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]Bright Spot in Downturn: New Hiring Is Robust[/color]
Everyone knows the grim news — unemployment in the United States has jumped to 8.5 percent, a 25-year high, and is racing toward double digits. Since November, the nation has lost more than three million jobs.
But not everyone knows the brighter side to the equation: deep in the maw of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, millions are still being hired.
So, while 4.8 million workers were laid off or chose to leave their jobs in February, employers across the country hired 4.3 million workers that month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The best thing you can say about these numbers is it speaks to the dynamism of the U.S. economy, and the net negative number that we all traffic in masks that,” said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at ITG, a research and trading firm. “Ninety out of 100 people who know the number — 650,000 were lost in February — think that means no one was hired and 650,000 were fired.”
In February — before the economy started to show the first faint signs of a possible recovery — there were three million job openings nationwide. And despite large new job losses likely to be announced Friday, there are still millions of job openings.
Who is hiring? Hospitals, colleges, discount stores, restaurants and municipal public works departments. I.B.M. is hiring more than 700 people for its new technical services center in Dubuque, Iowa, while the Cleveland Clinic has 500 job openings, not just for nurses but also for pharmacy aides and physical therapists. And after President Obama’s stimulus package kicks into gear, state, local governments and road-building contractors are expected to hire more.
Zachary Schaefer has hired 72 people since February for the Culver’s hamburger and frozen custard restaurant that he and several partners just opened in Surprise, Ariz.
“The amount of applicants who are qualified is definitely up,” he said. “Whereas before we were counting on a lot of high school applicants, now there are a lot more middle-age people applying.”
Eddie Hamm, a former construction worker, was unemployed for five months when he drove by the site where the Culver’s was under construction. Mr. Hamm, 29, applied for a job there, and now he’s a “fry guy.”
“I’m just happy I got hired — I didn’t want to stay home, not doing anything,” he said, hardly complaining that he is earning half the $15 an hour he made in construction. “I don’t look at it like I’m making $7.50. I look at it — I’m having a job in a down time, and it’s a job where I can move up.”
Economists and job counselors advise the unemployed that there are definitely jobs to be had, even if there aren’t nearly enough to go around. With 13.2 million people out of work, there are 4 1/3 unemployed Americans for every job opening. “You’re facing more competition for every job you apply for, but the reality is there is a lot of hiring going on,” said Andrew M. Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. “You’re never going to find anything unless you apply.”
Even industries that have taken a beating are doing plenty of hiring. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, construction companies hired 366,000 workers in February, and manufacturers hired 249,000. Retailers hired 536,000 workers in February, but that was down 25 percent from the previous February.
Some job openings are to replace retirees, some to replace employees who left for other jobs, but many openings result from expansion. Companies that are still growing are blessed with talented applicants.
“It’s easier to hire in a recession — we have about five applications for every position,” said Howard Glickberg, principal owner of Fairway Market, the well-known grocery company based in Manhattan.
Fairway just hired 350 people for its month-old store in Paramus, N.J., the first Fairway outside of New York State. The company plans to add 1,200 more workers over the next two years by opening stores in Queens; Pelham Manor, N.Y.; and Stamford, Conn.
“What you have to be afraid of is hiring someone who can’t find something better at the time, and when they find something better they leave you,” Mr. Glickberg said. “I want to hire someone who will make a career of it.”
The nation’s largest private-sector employer, Wal-Mart Stores, is also hiring aplenty. Wal-Mart, with 1.4 million workers nationwide, hires several hundred thousand workers each year because of employee turnover, and expects to increase its domestic work force by nearly 50,000 this year, thanks to plans to open 150 new stores.
Shawnalyn Conner is running a hiring center for a Wal-Mart store that will open on June 17 in Weaverville, N.C., near Asheville. She plans to hire 350 workers.
“The biggest comment that we get from people is that they’re looking for a company that’s growing, and Wal-Mart offers that,” said Ms. Conner, who, as the top manager of the new store, has hired 77 people so far. Gisel Ruiz, senior vice president for the people division of Wal-Mart U.S., said the company had a hiring program for former junior military officers, often for jobs as assistant store managers. With many veterans having a hard time landing jobs, Wal-Mart hired 150 former officers last year.
The health care industry has held its own in hiring. The University of Miami medical school, which runs three hospitals, has 250 openings and is hiring about 35 people a month, compared with 100 a month in good times. Cleveland Clinic has 500 job openings, compared with 2,000 during better times.
“We have a hiring freeze on, but even when there’s a hiring freeze, we need to maintain our head count,” said Joe Patrnchak , Cleveland Clinic’s chief human resources officer. “We have 40,000 people, and you’re going to have some openings.”
He is encountering an unusual snag in hiring people. “A challenge we have now is people from other areas are having problems selling their homes,” Mr. Patrnchak said. “People aren’t quite as mobile nowadays.”
The University of Miami medical school is also facing an unexpected problem. “There’s a flood of applicants, but even so, it’s harder to find really good, experienced people,” said Paul Hudgins, its associate vice president for medical human resources. “We’re seeing people hunkering down and saying they’re going to stay where they are.”
The recession has encouraged people to cling to their jobs. Just 1.5 percent of workers voluntarily quit their jobs in February, the lowest level since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting those numbers eight years ago.
Like many educational institutions, Washington University in St. Louis continues to hire. It has 175 job openings in admissions, residential life and other areas. There is a flood of job applicants, and Ann Prenatt, vice chancellor for human resources, said that has pros and cons, the advantage being that the university does not have to offer large premiums as often to draw coveted applicants.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/busin ... urn&st=cse
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Soros says economic downward trend easing: report
On Monday May 11, 2009, 7:25 am EDT
BERLIN (Reuters) - The downward trend in the financial crisis is easing and national economic stimulus packages are starting to work, billionaire investor George Soros was quoted as saying by a German newspaper on Monday.
Soros also told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily that Asia would be the first region to pull out of the crisis and China was set to overtake the United States as the engine of world growth.
"The economic freefall has been stopped, the collapse of the financial system averted. National economic stimulus programs are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing," Soros told the newspaper.
"I expect the recovery to make up for around half of the downturn we have had and then to move into stagnation," Soros said. "Asia will be first to find out of the crisis, but America is also currently doing that."
Soros said the U.S. dollar was already weak, adding: "I don't expect the dollar to lose much value against the euro, on the contrary."
Soros said the financial crisis had shown that it was a big advantage for weak countries to be part of the euro system.
"But the crisis should motivate Germany as the strongest country to make proposals for a more efficient euro system. I am missing leadership from the German government on this," Soros said.
"Germany should no longer reject the issuance of European Union bonds," he said.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Soros-say ... et=&ccode=
On Monday May 11, 2009, 7:25 am EDT
BERLIN (Reuters) - The downward trend in the financial crisis is easing and national economic stimulus packages are starting to work, billionaire investor George Soros was quoted as saying by a German newspaper on Monday.
Soros also told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily that Asia would be the first region to pull out of the crisis and China was set to overtake the United States as the engine of world growth.
"The economic freefall has been stopped, the collapse of the financial system averted. National economic stimulus programs are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing," Soros told the newspaper.
"I expect the recovery to make up for around half of the downturn we have had and then to move into stagnation," Soros said. "Asia will be first to find out of the crisis, but America is also currently doing that."
Soros said the U.S. dollar was already weak, adding: "I don't expect the dollar to lose much value against the euro, on the contrary."
Soros said the financial crisis had shown that it was a big advantage for weak countries to be part of the euro system.
"But the crisis should motivate Germany as the strongest country to make proposals for a more efficient euro system. I am missing leadership from the German government on this," Soros said.
"Germany should no longer reject the issuance of European Union bonds," he said.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Soros-say ... et=&ccode=
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Chinese Investment Climbs 30.5% on Stimulus Plan, Surging Loans
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s urban fixed-asset investment climbed 30.5 percent in the first four months from a year earlier as the government pumped money into building railways, oil pipelines and low-cost housing.
The gain compared with a 28.6 percent increase in the first three months and the 29.1 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The statistics bureau released the figure in Beijing.
Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is sparking signs of a government-led recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy after exports collapsed. Government plans to ease capital requirements for borrowing to invest in fixed assets in transportation, property, coal and information technology may spur more private spending.
“Fixed-asset investment is the most important driver for economic growth this year,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong.
Sun expects gross domestic product to expand more quickly each quarter this year, jumping to a 9.8 percent gain in the final three months from a year earlier.
The State Council announced plans to lower capital requirements for some fixed-asset investment on April 29, without saying how big the cut would be.
‘New Stimulus Package’
Lowering the capital ratio by an average of 6 percentage points could save local governments and private investors more than 1 trillion yuan a year, Lu Zhengwei, Shanghai-based chief economist at Industrial Bank Co., wrote in a report on April 30. “That would almost equal a new stimulus package,” Lu said.
China’s central government has allocated 420 billion yuan for infrastructure projects and earthquake reconstruction from the fourth quarter of last year. That is more than a third of its commitment under the stimulus plan announced in November and running through next year.
New loans in the four months through April topped the government’s targeted minimum of 5 trillion yuan for 2009 as banks supported the stimulus plan, central bank data showed yesterday.
“The current rapid investment growth may not sustain in the second half of this year as new projects and bank loans decelerate,” said Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.
Steel, Petrochemicals, Autos
China will give 20 billion yuan this year in interest-rate subsidies on bank loans to help steel, petrochemical and automobile companies upgrade technology, the State Council said on May 6.
Pending investments include a plan by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and Kuwait’s national oil company to build a $9 billion refining complex in Guangdong province. Volkswagen AG and partner China FAW Group Corp. plan to spend 550 million euros ($737 million) expanding a factory in Chengdu.
China is battling a global recession that has battered exports and dragged economic growth to 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost a decade.
The central bank pledged last week to provide ample money supply for the financial system to sustain growth. It said the foundations for the nation’s recovery aren’t solid.
Signs of recovery included two surveys showing that Chinese manufacturing expanded in April after record contractions last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... KZ2eak84a0
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s urban fixed-asset investment climbed 30.5 percent in the first four months from a year earlier as the government pumped money into building railways, oil pipelines and low-cost housing.
The gain compared with a 28.6 percent increase in the first three months and the 29.1 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The statistics bureau released the figure in Beijing.
Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is sparking signs of a government-led recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy after exports collapsed. Government plans to ease capital requirements for borrowing to invest in fixed assets in transportation, property, coal and information technology may spur more private spending.
“Fixed-asset investment is the most important driver for economic growth this year,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong.
Sun expects gross domestic product to expand more quickly each quarter this year, jumping to a 9.8 percent gain in the final three months from a year earlier.
The State Council announced plans to lower capital requirements for some fixed-asset investment on April 29, without saying how big the cut would be.
‘New Stimulus Package’
Lowering the capital ratio by an average of 6 percentage points could save local governments and private investors more than 1 trillion yuan a year, Lu Zhengwei, Shanghai-based chief economist at Industrial Bank Co., wrote in a report on April 30. “That would almost equal a new stimulus package,” Lu said.
China’s central government has allocated 420 billion yuan for infrastructure projects and earthquake reconstruction from the fourth quarter of last year. That is more than a third of its commitment under the stimulus plan announced in November and running through next year.
New loans in the four months through April topped the government’s targeted minimum of 5 trillion yuan for 2009 as banks supported the stimulus plan, central bank data showed yesterday.
“The current rapid investment growth may not sustain in the second half of this year as new projects and bank loans decelerate,” said Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.
Steel, Petrochemicals, Autos
China will give 20 billion yuan this year in interest-rate subsidies on bank loans to help steel, petrochemical and automobile companies upgrade technology, the State Council said on May 6.
Pending investments include a plan by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and Kuwait’s national oil company to build a $9 billion refining complex in Guangdong province. Volkswagen AG and partner China FAW Group Corp. plan to spend 550 million euros ($737 million) expanding a factory in Chengdu.
China is battling a global recession that has battered exports and dragged economic growth to 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost a decade.
The central bank pledged last week to provide ample money supply for the financial system to sustain growth. It said the foundations for the nation’s recovery aren’t solid.
Signs of recovery included two surveys showing that Chinese manufacturing expanded in April after record contractions last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... KZ2eak84a0
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Bearish Ascending Wedge
by Carl Swenlin
May 8, 2009
An ascending wedge pattern forms when the top of a rising trend channel converges toward the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the channel. It is considered to be bearish because, rain or shine, the price line almost always breaks down through the rising trend line. It is one of the most reliably bearish patterns I know of.
As you can see, there is a clear ascending wedge that has formed on the S&P 500 daily chart, and a price breakdown is virtually guaranteed to occur in a matter of days, if not hours. HOWEVER, "virtually guaranteed" is not the same as 100% guaranteed -- I have seen ascending wedges that resolved to the up side
[img]
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/7223 ... 192813.png[/img]
Another thing to consider is that, if a break down does take place, the duration and amplitude will probably be short term in nature, because the entire formation only covers about a two-month time span, and it is more shallow than steep. More important is the fact that the medium-term market behavior has been clearly bullish.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days. [/img]
by Carl Swenlin
May 8, 2009
An ascending wedge pattern forms when the top of a rising trend channel converges toward the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the channel. It is considered to be bearish because, rain or shine, the price line almost always breaks down through the rising trend line. It is one of the most reliably bearish patterns I know of.
As you can see, there is a clear ascending wedge that has formed on the S&P 500 daily chart, and a price breakdown is virtually guaranteed to occur in a matter of days, if not hours. HOWEVER, "virtually guaranteed" is not the same as 100% guaranteed -- I have seen ascending wedges that resolved to the up side
[img]
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/7223 ... 192813.png[/img]
Another thing to consider is that, if a break down does take place, the duration and amplitude will probably be short term in nature, because the entire formation only covers about a two-month time span, and it is more shallow than steep. More important is the fact that the medium-term market behavior has been clearly bullish.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days. [/img]
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May 6, 2009
Commodities and the Kondratiev Wave
``I agree that commodity prices move in long cycles,'' said Faber, who manages $300 million at Marc Faber Ltd. ``The up wave of the Kondratiev cycle is likely to last for at least another 15 to 20 years.''
Faber devoted a 35-page chapter of his 2001 book ``Tomorrow's Gold'' to Kondratiev and other long-wave theorists, writing that once the cycle turned higher, ``it will change the entire rules of investing, because in a rising wave, commodity prices will rise, inflation will accelerate and interest rates will increase.''
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities has surged 139 percent since October 2001; copper has jumped five-fold, while oil prices have more than tripled. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent, from a low of 1 percent in 2003.
Faber owns mining stocks, which he declined to name, as well as gold, rare metals and agricultural land. He's underweight bonds, which he said don't perform well in a rising Kondratiev wave.
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
Commodities and the Kondratiev Wave
``I agree that commodity prices move in long cycles,'' said Faber, who manages $300 million at Marc Faber Ltd. ``The up wave of the Kondratiev cycle is likely to last for at least another 15 to 20 years.''
Faber devoted a 35-page chapter of his 2001 book ``Tomorrow's Gold'' to Kondratiev and other long-wave theorists, writing that once the cycle turned higher, ``it will change the entire rules of investing, because in a rising wave, commodity prices will rise, inflation will accelerate and interest rates will increase.''
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities has surged 139 percent since October 2001; copper has jumped five-fold, while oil prices have more than tripled. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent, from a low of 1 percent in 2003.
Faber owns mining stocks, which he declined to name, as well as gold, rare metals and agricultural land. He's underweight bonds, which he said don't perform well in a rising Kondratiev wave.
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
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Greenspan Sees ‘Seeds of a Bottoming’ in U.S. Housing (Update3)
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the decline in the U.S. housing market may be bottoming and it’s “very easy to see” financial markets continuing to improve.
“We are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming” in the housing industry, Greenspan said today during a conference of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The U.S. is “at the edge of a major liquidation” in the stock of unsold properties, which may help to stabilize prices, Greenspan said.
Home-sales figures in recent weeks have shown a slower pace of decline, and the slide in property prices has eased, according to gauges including the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
The former Fed chief, who was among the first prominent economists to warn about the risk of a recession in 2007, said housing prices could fall another 5 percent without putting too much strain on the economy.
“We run into trouble if it’s very significantly more than that,” Greenspan said. Housing prices remain “the critical Achilles’ heel” of the economy.
While the housing bottom may not be obvious in prices, it is becoming clear in “significant regional differences,” where some of the hardest-hit areas are starting to show signs of improvement, he said.
Greenspan said in congressional testimony in October that “a flaw” in his free-market ideology contributed to the “once-in-a-century” credit crisis.
Less Trouble
Today, Greenspan said companies are having less trouble raising money. U.S. firms have sold bonds at a record pace so far this year, including a $3.75 billion offering today from Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker.
Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley raised $16.6 billion in stock and bond sales on May 8, just a day after the government ordered them to raise capital, becoming the first banks to respond to the government’s mandate.
“Company after company has been raising capital and they are getting far more than they expected,” said Greenspan, 83, who left the Fed in January 2006 after almost two decades at the helm and has returned to his former role as a private economic forecaster.
With the expansion in market liquidity, “you begin to see, as we are seeing today, a very significant rise in the availability of money,” Greenspan said. As markets improve, “it’s very easy to see that it’s going to continue for an indefinite period,” he said.
Prices Fell
U.S. home prices fell the most on record during the first quarter from the prior year as banks sold seized homes and foreclosures persisted at a high rate in California and Florida. The median U.S. housing price fell 14 percent during the quarter to $169,000 year-over-year, the National Association of Realtors said earlier today.
U.S. banks held $26.6 billion of repossessed real estate at the end of 2008, more than doubling from a year earlier, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington.
Greenspan’s decisions as a central banker have come under scrutiny in recent years after the fall in home prices triggered a collapse in mortgage financing and other credit.
Under Greenspan’s leadership, the Fed left the overnight lending rate between banks at 1 percent from June 2003 until June 2004. Regional Fed presidents such as Gary Stern of Minneapolis and Janet Yellen of San Francisco have publicly questioned the Fed’s hands-off approach toward asset bubbles like the one that emerged in house prices during Greenspan’s tenure.
Kept Rates Low
Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, Stanford University professor John Taylor and other economists say Greenspan’s approach of keeping rates low for an extended period helped to foster the housing bubble.
“I’ve always argued going back many decades that you do not capitalize a piece of real estate with overnight interest rates,” the former chairman said today in response to an audience question.
The housing market is instead fueled by a decline in long- term interest rates, which started a full year before the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, Greenspan said.
“I think there is a recalibration of financial history that I find very puzzling,” he said.
Referring to his critics, he said, “I can say that I respectfully disagree. They’re wrong.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the decline in the U.S. housing market may be bottoming and it’s “very easy to see” financial markets continuing to improve.
“We are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming” in the housing industry, Greenspan said today during a conference of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The U.S. is “at the edge of a major liquidation” in the stock of unsold properties, which may help to stabilize prices, Greenspan said.
Home-sales figures in recent weeks have shown a slower pace of decline, and the slide in property prices has eased, according to gauges including the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
The former Fed chief, who was among the first prominent economists to warn about the risk of a recession in 2007, said housing prices could fall another 5 percent without putting too much strain on the economy.
“We run into trouble if it’s very significantly more than that,” Greenspan said. Housing prices remain “the critical Achilles’ heel” of the economy.
While the housing bottom may not be obvious in prices, it is becoming clear in “significant regional differences,” where some of the hardest-hit areas are starting to show signs of improvement, he said.
Greenspan said in congressional testimony in October that “a flaw” in his free-market ideology contributed to the “once-in-a-century” credit crisis.
Less Trouble
Today, Greenspan said companies are having less trouble raising money. U.S. firms have sold bonds at a record pace so far this year, including a $3.75 billion offering today from Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker.
Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley raised $16.6 billion in stock and bond sales on May 8, just a day after the government ordered them to raise capital, becoming the first banks to respond to the government’s mandate.
“Company after company has been raising capital and they are getting far more than they expected,” said Greenspan, 83, who left the Fed in January 2006 after almost two decades at the helm and has returned to his former role as a private economic forecaster.
With the expansion in market liquidity, “you begin to see, as we are seeing today, a very significant rise in the availability of money,” Greenspan said. As markets improve, “it’s very easy to see that it’s going to continue for an indefinite period,” he said.
Prices Fell
U.S. home prices fell the most on record during the first quarter from the prior year as banks sold seized homes and foreclosures persisted at a high rate in California and Florida. The median U.S. housing price fell 14 percent during the quarter to $169,000 year-over-year, the National Association of Realtors said earlier today.
U.S. banks held $26.6 billion of repossessed real estate at the end of 2008, more than doubling from a year earlier, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington.
Greenspan’s decisions as a central banker have come under scrutiny in recent years after the fall in home prices triggered a collapse in mortgage financing and other credit.
Under Greenspan’s leadership, the Fed left the overnight lending rate between banks at 1 percent from June 2003 until June 2004. Regional Fed presidents such as Gary Stern of Minneapolis and Janet Yellen of San Francisco have publicly questioned the Fed’s hands-off approach toward asset bubbles like the one that emerged in house prices during Greenspan’s tenure.
Kept Rates Low
Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, Stanford University professor John Taylor and other economists say Greenspan’s approach of keeping rates low for an extended period helped to foster the housing bubble.
“I’ve always argued going back many decades that you do not capitalize a piece of real estate with overnight interest rates,” the former chairman said today in response to an audience question.
The housing market is instead fueled by a decline in long- term interest rates, which started a full year before the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, Greenspan said.
“I think there is a recalibration of financial history that I find very puzzling,” he said.
Referring to his critics, he said, “I can say that I respectfully disagree. They’re wrong.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Why a Commodities Super-Boom is Inevitable
by Paul Mladjenovic | May 12, 2009
what should people consider to keep growing their money? What sector will be the beneficiary of current (and expected) economic conditions? The short answer is a simple one: COMMODITIES. Why?
1. Demand. According to the World Population clock (found at the U.S. Census Bureau website), the world population on 7/1/08 was 6,710,926,117. A year later, the projected population for 7/1/09 is expected to be 6,790,062,216. That’s an increase of almost 80 million people in just twelve months. 80 million! At this rate, the world poulation will surpass 7 billion by 2012. Billions of people to feed, clothe and shelter. More people that want more stuff such as food, water, energy, materials and so on.
2. Supply. The supply situation for many commodities are tightening. Due to a variety of factors- weather, government restrictions, the credit crisis, etc. the natural resource sector has limited or falling production that will not be easy to increase in the coming months and years. Many commodities are facing conditions where their production may be peaking in the next few years. Total world oil production, for example, peaked in 2005 and has been steadily decreasing ever since. The recent financial and economic turmoil has only exaserbated the situation. Grains, base and precious metals are also experiencing production decreases. Old copper mines are being depleted and there have not been any new major copper discoveries. The bottom line is that commodities are not in abundance right now and it is a huge and serious question about adequate future supplies to meet growing demand.
3. Inflation. Yes…economic conditions have been “deflationary” but understand that prices have falled (or not risen) due to ‘supply and demand” factors as consumers have drastically pullled back their spending which in turn as forced businesses to contract. As businesses contract, they ultimately have to lay off workers who in turn spend less due to income loss. It becomes a vicious cycle. Therefore, market forces in these conditions have driven prices lower but “lower prices” are not “deflation”. The terms “inflation” and “deflation” are really references to the money supply (our currency). Our government (through our central bank, the Federal Reserve) has issued TRILLIONS of new dollars. This massive money creation and massive spending can not be done without consequences. All of this “over supply” of dollars will ultimately permeate our economy. The bottom line is that our economic necessities—food, water, energy, etc.—will rise in price.
4. More government spending. Those massive so-called “stimulus plans” by our government and other governments (such as China) will artificially push up demand for natural resources as infrastructure projects and other spending programs kick in.
5. Government restrictions. Many governments (including our own) are expanding regulations and taxes on business and production. This will have a net negative effect on production.
To summarize:
More people + more demand + less supply +
more inflation + government spending + government restrictions
equals…
An inevitable, historic commodities super boom
The prices of commodities will hit record highs in the coming years. This is why I tell my readers and students to focus their portfolio on those areas that are tied to “human need” (such as commodities). Millions will get hurt by what is coming but those that are prepared can not only avoid losses but could potentially make fantastic gains.
by Paul Mladjenovic | May 12, 2009
what should people consider to keep growing their money? What sector will be the beneficiary of current (and expected) economic conditions? The short answer is a simple one: COMMODITIES. Why?
1. Demand. According to the World Population clock (found at the U.S. Census Bureau website), the world population on 7/1/08 was 6,710,926,117. A year later, the projected population for 7/1/09 is expected to be 6,790,062,216. That’s an increase of almost 80 million people in just twelve months. 80 million! At this rate, the world poulation will surpass 7 billion by 2012. Billions of people to feed, clothe and shelter. More people that want more stuff such as food, water, energy, materials and so on.
2. Supply. The supply situation for many commodities are tightening. Due to a variety of factors- weather, government restrictions, the credit crisis, etc. the natural resource sector has limited or falling production that will not be easy to increase in the coming months and years. Many commodities are facing conditions where their production may be peaking in the next few years. Total world oil production, for example, peaked in 2005 and has been steadily decreasing ever since. The recent financial and economic turmoil has only exaserbated the situation. Grains, base and precious metals are also experiencing production decreases. Old copper mines are being depleted and there have not been any new major copper discoveries. The bottom line is that commodities are not in abundance right now and it is a huge and serious question about adequate future supplies to meet growing demand.
3. Inflation. Yes…economic conditions have been “deflationary” but understand that prices have falled (or not risen) due to ‘supply and demand” factors as consumers have drastically pullled back their spending which in turn as forced businesses to contract. As businesses contract, they ultimately have to lay off workers who in turn spend less due to income loss. It becomes a vicious cycle. Therefore, market forces in these conditions have driven prices lower but “lower prices” are not “deflation”. The terms “inflation” and “deflation” are really references to the money supply (our currency). Our government (through our central bank, the Federal Reserve) has issued TRILLIONS of new dollars. This massive money creation and massive spending can not be done without consequences. All of this “over supply” of dollars will ultimately permeate our economy. The bottom line is that our economic necessities—food, water, energy, etc.—will rise in price.
4. More government spending. Those massive so-called “stimulus plans” by our government and other governments (such as China) will artificially push up demand for natural resources as infrastructure projects and other spending programs kick in.
5. Government restrictions. Many governments (including our own) are expanding regulations and taxes on business and production. This will have a net negative effect on production.
To summarize:
More people + more demand + less supply +
more inflation + government spending + government restrictions
equals…
An inevitable, historic commodities super boom
The prices of commodities will hit record highs in the coming years. This is why I tell my readers and students to focus their portfolio on those areas that are tied to “human need” (such as commodities). Millions will get hurt by what is coming but those that are prepared can not only avoid losses but could potentially make fantastic gains.
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Even Pessimists See Signs of Recovery
Now Joseph Stiglitz Is On The Green Shoots Bandwagon
May. 13, 2009, 6:13 AM
As the global economy shows signs of recovery, even pessimists start forecasting a rosy outlook. The Associate Press quoted European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet as telling a press conference in Basel, Switzerland on Monday, "We are, as far as growth is concerned, around the inflection point in the cycle." There have been significant signs of market recovery since mid-September last year, he added.
George Soros, the Chairman of Soros Fund Management, who had been skeptical about economic recovery only a month ago, was also quoted by the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Monday as saying, "The economic free-fall has stopped. Asia should be the first region to pull out of the crisis and China is set to overtake the United States as the engine of world growth."
Even those who are typically pessimistic, such as Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University, said on Thursday that the pace of recession is slowing down. Thomas Cooley, dean of the NYU Stern School of Business, who had been first to write an analysis report as the global economic crisis raised its ugly head last year, told CNN on May 6, "There are distinct signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy, parts of Europe and elsewhere. There is a definite sense that the worst is over."
Signs of economic recovery can also be seen in the composite leading index (CLI) released by the OECD on Monday. The CLI of 30 OECD member countries averaged 92.2 in March, down 0.2 points from the previous month. But some of the major countries' CLI rose, showing that their economies were improving, the Wall Street Journal reported -- including France, from 96.8 to 97.9, Italy from 96.6 to 97.4, and China from 92.1 to 93.0.
Now Joseph Stiglitz Is On The Green Shoots Bandwagon
May. 13, 2009, 6:13 AM
As the global economy shows signs of recovery, even pessimists start forecasting a rosy outlook. The Associate Press quoted European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet as telling a press conference in Basel, Switzerland on Monday, "We are, as far as growth is concerned, around the inflection point in the cycle." There have been significant signs of market recovery since mid-September last year, he added.
George Soros, the Chairman of Soros Fund Management, who had been skeptical about economic recovery only a month ago, was also quoted by the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Monday as saying, "The economic free-fall has stopped. Asia should be the first region to pull out of the crisis and China is set to overtake the United States as the engine of world growth."
Even those who are typically pessimistic, such as Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University, said on Thursday that the pace of recession is slowing down. Thomas Cooley, dean of the NYU Stern School of Business, who had been first to write an analysis report as the global economic crisis raised its ugly head last year, told CNN on May 6, "There are distinct signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy, parts of Europe and elsewhere. There is a definite sense that the worst is over."
Signs of economic recovery can also be seen in the composite leading index (CLI) released by the OECD on Monday. The CLI of 30 OECD member countries averaged 92.2 in March, down 0.2 points from the previous month. But some of the major countries' CLI rose, showing that their economies were improving, the Wall Street Journal reported -- including France, from 96.8 to 97.9, Italy from 96.6 to 97.4, and China from 92.1 to 93.0.
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U.S. yearly economic growth at September highs-ECRI
05.15.09, 11:45 AM EDT
NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - A measure of U.S. future
economic growth climbed in the latest week, sending its yearly
growth rate to levels last seen in September, a research group
said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index spiked to a 28-week high of 111.0 for the week ending May 8 from 109.7 in the previous week, which was revised higher from 109.3.
ECRI said it sees the U.S. recession ending sometime this
summer as the group's leading index touches its highest levels
this year.
The index's annualized growth rate continued to rise to a
32-week high of negative 13.6 percent from last week's rate of
15.6 percent, which was revised up from negative 16.1 percent.
'With the level of the WLI climbing to a 28-week high over
the last nine weeks, the light at the end of the recession tunnel is getting brighter,' said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The index level was up due to higher commodity prices and
stronger housing activity, and was partly offset by higher
jobless claims figures, Achuthan said.
05.15.09, 11:45 AM EDT
NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - A measure of U.S. future
economic growth climbed in the latest week, sending its yearly
growth rate to levels last seen in September, a research group
said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index spiked to a 28-week high of 111.0 for the week ending May 8 from 109.7 in the previous week, which was revised higher from 109.3.
ECRI said it sees the U.S. recession ending sometime this
summer as the group's leading index touches its highest levels
this year.
The index's annualized growth rate continued to rise to a
32-week high of negative 13.6 percent from last week's rate of
15.6 percent, which was revised up from negative 16.1 percent.
'With the level of the WLI climbing to a 28-week high over
the last nine weeks, the light at the end of the recession tunnel is getting brighter,' said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The index level was up due to higher commodity prices and
stronger housing activity, and was partly offset by higher
jobless claims figures, Achuthan said.
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May 15, 2009, 9:18 a.m. EST
U.S. May Empire State index highest since Aug.
Big improvement over last two months
Manufacturing activity in the New York area has improved significantly in the past two months, a signal that the downturn in the factory sector is moderating.
The New York Federal Reserve district bank reported Friday that its Empire State Manufacturing index rose to negative 4.6 in May, it's highest level since last August.
The index has jumped from negative 38.2 in March.
The Empire State index is relatively new, having started in 2001. The index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's May national factory survey due out in two weeks may show.
In April, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 40.1%, the highest reading since September, raising hope that worst of the decline in manufacturing was over.
Analysts at JP Morgan Chase noted that the troubles in the auto sector may weigh on manufacturing in other regions but the New York area is probably less affected.
But sentiment among manufacturers appears to be improving.
While 28% of respondents said conditions had worsened in May, 23% said that they had improved.
And the six-month outlook rose to 43.8 in May, its highest level since late 2007.
The new orders index fell to negative 9.0 in May from negative 3.9 in April, but is still well above the very low levels of October to March.
The shipments index rose above zero for the first time since last summer.
The prices received index fell to a record low.
There was only a slight improvement in the employment indexes.
The index for number of employees rose to negative 23.9 in May from negative 28.1 in April. This indicates further contraction in employment.
U.S. May Empire State index highest since Aug.
Big improvement over last two months
Manufacturing activity in the New York area has improved significantly in the past two months, a signal that the downturn in the factory sector is moderating.
The New York Federal Reserve district bank reported Friday that its Empire State Manufacturing index rose to negative 4.6 in May, it's highest level since last August.
The index has jumped from negative 38.2 in March.
The Empire State index is relatively new, having started in 2001. The index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's May national factory survey due out in two weeks may show.
In April, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 40.1%, the highest reading since September, raising hope that worst of the decline in manufacturing was over.
Analysts at JP Morgan Chase noted that the troubles in the auto sector may weigh on manufacturing in other regions but the New York area is probably less affected.
But sentiment among manufacturers appears to be improving.
While 28% of respondents said conditions had worsened in May, 23% said that they had improved.
And the six-month outlook rose to 43.8 in May, its highest level since late 2007.
The new orders index fell to negative 9.0 in May from negative 3.9 in April, but is still well above the very low levels of October to March.
The shipments index rose above zero for the first time since last summer.
The prices received index fell to a record low.
There was only a slight improvement in the employment indexes.
The index for number of employees rose to negative 23.9 in May from negative 28.1 in April. This indicates further contraction in employment.
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Mortgage applications rose 2.3% compared with the week before,
up 42% for the week ended May 15, compared with the same week a year ago.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The volume of mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3% compared with the week before, as mortgage rates fell, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
Applications were up 42% for the week ended May 15, compared with the same week a year ago. The MBA survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Refinance applications rose an unadjusted 4.5% last week, compared with the previous week. Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell a seasonally adjusted 4.4%.
The four-week moving average for all mortgages was down 6.4%.
Applications filed for refinance mortgages rose to 73.6% of all applications, up from 71.9% the previous week. The share of adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 2.4%, up from 2.3%.
Mortgage rates decreased last week, with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 4.69%, down from 4.76% the previous week; average points to obtain the mortgage also decreased to 1.13 last week from 1.18 the week before. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.
Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.44%, down from 4.50% the previous week; points decreased to 1.01 from 1.08. And 1-year ARMs averaged 6.38%, down from 6.41%; points decreased to 0.10 from 0.11.
up 42% for the week ended May 15, compared with the same week a year ago.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The volume of mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3% compared with the week before, as mortgage rates fell, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
Applications were up 42% for the week ended May 15, compared with the same week a year ago. The MBA survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Refinance applications rose an unadjusted 4.5% last week, compared with the previous week. Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell a seasonally adjusted 4.4%.
The four-week moving average for all mortgages was down 6.4%.
Applications filed for refinance mortgages rose to 73.6% of all applications, up from 71.9% the previous week. The share of adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 2.4%, up from 2.3%.
Mortgage rates decreased last week, with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 4.69%, down from 4.76% the previous week; average points to obtain the mortgage also decreased to 1.13 last week from 1.18 the week before. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.
Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.44%, down from 4.50% the previous week; points decreased to 1.01 from 1.08. And 1-year ARMs averaged 6.38%, down from 6.41%; points decreased to 0.10 from 0.11.
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Barton Biggs Predicts ‘Powerful’ Stock Market Rebound (Update1)
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, predicted a “strong and powerful recovery” in equities and recommended investors buy stocks in emerging markets because their economies are growing faster.
Federal programs aimed at ending the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression will lift the U.S. out of a recession and cause the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to extend its 31 percent rally since March 9, Biggs said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. The U.S. government has pledged more than $12.8 trillion to spurring economic growth and unfreezing credit markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There has been and continues to be an unprecedented amount of stimulus all around the world,” said Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. “The system has had an incredible adrenaline shot, so I think we’re going to have a pretty strong recovery.”
In a Nov. 6 interview, Biggs said the S&P 500 had probably reached its bear market low and estimated the index would rally to 1,100. The U.S. equity benchmark slid 7.5 percent that month and dropped to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9. The index has rebounded to 887.
His call on technology stocks was prescient. When Biggs spoke to Bloomberg Television on March 23, he said shares of large computer companies were attractive because of their cheap valuations. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index, this year’s second-best performer among 10 industries, has jumped 7.7 percent since the recommendation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, predicted a “strong and powerful recovery” in equities and recommended investors buy stocks in emerging markets because their economies are growing faster.
Federal programs aimed at ending the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression will lift the U.S. out of a recession and cause the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to extend its 31 percent rally since March 9, Biggs said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. The U.S. government has pledged more than $12.8 trillion to spurring economic growth and unfreezing credit markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There has been and continues to be an unprecedented amount of stimulus all around the world,” said Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. “The system has had an incredible adrenaline shot, so I think we’re going to have a pretty strong recovery.”
In a Nov. 6 interview, Biggs said the S&P 500 had probably reached its bear market low and estimated the index would rally to 1,100. The U.S. equity benchmark slid 7.5 percent that month and dropped to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9. The index has rebounded to 887.
His call on technology stocks was prescient. When Biggs spoke to Bloomberg Television on March 23, he said shares of large computer companies were attractive because of their cheap valuations. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index, this year’s second-best performer among 10 industries, has jumped 7.7 percent since the recommendation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Unemployment rate down in 21 states
Economic picture improves for some in April. Eleven states have no change in rate, while 18 and D.C. see jobless rate rise. Michigan still leads the nation.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The employment situation in the states showed signs of stabilizing last month.
The unemployment rate declined in 21 states in April, compared with the month before, while 11 states had no rate change, according to federal data released Friday.
The work situation, however, deteriorated in 18 states and Washington, D.C., last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A month earlier, unemployment rates rose in 46 states.
In April, Michigan once again led the nation with a jobless rate of 12.9%, up from 12.6% in March. Oregon, South Carolina, Rhode Island, California, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio all had rates exceeding 10%.
Nationally, the unemployment rate rose to 8.9% in April, up from 8.5% a month earlier.
Missouri saw the biggest drop in unemployment, falling 0.6% to an 8.1% rate in April. Alaska followed with a 0.4% decline to 8%.
Some states, however, suffered rising rates. West Virginia fared the largest jump in joblessness, with its rate climbing 0.7% to 7.5% in April. Rhode Island and Ohio followed with 0.5% increases to 11.1% and 10.2% respectively.
State budget woes
States and their budgets have been hammered by rising unemployment rates. Income and sales tax revenues decline as people lose their jobs and rein in their spending.
Many state leaders are scrambling now to close last-minute budget gaps that opened when April tax revenues came in below estimates. The fiscal year in 46 states ends on June 30, and unlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits.
State and local officials are also working to deploy federal stimulus dollars that are starting to flow to them. The White House estimates that the funds have created or saved 150,000 jobs and will create or save another 600,000 by August.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/22/news/ec ... 2009052212
Economic picture improves for some in April. Eleven states have no change in rate, while 18 and D.C. see jobless rate rise. Michigan still leads the nation.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The employment situation in the states showed signs of stabilizing last month.
The unemployment rate declined in 21 states in April, compared with the month before, while 11 states had no rate change, according to federal data released Friday.
The work situation, however, deteriorated in 18 states and Washington, D.C., last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A month earlier, unemployment rates rose in 46 states.
In April, Michigan once again led the nation with a jobless rate of 12.9%, up from 12.6% in March. Oregon, South Carolina, Rhode Island, California, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio all had rates exceeding 10%.
Nationally, the unemployment rate rose to 8.9% in April, up from 8.5% a month earlier.
Missouri saw the biggest drop in unemployment, falling 0.6% to an 8.1% rate in April. Alaska followed with a 0.4% decline to 8%.
Some states, however, suffered rising rates. West Virginia fared the largest jump in joblessness, with its rate climbing 0.7% to 7.5% in April. Rhode Island and Ohio followed with 0.5% increases to 11.1% and 10.2% respectively.
State budget woes
States and their budgets have been hammered by rising unemployment rates. Income and sales tax revenues decline as people lose their jobs and rein in their spending.
Many state leaders are scrambling now to close last-minute budget gaps that opened when April tax revenues came in below estimates. The fiscal year in 46 states ends on June 30, and unlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits.
State and local officials are also working to deploy federal stimulus dollars that are starting to flow to them. The White House estimates that the funds have created or saved 150,000 jobs and will create or save another 600,000 by August.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/22/news/ec ... 2009052212
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Steve Leuthold May Boost Stock Holdings to Almost 70% (Update1)
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, who turned bullish this year after profiting from the equity market rout in 2008, said he may invest almost 70 percent of some funds in stocks as the economy stabilizes.
He’s betting that large investment firms, which have cut equity holdings, will put more of their assets in U.S. stocks in an effort to avoid underperforming the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as the market continues to rally. Leuthold, who spoke in a Bloomberg Television interview, also said he’s buying gold, silver and Asian stocks on speculation the dollar will weaken.
Leuthold’s Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year as the S&P 500 posted the steepest annual retreat since 1937. He turned bullish in March, five days before the index sank to the lowest level in 12 years, telling Bloomberg TV that “every investor ought to be considering putting money into equities.” The measure has surged 30 percent since then, approaching his prediction of 1,100.
“When I said 1,100, people thought I was smoking something,” Leuthold, 71, said today. “Now it seems like a much more rational thing, and we are seeing many, many, many people that have said, ‘Hey, I’m going to wait until next year when the economy is improving,’ that are now saying, ‘Uh oh, I think we maybe better move before that.’”
On April 14, Leuthold said in an interview that the S&P 500 would surge to 1,100. The index closed at 908.13 yesterday, after sinking as low as 676.53 in March.
While the Grizzly Short Fund gained as the S&P 500 dropped in 2008, the Leuthold Core Investment Fund lost 27 percent. Still, that was less than the 38 percent retreat by the benchmark index for U.S. stocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, who turned bullish this year after profiting from the equity market rout in 2008, said he may invest almost 70 percent of some funds in stocks as the economy stabilizes.
He’s betting that large investment firms, which have cut equity holdings, will put more of their assets in U.S. stocks in an effort to avoid underperforming the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as the market continues to rally. Leuthold, who spoke in a Bloomberg Television interview, also said he’s buying gold, silver and Asian stocks on speculation the dollar will weaken.
Leuthold’s Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year as the S&P 500 posted the steepest annual retreat since 1937. He turned bullish in March, five days before the index sank to the lowest level in 12 years, telling Bloomberg TV that “every investor ought to be considering putting money into equities.” The measure has surged 30 percent since then, approaching his prediction of 1,100.
“When I said 1,100, people thought I was smoking something,” Leuthold, 71, said today. “Now it seems like a much more rational thing, and we are seeing many, many, many people that have said, ‘Hey, I’m going to wait until next year when the economy is improving,’ that are now saying, ‘Uh oh, I think we maybe better move before that.’”
On April 14, Leuthold said in an interview that the S&P 500 would surge to 1,100. The index closed at 908.13 yesterday, after sinking as low as 676.53 in March.
While the Grizzly Short Fund gained as the S&P 500 dropped in 2008, the Leuthold Core Investment Fund lost 27 percent. Still, that was less than the 38 percent retreat by the benchmark index for U.S. stocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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อีกด้านของเหรียญครับ จาก DAVID ROCHE
ผมชอบแกครับ แกพูดชัด ฟันธง ผิดถูกไม่ว่ากัน
ความเห็นแกเหมือนกับ MARC FABER และ JIM ROGERS
ที่ว่า This rally is built on sharky foundations. ลองอ่านดูนะครับ
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/64721998-448a ... ck_check=1
ผมชอบแกครับ แกพูดชัด ฟันธง ผิดถูกไม่ว่ากัน
ความเห็นแกเหมือนกับ MARC FABER และ JIM ROGERS
ที่ว่า This rally is built on sharky foundations. ลองอ่านดูนะครับ
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/64721998-448a ... ck_check=1
วันนี้คุณมีรองเท้าแล้วหรือยัง
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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decreased to 623,000 Last Week
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the biggest rounds of firings may be over.
Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ended May 23, lower than forecast, from a revised 636,000 the prior week, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose to a record in the prior week for the 17th straight time, reflecting restrained hiring.
Smaller job losses reduce the risk that consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will falter, delaying the economic recovery projected for later this year. Still, companies will be reluctant to add workers and increase production until sales show sustained gains.
``Claims confirm that labor market conditions are turning,'' Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. ``Layoffs will continue but the pace is slowing. This is reinforcing the notion that there's a diminished downdraft in consumer spending.''
Jobless claims were estimated to fall to 628,000 from 631,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median projection of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 600,000 to 650,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 626,750 from 629,750.
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 5.1 percent in the week ended May 16, the highest since December 1982, from 5 percent the prior week.
States and Territories
Thirty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in new claims for the week ended May 16, while 16 reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.
Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- slows.
While the economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, firings are slowing. Payrolls fell by 539,000 workers in April after dropping by 699,000 the prior month.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month projected the jobless rate, currently at a 25-year high of 8.9 percent, will climb to 9.6 percent by the end of 2009. This month's jobs report is due June 5.
Auto Industry
Claims in coming weeks may climb amid restructuring in the automotive industry. General Motors Corp. faces a June 1 deadline to achieve a swap of bondholder debt for equity and to win concessions from the United Auto Workers union, or file for bankruptcy as Chrysler LLC has.
Auto workers aren't the only ones losing jobs. KeyCorp, the second-largest bank based in Ohio, will cut more than 300 positions this quarter, Chief Executive Officer Henry Meyer said at the company's annual meeting this month.
For now, concern over job losses is one reason consumers are limiting spending. Saks Inc., a U.S. luxury-goods retailer, reported a smaller-than-forecast loss for the quarter ended May 2, and said while promotions are less aggressive compared to the end of last year, the economic environment remains challenging.
``We expect that the macroeconomic picture will remain extremely difficult for the balance of 2009, if not beyond, and we're continuing to plan accordingly,'' Chief Executive Officer Stephen Sadove said on a conference call on May 19.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the biggest rounds of firings may be over.
Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ended May 23, lower than forecast, from a revised 636,000 the prior week, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose to a record in the prior week for the 17th straight time, reflecting restrained hiring.
Smaller job losses reduce the risk that consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will falter, delaying the economic recovery projected for later this year. Still, companies will be reluctant to add workers and increase production until sales show sustained gains.
``Claims confirm that labor market conditions are turning,'' Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. ``Layoffs will continue but the pace is slowing. This is reinforcing the notion that there's a diminished downdraft in consumer spending.''
Jobless claims were estimated to fall to 628,000 from 631,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median projection of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 600,000 to 650,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 626,750 from 629,750.
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 5.1 percent in the week ended May 16, the highest since December 1982, from 5 percent the prior week.
States and Territories
Thirty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in new claims for the week ended May 16, while 16 reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.
Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- slows.
While the economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, firings are slowing. Payrolls fell by 539,000 workers in April after dropping by 699,000 the prior month.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month projected the jobless rate, currently at a 25-year high of 8.9 percent, will climb to 9.6 percent by the end of 2009. This month's jobs report is due June 5.
Auto Industry
Claims in coming weeks may climb amid restructuring in the automotive industry. General Motors Corp. faces a June 1 deadline to achieve a swap of bondholder debt for equity and to win concessions from the United Auto Workers union, or file for bankruptcy as Chrysler LLC has.
Auto workers aren't the only ones losing jobs. KeyCorp, the second-largest bank based in Ohio, will cut more than 300 positions this quarter, Chief Executive Officer Henry Meyer said at the company's annual meeting this month.
For now, concern over job losses is one reason consumers are limiting spending. Saks Inc., a U.S. luxury-goods retailer, reported a smaller-than-forecast loss for the quarter ended May 2, and said while promotions are less aggressive compared to the end of last year, the economic environment remains challenging.
``We expect that the macroeconomic picture will remain extremely difficult for the balance of 2009, if not beyond, and we're continuing to plan accordingly,'' Chief Executive Officer Stephen Sadove said on a conference call on May 19.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Japan’s Factory Output Surges 5.2% as Recession Eases (Update1)
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s industrial output rose the most in at least six years in April as companies replenished inventories amid evidence the global recession is easing.
Factory production climbed 5.2 percent from March, when it gained 1.6 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The increase was faster than the 3.3 percent expected by economists. Companies said they planned to increase output in May and June as well, the report showed.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this week the economy will resume growing this quarter after shrinking a record 15.2 percent in the three months ended March 31. Stimulus spending by governments around the world totaling $2.2 trillion has helped to prop up export markets and Japan’s own economic package has buoyed sentiment at home.
“This is not so much a green shoot as it is a green tree,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Optimism on Japan is certainly not misplaced as we look at a reasonably strong quarter of growth in April to June.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.1 percent at 9:17 a.m. in Tokyo. The yen traded at 96.51 per dollar from 96.76 before the report was published. The increase in output was the fastest since at least May 2003, Bloomberg data show.
Demand from abroad is starting to stabilize after unprecedented declines in the first quarter. Exports rose 1.9 percent in April from March, a second monthly gain.
Forecast More Gains
Businesses surveyed by the Trade Ministry said production will increase 8.8 percent in May and 2.7 percent in June. Inventories fell 2.7 percent in April from a month earlier.
On the domestic front, reports are mixed. Figures today showed the unemployment rate climbed to 5 percent in April, the highest in more than five years, and household spending slumped for a 14th month. Consumer sentiment has rebounded despite the worsening job market, climbing to a 10-month high after Prime Minister Taro Aso announced a record 15.4 trillion yen ($160 billion) package last month.
China’s $586 billion stimulus package has been a boon to Japanese manufacturers struggling with depressed sales in the U.S. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week raised its ratings of equipment-makers Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. and Komatsu Ltd., citing the prospect of increased business from China, where government spending is driving building investment.
“Confidence has turned,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “Even if corporate management thinks demand will be sluggish in the medium-to-long term, all of this fiscal support means there’s definitely demand in the short term.”
European Demand
Government incentives in Europe are also helping sales at carmakers including Mazda Motor Corp. The automaker said last week it will cancel plans to suspend production at a plant in Hiroshima in order to meet demand from Germany and France, where governments are encouraging consumers to trade in their old cars for more fuel-efficient models.
Similar measures in Japan are helping as well. Nissan Motor Co. said last week its domestic sales had risen about 30 percent this month, thanks to tax breaks on purchases of energy-saving vehicles.
Still, even as overseas shipments start to rise on a month-on-month basis, Japan is exporting a little more than half as much as last year and producing about a third less. That has saddled manufacturers with factories and workers they no longer need.
Nippon Steel Corp., the country’s biggest mill, is running at half capacity, according to the Nikkei newspaper. Smaller rival Nisshin Steel Co. said yesterday it will cut its workforce 9 percent by 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s industrial output rose the most in at least six years in April as companies replenished inventories amid evidence the global recession is easing.
Factory production climbed 5.2 percent from March, when it gained 1.6 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The increase was faster than the 3.3 percent expected by economists. Companies said they planned to increase output in May and June as well, the report showed.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this week the economy will resume growing this quarter after shrinking a record 15.2 percent in the three months ended March 31. Stimulus spending by governments around the world totaling $2.2 trillion has helped to prop up export markets and Japan’s own economic package has buoyed sentiment at home.
“This is not so much a green shoot as it is a green tree,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Optimism on Japan is certainly not misplaced as we look at a reasonably strong quarter of growth in April to June.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.1 percent at 9:17 a.m. in Tokyo. The yen traded at 96.51 per dollar from 96.76 before the report was published. The increase in output was the fastest since at least May 2003, Bloomberg data show.
Demand from abroad is starting to stabilize after unprecedented declines in the first quarter. Exports rose 1.9 percent in April from March, a second monthly gain.
Forecast More Gains
Businesses surveyed by the Trade Ministry said production will increase 8.8 percent in May and 2.7 percent in June. Inventories fell 2.7 percent in April from a month earlier.
On the domestic front, reports are mixed. Figures today showed the unemployment rate climbed to 5 percent in April, the highest in more than five years, and household spending slumped for a 14th month. Consumer sentiment has rebounded despite the worsening job market, climbing to a 10-month high after Prime Minister Taro Aso announced a record 15.4 trillion yen ($160 billion) package last month.
China’s $586 billion stimulus package has been a boon to Japanese manufacturers struggling with depressed sales in the U.S. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week raised its ratings of equipment-makers Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. and Komatsu Ltd., citing the prospect of increased business from China, where government spending is driving building investment.
“Confidence has turned,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “Even if corporate management thinks demand will be sluggish in the medium-to-long term, all of this fiscal support means there’s definitely demand in the short term.”
European Demand
Government incentives in Europe are also helping sales at carmakers including Mazda Motor Corp. The automaker said last week it will cancel plans to suspend production at a plant in Hiroshima in order to meet demand from Germany and France, where governments are encouraging consumers to trade in their old cars for more fuel-efficient models.
Similar measures in Japan are helping as well. Nissan Motor Co. said last week its domestic sales had risen about 30 percent this month, thanks to tax breaks on purchases of energy-saving vehicles.
Still, even as overseas shipments start to rise on a month-on-month basis, Japan is exporting a little more than half as much as last year and producing about a third less. That has saddled manufacturers with factories and workers they no longer need.
Nippon Steel Corp., the country’s biggest mill, is running at half capacity, according to the Nikkei newspaper. Smaller rival Nisshin Steel Co. said yesterday it will cut its workforce 9 percent by 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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Oil Rally Driven by Sentiment, Not Demand, OPEC Says (Update1)
By Fred Pals and Alexander Kwiatkowski
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oils rally is driven by improving sentiment about the global economy and isnt supported by crude demand, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said a day after the group decided to leave production targets unchanged.
Global crude stockpiles remain very high, El-Badri told reporters at a briefing in Vienna. Still, prices may reach $70 to $75 a barrel by the end of the year, partly because speculators are returning to commodity markets, he said.
There is a bullish sentiment, El-Badri said. When we look at fundamentals there is not much support, except for what we have seen in the economies of Asia.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies 40 percent of the worlds oil, held quotas steady at a meeting yesterday. Crude futures have surged 29 percent in May, headed for their biggest monthly gain since 1999.
El-Badri urged members to improve compliance with existing oil production quotas to bring down global crude stockpiles. OPEC members are complying with 79 percent of agreed production cuts, he added.
Oil futures, set for their biggest month gain since 1999, gained as much as 93 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $66.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.
Speculators Return
Speculation is coming back, not only in oil but in all commodities, El-Badri said. We see that they are coming back slowly. We dont want to see them again but we cant eliminate them.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended May 19, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
OPECs policy of draining global crude stockpiles is being undermined by rising production from countries outside the group, the secretary-general said.
None of them reduced their production, all of them increased production with the exception of Mexico, El-Badri said. They did not really give any hand to the oil market.
Oil demand would need to recover and stockpiles drop before OPEC could consider raising production quotas again, he said.
Crude inventories in the industrial economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are at their highest since 1993, according to the International Energy Agency. Stocks were equivalent to 62 days of consumption as of the first quarter of the year, the IEA said in its monthly oil report May 14.
Those supplies would have to drop to the equivalent of 52 days for OPEC to consider boosting output, El-Badri said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... vFor7RMoVM
แถมกราฟ inventory and demand ให้นะครับ
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By Fred Pals and Alexander Kwiatkowski
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oils rally is driven by improving sentiment about the global economy and isnt supported by crude demand, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said a day after the group decided to leave production targets unchanged.
Global crude stockpiles remain very high, El-Badri told reporters at a briefing in Vienna. Still, prices may reach $70 to $75 a barrel by the end of the year, partly because speculators are returning to commodity markets, he said.
There is a bullish sentiment, El-Badri said. When we look at fundamentals there is not much support, except for what we have seen in the economies of Asia.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies 40 percent of the worlds oil, held quotas steady at a meeting yesterday. Crude futures have surged 29 percent in May, headed for their biggest monthly gain since 1999.
El-Badri urged members to improve compliance with existing oil production quotas to bring down global crude stockpiles. OPEC members are complying with 79 percent of agreed production cuts, he added.
Oil futures, set for their biggest month gain since 1999, gained as much as 93 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $66.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.
Speculators Return
Speculation is coming back, not only in oil but in all commodities, El-Badri said. We see that they are coming back slowly. We dont want to see them again but we cant eliminate them.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended May 19, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
OPECs policy of draining global crude stockpiles is being undermined by rising production from countries outside the group, the secretary-general said.
None of them reduced their production, all of them increased production with the exception of Mexico, El-Badri said. They did not really give any hand to the oil market.
Oil demand would need to recover and stockpiles drop before OPEC could consider raising production quotas again, he said.
Crude inventories in the industrial economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are at their highest since 1993, according to the International Energy Agency. Stocks were equivalent to 62 days of consumption as of the first quarter of the year, the IEA said in its monthly oil report May 14.
Those supplies would have to drop to the equivalent of 52 days for OPEC to consider boosting output, El-Badri said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... vFor7RMoVM
แถมกราฟ inventory and demand ให้นะครับ
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/200 ... rrels.html
ถ้าคลิกเข้าไปจะเห็นว่า inventory สูงปี๊ด...demand ลดฮวบ
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Unemployment in U.S. Probably Surpassed 9% in May (Update1)
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By Shobhana Chandra
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in the U.S. probably surpassed 9 percent in May for the first time in more than 25 years, underscoring forecasts that the economy will be slow to pull out of the worst recession in half a century, economists said before a report this week.
The jobless rate climbed to 9.2 percent, the highest level since September 1983, according to the median of 59 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the June 5 Labor Department report. Other data may show manufacturing and service industries shrank at a slower pace and consumer spending dropped.
The economy is decaying at a slower rate and that is the best you can say, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. I cant tell you we are out of the woods yet.
Economists forecast the jobless rate will head to almost 10 percent by the end of the year, depriving Americans of the income needed to propel spending and stoke a vigorous recovery. Access to credit will likely also be limited as record defaults and foreclosures make banks reluctant to lend.
The unemployment rate is predicted to rise from 8.9 percent in April. Payrolls probably fell by 521,000 this month after declining by 539,000 in April, the median of 60 estimates showed. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
The economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump in the post-World War II era.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... er=economy
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By Shobhana Chandra
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in the U.S. probably surpassed 9 percent in May for the first time in more than 25 years, underscoring forecasts that the economy will be slow to pull out of the worst recession in half a century, economists said before a report this week.
The jobless rate climbed to 9.2 percent, the highest level since September 1983, according to the median of 59 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the June 5 Labor Department report. Other data may show manufacturing and service industries shrank at a slower pace and consumer spending dropped.
The economy is decaying at a slower rate and that is the best you can say, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. I cant tell you we are out of the woods yet.
Economists forecast the jobless rate will head to almost 10 percent by the end of the year, depriving Americans of the income needed to propel spending and stoke a vigorous recovery. Access to credit will likely also be limited as record defaults and foreclosures make banks reluctant to lend.
The unemployment rate is predicted to rise from 8.9 percent in April. Payrolls probably fell by 521,000 this month after declining by 539,000 in April, the median of 60 estimates showed. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
The economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump in the post-World War II era.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... er=economy
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Chinese Manufacturing Grows, Adding to Recovery Signs (Update1)
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, driving stocks to the biggest gain since March and adding to evidence that the economy is recovering.
The official Purchasing Manager’s Index was at a seasonally adjusted 53.1 in May after registering 53.5 in April, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.
A surge in lending and investment and rising retail sales have spurred confidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is reviving growth in the world’s third-biggest economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today that the global recession may be easing, helped partly by China’s “very forceful” measures.
“The Chinese economy is well on track for recovery and economic growth is picking up steam,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.4 percent, taking this year’s gain to 49 percent as investors bet that stimulus spending will revive earnings. Jiangxi Copper Co., the country’s biggest producer of the metal, surged 9.1 percent. Australia’s dollar traded near an eight-month high on optimism that demand for commodities will rise.
‘Signs of Improvement’
The world economy is seeing “initial signs of improvement,” Geithner said in Beijing today. He’s meeting Chinese leaders as they grapple with the nation’s deepest economic slump in almost a decade.
U.S. manufacturing probably shrank in May at the slowest pace in eight months, a further sign that the worst of the slump may be over, economists said before a report today. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to the highest level since September, according to the median forecast of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
In China, a second manufacturing index released today, by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, also showed an expansion.
“For the first time the PMI shows genuine evidence that policy really is gaining traction,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong. A jump in orders and declines in companies’ inventories suggest “sustained output growth in months to come.”
By the end of April, China had built 20,000 kilometers (12,430 miles) of rural roads, 214,000 low-rent homes, 445 kilometers of highway, and 100,000 square meters (1.08 million square feet) of airport buildings under the stimulus plan, the National Development and Reform Commission said on May 21.
Industrial Output
“Economic growth may continue to pick up in the future as accelerating investment and consumer demand boost industrial production,” Zhang Liqun, an economist at the State Council Development and Research Center, said in a statement with the official PMI.
Zhang said that while business sentiment remains “weak,” a PMI reading above 50 shows that “the economy will continue to recover.”
In the government-backed PMI, the export order index increased to 50.1, the first expansion in 11 months. The output index fell to 56.9 from 57.4 and the new order index dropped to 56.2 from 56.6.
Dongfeng Motor Group Co., China’s third-largest automaker, said stimulus measures helped boost sales in the first four months of the year.
Industrial production growth may accelerate to 8 percent this quarter as stimulus spending gathers momentum, up from 7.3 percent last month and 5.1 percent in the first three months, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said May 22. Output may increase 10 percent in the second half, it added.
China’s economic growth may quicken to 6.8 percent this quarter from 6.1 percent in the first three months, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
The official PMI, released jointly with the statistics bureau, spans measures of manufacturing activity including orders, inventories, output and employment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month, driving stocks to the biggest gain since March and adding to evidence that the economy is recovering.
The official Purchasing Manager’s Index was at a seasonally adjusted 53.1 in May after registering 53.5 in April, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.
A surge in lending and investment and rising retail sales have spurred confidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is reviving growth in the world’s third-biggest economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today that the global recession may be easing, helped partly by China’s “very forceful” measures.
“The Chinese economy is well on track for recovery and economic growth is picking up steam,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.4 percent, taking this year’s gain to 49 percent as investors bet that stimulus spending will revive earnings. Jiangxi Copper Co., the country’s biggest producer of the metal, surged 9.1 percent. Australia’s dollar traded near an eight-month high on optimism that demand for commodities will rise.
‘Signs of Improvement’
The world economy is seeing “initial signs of improvement,” Geithner said in Beijing today. He’s meeting Chinese leaders as they grapple with the nation’s deepest economic slump in almost a decade.
U.S. manufacturing probably shrank in May at the slowest pace in eight months, a further sign that the worst of the slump may be over, economists said before a report today. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to the highest level since September, according to the median forecast of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
In China, a second manufacturing index released today, by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, also showed an expansion.
“For the first time the PMI shows genuine evidence that policy really is gaining traction,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong. A jump in orders and declines in companies’ inventories suggest “sustained output growth in months to come.”
By the end of April, China had built 20,000 kilometers (12,430 miles) of rural roads, 214,000 low-rent homes, 445 kilometers of highway, and 100,000 square meters (1.08 million square feet) of airport buildings under the stimulus plan, the National Development and Reform Commission said on May 21.
Industrial Output
“Economic growth may continue to pick up in the future as accelerating investment and consumer demand boost industrial production,” Zhang Liqun, an economist at the State Council Development and Research Center, said in a statement with the official PMI.
Zhang said that while business sentiment remains “weak,” a PMI reading above 50 shows that “the economy will continue to recover.”
In the government-backed PMI, the export order index increased to 50.1, the first expansion in 11 months. The output index fell to 56.9 from 57.4 and the new order index dropped to 56.2 from 56.6.
Dongfeng Motor Group Co., China’s third-largest automaker, said stimulus measures helped boost sales in the first four months of the year.
Industrial production growth may accelerate to 8 percent this quarter as stimulus spending gathers momentum, up from 7.3 percent last month and 5.1 percent in the first three months, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said May 22. Output may increase 10 percent in the second half, it added.
China’s economic growth may quicken to 6.8 percent this quarter from 6.1 percent in the first three months, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
The official PMI, released jointly with the statistics bureau, spans measures of manufacturing activity including orders, inventories, output and employment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
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India GDP grows better-than-expected 5.8%
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) - India reported Friday that its economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the fiscal fourth quarter, due in no small part to a recent spending spree from the government, and with growth likely to pick up speed going forward.
India's gross domestic product jumped 5.8% in the quarter ended March 31 from the year-ago period, coming in a total of to 9.03 trillion rupees ($191 billion), the data showed.
Though significantly lower than the comparative results last year, the reading strengthened expectations the economy will grow faster in the fiscal second-half of the year that began on April 1, giving a boost Friday to both the rupee and the stock market.
The increase was stronger than the 5% growth estimated in a survey of analysts by FactSet Research, and matches the 5.8% upwardly revised expansion in the October-December quarter.
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"It's beaten market expectations primarily because the government has started spending," said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at ratings agency Crisil. "I think the last quarter saw some push in expenditure in categories such as community social services, which includes both wages to government employees as well as some other kind of stimulus."
The quarterly economic growth still represented a marked slowdown from the 8.6% increase in the same quarter a year earlier, as private consumption and investments eased in the wake of the global financial crisis.
For the full year, India's GDP grew 6.7%, slowing from 9% in the previous year.
Joshi said Crisil -- a subsidiary of Standard & Poor's -- currently estimates India's economy will grow between 5.5% and 6% in the current financial year.
He said hopes of fiscal stability following the return of the United Progressive Alliance government after recent general elections have improved chances of attaining 6% growth this year.
The data boosted Indian shares in Mumbai morning trading, with the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, climbing 2.6% to 14,671.80.
In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar was changing hands for 47.31 rupees in early trade, compared with 47.50 rupees late Thursday
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/india- ... -estimates
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) - India reported Friday that its economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the fiscal fourth quarter, due in no small part to a recent spending spree from the government, and with growth likely to pick up speed going forward.
India's gross domestic product jumped 5.8% in the quarter ended March 31 from the year-ago period, coming in a total of to 9.03 trillion rupees ($191 billion), the data showed.
Though significantly lower than the comparative results last year, the reading strengthened expectations the economy will grow faster in the fiscal second-half of the year that began on April 1, giving a boost Friday to both the rupee and the stock market.
The increase was stronger than the 5% growth estimated in a survey of analysts by FactSet Research, and matches the 5.8% upwardly revised expansion in the October-December quarter.
55
50
45
40
J
J
A
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09
F
M
A
M
"It's beaten market expectations primarily because the government has started spending," said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at ratings agency Crisil. "I think the last quarter saw some push in expenditure in categories such as community social services, which includes both wages to government employees as well as some other kind of stimulus."
The quarterly economic growth still represented a marked slowdown from the 8.6% increase in the same quarter a year earlier, as private consumption and investments eased in the wake of the global financial crisis.
For the full year, India's GDP grew 6.7%, slowing from 9% in the previous year.
Joshi said Crisil -- a subsidiary of Standard & Poor's -- currently estimates India's economy will grow between 5.5% and 6% in the current financial year.
He said hopes of fiscal stability following the return of the United Progressive Alliance government after recent general elections have improved chances of attaining 6% growth this year.
The data boosted Indian shares in Mumbai morning trading, with the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, climbing 2.6% to 14,671.80.
In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar was changing hands for 47.31 rupees in early trade, compared with 47.50 rupees late Thursday
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/india- ... -estimates
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New Oil Shock is "Inevitable"
By Paul Kedrosky · Tuesday, May 26, 2009
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/ ... ock_i.html
By Paul Kedrosky · Tuesday, May 26, 2009
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/ ... ock_i.html
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PMI ยูโรโซนกระเตื้องส่อแววเศรษฐกิจใกล้ฟื้น
รายงาน ข่าวจากเดอะ วอลล์ สตรีต เจอร์นัล ระบุว่า ภาคอุตสาหกรรมในยุโรปยังคงอยู่ในระยะหดตัวในเดือน พ.ค. ไม่ว่าจะในอังกฤษ เยอรมนี อิตาลี ฝรั่งเศส แต่อย่างไรก็ตาม ในเดือน พ.ค. ที่ผ่านมากลับมีแนวโน้มให้เห็นว่า การหดตัวของภาคอุตสาหกรรในเขตยูโรโซนนั้นได้ค่อยๆ ลดลงแล้วเมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงานหรือ PMI เมื่อเดือนเม.ย.
ทั้งนี้ โดยการเปิดเผยของมาร์กิต อีโคโนมิค ระบุว่า PMI ในภาคอุตสาหกรรมยูโรโซนเดือน พ.ค. อยู่ที่ 40.7 เพิ่มขึ้นจากเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 36.8 และยังเป็นการเพิ่มขึ้นมากถึง 3.9% ซึ่งนับว่าเพิ่มขึ้นมากที่สุดในนับตั้งแต่เดือน มิ.ย. 2540 ทั้งนี้ การจัดทำดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงาน หากมีค่าต่ำกว่า 50 แสดงว่า มีภาวะหดตัว และในยูโรโซน PMI ในเดือน พ.ค. ก็ได้กระเตื้องขึ้นมาจากระดับต่ำสุดนับตั้งแต่ต้นปี สถานการณ์นี้ได้บ่งชี้ให้เห็นถึงความหวังที่เศรษฐกิจในยุโรปน่าจะผ่านจุดต่ำ สุดมาแล้ว เมื่อการคำนวณใช้ฐานข้อมูลจากปัจจัยทางเศรษฐกิจในเยอรมนี ฝรั่งเศส อิตาลี สเปน ไอร์แลนด์ ออสเตรีย กรีซ และเนเธอร์แลนด์ ซึ่งมีขนาดของกิจกรรมของภาคอุตสาหกรรม 92% ของทั้งภูมิภาค
นอกจากนี้ PMI ยูโรโซนในเดือน พ.ค. ยังสูงกว่าที่คาดการณ์ไว้เมื่อ 21 พ.ค. ซึ่งคาดว่าจะอยู่ท 40.5 อีกด้วย แม้ว่าอัตราการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจในยุโรปของปีนี้ จะติดลบ 4.2% ซึ่งนับเป็นการหดตัวที่มากที่สุดนับตั้งแต่สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 2 ตามการคาดการณ์ของกองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (ไอเอ็มเอฟ) พร้อมกับหลายบริษัทถูกจำกัดการลงทุนเนื่องจากธนาคารไม่ปล่อยกู้ อัตราการว่างงานเพิ่มขึ้นสูงสุดในรอบ 4 ปี และธนาคารกลางยุโรป (อีซีบี) ประกาศลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยอ้างอิงเมื่อเดือนก่อนลงสู่ระดับต่ำสุด อยู่ที่ 1%
ส่วน PMI ในประเทศสำคัญในยุโรป ก็มีแนวโน้มหดตัวลดลงเมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับเดือน เม.ย. โดยจากการจัดทำข้อมูลดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงานโดยมาร์กิต อิโคโนมิคส์ และชาร์ตเตอร์ อินสติติว ออฟ เพอร์เชซิ่ง แอนด์ ซัพพลาย ระบุว่า ภาคอุตสาหกรรมของอังกฤษหดตัวลงติดต่อกันเป็นเดือน ที่ 14 แต่ก็มีระดับที่สูงขึ้นกว่าเดือนเม.ย. คืออยู่ที่ 45.5 ทั้งที่การคาดการณ์เมื่อ เม.ย. อยู่ 43.1 และในเดือน ก.พ. อยู่ 34.9
ใน เยอรมนี มี PMI 39.6 เปรียบเทียบกับเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 35.4 ฝรั่งเศสอยู่ที่ 43.3 เพิ่มขึ้นจากที่คาดการณ์ก่อนหน้าว่าน่าจะอยู่ที่ 43.1 อิตาลี มีดัชนีอยู่ที่ 41.1 เพิ่มขึ้นจากเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 37.2
http://www.matichon.co.th/prachachat/ne ... 22&catid=8
รายงาน ข่าวจากเดอะ วอลล์ สตรีต เจอร์นัล ระบุว่า ภาคอุตสาหกรรมในยุโรปยังคงอยู่ในระยะหดตัวในเดือน พ.ค. ไม่ว่าจะในอังกฤษ เยอรมนี อิตาลี ฝรั่งเศส แต่อย่างไรก็ตาม ในเดือน พ.ค. ที่ผ่านมากลับมีแนวโน้มให้เห็นว่า การหดตัวของภาคอุตสาหกรรในเขตยูโรโซนนั้นได้ค่อยๆ ลดลงแล้วเมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงานหรือ PMI เมื่อเดือนเม.ย.
ทั้งนี้ โดยการเปิดเผยของมาร์กิต อีโคโนมิค ระบุว่า PMI ในภาคอุตสาหกรรมยูโรโซนเดือน พ.ค. อยู่ที่ 40.7 เพิ่มขึ้นจากเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 36.8 และยังเป็นการเพิ่มขึ้นมากถึง 3.9% ซึ่งนับว่าเพิ่มขึ้นมากที่สุดในนับตั้งแต่เดือน มิ.ย. 2540 ทั้งนี้ การจัดทำดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงาน หากมีค่าต่ำกว่า 50 แสดงว่า มีภาวะหดตัว และในยูโรโซน PMI ในเดือน พ.ค. ก็ได้กระเตื้องขึ้นมาจากระดับต่ำสุดนับตั้งแต่ต้นปี สถานการณ์นี้ได้บ่งชี้ให้เห็นถึงความหวังที่เศรษฐกิจในยุโรปน่าจะผ่านจุดต่ำ สุดมาแล้ว เมื่อการคำนวณใช้ฐานข้อมูลจากปัจจัยทางเศรษฐกิจในเยอรมนี ฝรั่งเศส อิตาลี สเปน ไอร์แลนด์ ออสเตรีย กรีซ และเนเธอร์แลนด์ ซึ่งมีขนาดของกิจกรรมของภาคอุตสาหกรรม 92% ของทั้งภูมิภาค
นอกจากนี้ PMI ยูโรโซนในเดือน พ.ค. ยังสูงกว่าที่คาดการณ์ไว้เมื่อ 21 พ.ค. ซึ่งคาดว่าจะอยู่ท 40.5 อีกด้วย แม้ว่าอัตราการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจในยุโรปของปีนี้ จะติดลบ 4.2% ซึ่งนับเป็นการหดตัวที่มากที่สุดนับตั้งแต่สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 2 ตามการคาดการณ์ของกองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (ไอเอ็มเอฟ) พร้อมกับหลายบริษัทถูกจำกัดการลงทุนเนื่องจากธนาคารไม่ปล่อยกู้ อัตราการว่างงานเพิ่มขึ้นสูงสุดในรอบ 4 ปี และธนาคารกลางยุโรป (อีซีบี) ประกาศลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยอ้างอิงเมื่อเดือนก่อนลงสู่ระดับต่ำสุด อยู่ที่ 1%
ส่วน PMI ในประเทศสำคัญในยุโรป ก็มีแนวโน้มหดตัวลดลงเมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับเดือน เม.ย. โดยจากการจัดทำข้อมูลดัชนีจัดซื้อจากโรงงานโดยมาร์กิต อิโคโนมิคส์ และชาร์ตเตอร์ อินสติติว ออฟ เพอร์เชซิ่ง แอนด์ ซัพพลาย ระบุว่า ภาคอุตสาหกรรมของอังกฤษหดตัวลงติดต่อกันเป็นเดือน ที่ 14 แต่ก็มีระดับที่สูงขึ้นกว่าเดือนเม.ย. คืออยู่ที่ 45.5 ทั้งที่การคาดการณ์เมื่อ เม.ย. อยู่ 43.1 และในเดือน ก.พ. อยู่ 34.9
ใน เยอรมนี มี PMI 39.6 เปรียบเทียบกับเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 35.4 ฝรั่งเศสอยู่ที่ 43.3 เพิ่มขึ้นจากที่คาดการณ์ก่อนหน้าว่าน่าจะอยู่ที่ 43.1 อิตาลี มีดัชนีอยู่ที่ 41.1 เพิ่มขึ้นจากเดือน เม.ย. ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 37.2
http://www.matichon.co.th/prachachat/ne ... 22&catid=8
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โพสต์ที่ 60
Mfg index up to 42.8 in May, beats expectations
Reports signal improvements in manufacturing around the world
NEW YORK (AP) -- On the same day of manufacturing icon General Motors Corp.'s bankruptcy filing, reports on the industrial sector from around the globe seemed to show the sector on the mend.
The decline in U.S. manufacturing slowed in May, a trade group reported Monday, and the sector is faring better than analysts had expected. Similar reports from Asia and Europe also showed improvements in manufacturing.
Companies used up huge stocks of inventories in the first quarter, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc., boosting new orders to manufacturers and pumping up production.
The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management said its index on manufacturing came in at 42.8 -- its highest level since September -- compared with 40.1 in April. A reading below 50 still indicates contraction, but the measure has been shrinking more slowly every month since December.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to read 42 for May.
Still, even after the sector starts to grow again, it will be a "low-growth" scenario, said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing report.
"A low-growth scenario probably means a jobless recovery as far as manufacturing is concerned," Ore said. The "overall spending level, debt level of the country isn't going to support a high growth rate. I don't see the drivers that would drive us to a high growth scenario" -- namely, confident consumers and free-spending businesses.
On Monday, the government said consumer spending slipped 0.1 percent in April. It was the second straight month that consumers spent less -- even as their incomes grew by 0.5 percent. The personal savings rate grew to 5.7 percent, the highest since February 1995.
And even beyond the auto sector, major manufacturers in many sectors continue to discharge workers.
Last month, medical technology maker Medtronic Inc. said it would eliminate up to 1,800 positions, and computer giant Hewlett-Packard Co. about 6,400.
Even though ISM noted that May's decline was the 16th straight month of contraction in manufacturing, the report showed "signs of improvement" since last month and the 28-year low of 32.9 in December.
An index of new orders rose to 51.1 in May from 47.2 in April. It was the first month of growth in the new-orders index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth.
Growth in new orders from businesses and consumers means manufacturers will need to ramp up production. At the same time, an index of customer inventories fell below 50 for the second straight month, which means manufacturers' clients will probably need to restock.
The production index clocked in at 46 from 40.4 in April -- the ninth consecutive decline.
"ISM is being lifted partly by a catching-up or rebound after the post-Lehman plunge, during which time companies seem to have slashed their spending more deeply than was sustainable, and partly by an unfreezing of world trade," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.
Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, sinking markets and sparking a global crisis in financing.
ISM also said that while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, a level above 41.2, if sustained over time, has historically signaled an expansion of the overall economy. The ISM hadn't been above 41.2 in seven months.
But some experts said historical indicators don't necessarily apply now.
"This is a once-in-a-lifetime recession being controlled by a debt bubble," Shapiro said. "The normal road map doesn't apply."
While the free-fall in manufacturing may be over, he said, a recovery could be limited to a weak level.
Economists also noted that the prices manufacturers paid were moving higher, which would weigh on earnings. That is due in part to oil prices' surge higher, nailing a a new year high above $68 a barrel Monday.
Last year's skyrocketing oil prices to near $150 a barrel inflicted major damage on the economy.
The Commerce Department last week said the economy contracted at a 5.7 percent pace in the first quarter following a 6.3 percent annualized drop in the fourth quarter of 2008, the biggest in a quarter century. Still, analysts are hopeful the economy is on the mend and is shrinking at a much slower pace now.
The data from ISM, made up of indicators including new orders, production, employment, inventories, prices, and export and import orders, comes on top of reports indicating an easing in the manufacturing crunch in China, Britain and the euro zone.
Two gauges of manufacturing in China indicated expansion. The brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said its monthly purchasing managers index rose to 51.2 in May from April's 50.1. The official China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its own measure slipped to 53.1 from April's 53.5 -- still a growth reading.
Meanwhile, in Europe, data provider Markit said its monthly purchasing managers index for the euro-using countries was revised up to a seven-month high of 40.7 last month from 40.5.
And a British measure rose for the third straight month to 45.4 in May from 43.1 in April.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mfg-index ... et=&ccode=
Reports signal improvements in manufacturing around the world
NEW YORK (AP) -- On the same day of manufacturing icon General Motors Corp.'s bankruptcy filing, reports on the industrial sector from around the globe seemed to show the sector on the mend.
The decline in U.S. manufacturing slowed in May, a trade group reported Monday, and the sector is faring better than analysts had expected. Similar reports from Asia and Europe also showed improvements in manufacturing.
Companies used up huge stocks of inventories in the first quarter, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc., boosting new orders to manufacturers and pumping up production.
The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management said its index on manufacturing came in at 42.8 -- its highest level since September -- compared with 40.1 in April. A reading below 50 still indicates contraction, but the measure has been shrinking more slowly every month since December.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to read 42 for May.
Still, even after the sector starts to grow again, it will be a "low-growth" scenario, said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing report.
"A low-growth scenario probably means a jobless recovery as far as manufacturing is concerned," Ore said. The "overall spending level, debt level of the country isn't going to support a high growth rate. I don't see the drivers that would drive us to a high growth scenario" -- namely, confident consumers and free-spending businesses.
On Monday, the government said consumer spending slipped 0.1 percent in April. It was the second straight month that consumers spent less -- even as their incomes grew by 0.5 percent. The personal savings rate grew to 5.7 percent, the highest since February 1995.
And even beyond the auto sector, major manufacturers in many sectors continue to discharge workers.
Last month, medical technology maker Medtronic Inc. said it would eliminate up to 1,800 positions, and computer giant Hewlett-Packard Co. about 6,400.
Even though ISM noted that May's decline was the 16th straight month of contraction in manufacturing, the report showed "signs of improvement" since last month and the 28-year low of 32.9 in December.
An index of new orders rose to 51.1 in May from 47.2 in April. It was the first month of growth in the new-orders index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth.
Growth in new orders from businesses and consumers means manufacturers will need to ramp up production. At the same time, an index of customer inventories fell below 50 for the second straight month, which means manufacturers' clients will probably need to restock.
The production index clocked in at 46 from 40.4 in April -- the ninth consecutive decline.
"ISM is being lifted partly by a catching-up or rebound after the post-Lehman plunge, during which time companies seem to have slashed their spending more deeply than was sustainable, and partly by an unfreezing of world trade," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.
Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, sinking markets and sparking a global crisis in financing.
ISM also said that while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, a level above 41.2, if sustained over time, has historically signaled an expansion of the overall economy. The ISM hadn't been above 41.2 in seven months.
But some experts said historical indicators don't necessarily apply now.
"This is a once-in-a-lifetime recession being controlled by a debt bubble," Shapiro said. "The normal road map doesn't apply."
While the free-fall in manufacturing may be over, he said, a recovery could be limited to a weak level.
Economists also noted that the prices manufacturers paid were moving higher, which would weigh on earnings. That is due in part to oil prices' surge higher, nailing a a new year high above $68 a barrel Monday.
Last year's skyrocketing oil prices to near $150 a barrel inflicted major damage on the economy.
The Commerce Department last week said the economy contracted at a 5.7 percent pace in the first quarter following a 6.3 percent annualized drop in the fourth quarter of 2008, the biggest in a quarter century. Still, analysts are hopeful the economy is on the mend and is shrinking at a much slower pace now.
The data from ISM, made up of indicators including new orders, production, employment, inventories, prices, and export and import orders, comes on top of reports indicating an easing in the manufacturing crunch in China, Britain and the euro zone.
Two gauges of manufacturing in China indicated expansion. The brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said its monthly purchasing managers index rose to 51.2 in May from April's 50.1. The official China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its own measure slipped to 53.1 from April's 53.5 -- still a growth reading.
Meanwhile, in Europe, data provider Markit said its monthly purchasing managers index for the euro-using countries was revised up to a seven-month high of 40.7 last month from 40.5.
And a British measure rose for the third straight month to 45.4 in May from 43.1 in April.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mfg-index ... et=&ccode=
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