central Bank tightened the screws on Greece late Monday by making it harder for its banks to access the emergency loans that have kept them afloat, and keeping the level of assistance at the equivalent of a drip feed. The country’s bank closure and capital controls have been extended through Wednesday to stem withdrawals.
European leaders have all made clear the onus is on Greece to explain how it plans to pull itself out of the crisis. Merkel called the offer from creditors before Tsipras called the referendum “very generous,” while Juncker described the question put to the Greek people “irrelevant.”
‘Iron Chancellor’
Merkel has to contend with a German public becoming increasingly frustrated with the Greek stance. Bild, Germany’s biggest selling newspaper, urged Merkel to remain tough and offer “no new billions for Greece.”
“Today we need the Iron Chancellor,” ran the tabloid’s front page headline, alongside a picture of Merkel in a Bismarck-style army helmet.
Greece made a pre-emptive concession to creditors with the resignation of outspoken Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who had clashed with his counterparts from other countries, especially Schaeuble. Varoufakis was replaced with Euclid Tsakalotos, a long-time ally of Tsipras who shares Varoufakis’s politics, though not his combative style.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... d-ibt1cq56

[miracle]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... crisis-fix

Schaeuble Says Pressure Is on Greece to Propose Crisis Fix

by James G Neuger and Rebecca Christie
July 7, 2015 — 6:31 PM ICT Updated on July 7, 2015 — 9:18 PM ICT
Greece’s creditors sparred over offering short-term loans to stave off a financial collapse after the country’s voters rejected austerity and the nation’s rescue program lapsed.
With cash draining out of Greek banks and a payment looming to the European Central Bank, finance ministers from Austria and Luxembourg signaled an openness to the need for bridge financing to accompany talks over a new bailout.
“It doesn’t have to be a solution for a long-term program, but there has to be a liquidity solution,” Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling told reporters Tuesday in Brussels before euro-area crisis meetings. Luxembourg’s Pierre Gramegna said: “Bridge financing can be a solution to open the banks in a few days, maybe next week.”
Echoing the consensus, both said the onus is on Greece to show it deserves more aid by proposing a viable economic overhaul package. Greece’s day-to-day struggle for financial survival risks hitting the wall on July 20, when the government is due to pay 3.5 billion euros ($3.8 billion) to the ECB.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and head of the group of euro-area finance ministers, has expressed his disappointment with the Greek referendum vote. Photographer: Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg
A German government official said the Greek government didn’t offer new proposals at Tuesday’s meeting.
Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras asked for a two-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism, the euro-area’s firewall fund, in a June 30 letter. For this request to proceed, finance ministers need to send a letter to the European Commission allowing a bailout design to move ahead.
As the meeting got under way, Slovakian Finance Minister Peter Kažimír said on Twitter that he was skeptical a deal will be struck.


Prior Actions
Greece’s aid requests to creditors are based on the list of prior actions published by the European Commission on June 28, a person familiar with the matter said Monday. Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, the Greek government planned to propose five amendments to the list of prior actions the European Commission requested as a condition of aid before June 30. Those actions related to value-added taxes, pensions, military spending, tax rebates for farmers and other reforms.
Those proposals gained little favor from euro-region finance officials on a Monday conference call to prepare for Tuesday’s meetings. The June 30 offers have expired with the second bailout program, so any new financing would have to be part of a comprehensive new aid deal, the officials said.
Read this next:
Tsipras in Brussels on Euro Survival Mission
Time Dwindles for Greek Banks
Greek Stock Market Shut for Two More Days
Greek Stock Market Shut for Two More Days
Euclid Tsakalotos, named Greek finance minister after Sunday’s anti-austerity referendum, didn’t speak on his way into the meeting, which will be followed at 6:30 p.m. by a summit of euro-zone government leaders.
Red Lines
Austria’s Schelling said there are “a number of variants” for getting Greece through the next few weeks, such as using untapped funds or striking ad hoc deals similar to the first Greek aid package in 2010.
With most ministers sketching out well-known red lines on the way into the meeting, Finland’s Alexander Stubb said a short-term financing arrangement is not under consideration “at this particular stage.”
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble didn’t go into the negotiating detail, emphasizing that it is up to Greece to sketch a path out of its economic misery.
“The pressure is mainly with the Greeks,” Schaeuble said. “The Greek government has to indicate how they can agree with their creditors.”

[yoko]

นวคกิมเองบอกว่ากรีซยื่นแผนแก่เจ้าหนี้ และแผนเป็นไปตามที่เจ้าหนี้ต้องการ
แล้วกรีซจะลงประชามติไปทำไม555

[ดำ]

นวคกิมเองบอกว่ากรีซยื่นแผนแก่เจ้าหนี้ และแผนเป็นไปตามที่เจ้าหนี้ต้องการ
แล้วกรีซจะลงประชามติไปทำไม555

ตลกกว่านั้น แล้ววงการลงทุนทั้งโลกจะตกใจ เสียเวลาจับตามองไปทำไม

[soros]

นวคกิมเองบอกว่ากรีซยื่นแผนแก่เจ้าหนี้ และแผนเป็นไปตามที่เจ้าหนี้ต้องการ
แล้วกรีซจะลงประชามติไปทำไม555

มันเป็นเกมการเมืองในประเทศของกรีก ที่นายกกรีกแนะให้ ปชช Vote NO เพื่อที่นายกกรีกได้ปฎิเสธแผนเจ้าหนี้ ซึ่งจะได้เป็นไปตามที่ตัวเองหาเสียงไว้ จากนั้น นายกกรีกก็เขียนแผนแบบเดียวกับเจ้าหนี้ เพื่อให้เจ้าหนี้ยอมรับแผน กรีกจะได้อยู่ยูโรโซนต่อ แต่นายกกรีกสามารถอธิบายกับประชาชนได้ว่า ผลของการ Vote NO กรีกสามารถต่อรองเงื่อนไขให้ทางเจ้าหนี้ยอมรับแผนได้

[leaderinshadow]

กรีซยื่นแผนตามที่เจ้าหนี้ต้องการจริงๆครับ
แต่แสบตรงเงื่อนที่พ่วงมาว่า ยอมนะ แต่ต้องลดหนี้ลง 30% ไม่งั้นก็จะไม่จ่ายหนี้ทั้งหมด และพร้อมจะออกจากยูโรโซน