ดังนั้น การคาดการณ์ตลาดหุ้นต้องใช้ leading ที่เป็น ระดับ super leading indicator อีกที
ทุกคนยอมรับใช่ไหมว่า จีนเป็นประเทสที่ฟื้นตัวเร็วที่สุดในโลก ตลาดหุ้นจีนก็ฟื้นเร็วกว่าตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลก...นี่ก็ชัดอยู่แล้ว
ว่ามันคือ super leading indicator บอกได้เร็วกว่าดัชนีหุ้นโลก
เวลาลง มันก็จะเริ่มลงเร็วกว่าหุ้นโลก 1.5-2 เดือน
แล้วตอนนี้ก็ถึงเวลาที่ทั่วโลกจะเริ่มลงตาม "หุ้นจีน" แล้ว
LOSO เขียน:
Buffett said today, adding that he doesn’t expect a “double-dip” recession.
LOSO เขียน:U.S. Double-Dip Recession "Out of the Question": ECRI
August 28, 2009
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests chances of a double-dip recession are slim.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week to August 21 fell to 124.4 from a downwardly revised 124.9 the prior week, which was originally reported at 125.0.
But the index's annualized growth rate soared to a 38-year high of 19.6 percent from a downwardly revised 17.4 percent the prior week, a number which was originally 17.5 percent.
It was the WLI's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to May 28, 1971, when it stood at 20.5 percent.
"With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group's recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections.
He added that the index was pulled down this week due to higher interest rates.
Achuthan has recently projected that the recovery is moving at a stronger pace than any the United States has seen since the early 1980s.
(Reporting by Camille Drummond, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Ukraine's Naftogaz indicates default on bonds- AP
Ukraine's debt-laden state energy company Naftogaz on Thursday effectively defaulted on its $500 million Eurobond issue after it failed to make a payment on time, but a deal on restructuring the debt was expected soon.
Gold Tells You U.S. Bubble Hasnt Popped Yet: Alice Schroeder
Commentary by Alice Schroeder
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- If you owned stocks and gold and had to sell one, which would it be?
The Standard & Poors 500 Index has gained almost 60 percent since its low on March 9. Gold is near a record price. I know a fair number of people who would keep the gold.
Ive never been a gold bug myself. They get no respect. They are associated with survivalists, conspiracy theorists and nutcases. They are always looking for the hyperinflation that never comes. Gold bugs pay a premium over the metal price for gold and silver coins on the notion that they will need the currency, come the Apocalypse.
On the other hand, the relationship between gold and financial crises goes back centuries. In the aftermath of the credit-bubble bust, we confront a Moby Dick-size pile of leverage and the question of whether this is inflationary or deflationary. So its worth considering what the price of gold may be telling us.
Leverage is a broad term that covers the complete history of finance, which all boils down essentially to the same structure: debt secured by assets. You give me a cow, I give you a piece of paper. Later innovations are simply variations of obligations secured by assets.
So a simple explanation of bubbles is that they form whenever someone creates a rationale to increase obligations too far beyond the level justified by the assets, regardless of the form of the asset or obligation.
Dutch Tulips
Consider tulip mania, which like all bubbles featured leverage; it was fueled not just by ordinary debt, but by leveraged tulip options. When the end came, the government of Holland declined to bail out those who had mortgaged their houses and businesses to buy tulip bulbs, and the multiyear depression that followed ruined an otherwise sound economy.
Our recent real-estate bubble wasnt like tulip mania, in which the inflated asset had only a tenuous connection to the economy it came to dominate. The real-estate bubble swelled on the genuine beliefs among consumers about their future prospects and earnings. To be sure, some of those prospects and earnings were exaggerated to the point of fraud.
Thus the bubble burst when credit-card junkies had spent the last dollars they could justify, and the final peanut brain had been unearthed who could be persuaded to sign up for a negative-amortizing mortgage.
Because this link, however slim, remained between peoples prospects and earnings and the debt they could carry, real- estate prices even in hard-hit cities such as Las Vegas declined only by half. Stock-market losses were similar. These numbers are reported as if they were staggering, but they are less so compared with many bubbles.
Free Lunches
Some now blame consumers disinclination to spend and get the economy going again on banks newfound reluctance to lend. To the contrary, we are in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like cash for clunkers. Consumers are done with borrowing. They will keep fueling the deflation by going through their attics and garages to find stuff they can sell on EBay to raise cash.
Thats because consumers have figured out that it was all a big head-fake from the Federal Reserve. Real incomes havent grown in years. Manufacturing and, increasingly, service jobs are still moving overseas. The Treasury is trying to pump the economy back to a high-water mark that was phony to begin with, and doing so in the face of a savings rate that is going up.
Trade Gap
The Treasury will succeed in printing enough money to forestall severe deflation. Even so, dollars will keep flowing out of the U.S. to other countries as the trade gap widens. Only when we start creating more jobs and higher earnings can this dynamic reverse. The question is, when will that be?
Enter the gold bugs. They arent just betting on inflation, as is the conventional wisdom. Gold has a wicked history of being an unreliable inflation hedge. It has, though, at times been a haven against sudden currency depreciation.
In all the talk of inflation because the Treasury is printing so much money versus deflation because it may not print enough, there is one type of inflation that is rarely discussed. This is the mega-inflation caused by a sudden currency devaluation. Currency is like any financial innovation, an obligation secured by assets. When the obligation is perceived to have increased far beyond the level justifiable by the assets, which in this case make up a countrys economy, a bubble has formed.
As in any bubble, those who recognize this need to act well in advance. Historically, governments have taken action to prevent currency flight when the owners of a severely overvalued medium of exchange start selling so much that it adds to the pressure on its price. They make private purchases of gold illegal, or tax the exchange of currency.
Right now, the American economy is worth less than the value implied by the market value of its obligations. How much less, no one knows. But gold bugs will tell you, privately, that this is why they are buyers. Might as well stock up, they say, before gold becomes a controlled substance.
I havent, so far, but the temptation is rising by the day.
(Alice Schroeder, author of The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life and a senior adviser to Morgan Stanley, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Alice Schroeder at [email protected].
Summary Box: Jobs, manufacturing data disappoint
Summary Box: Jobs, manufacturing data show recovery off to bumpy start; modest rebound likely
By The Associated Press
On Thursday October 1, 2009, 5:39 pm EDT
Buzz up! 0 Print
CONSUMERS: Consumer spending surged 1.3 percent in August, due partly to the now-ended Cash for Clunkers program. But incomes posted a lackluster 0.2 percent gain, and the number of newly laid-off workers rose more than expected to 551,000 last week.
MANUFACTURING: The Institute for Supply Management's closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity stayed in recovery territory for a second month after 18 straight recessionary readings. But the 52.6 reading posted last month was lower than economists had expected and below August's 52.9.
WHAT'S NEXT?: Economists believe the recession ended in the July-September quarter, with activity pushed higher by a temporary rise in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity. But they worry that growth could falter in the months ahead unless incomes begin growing at a stronger pace.
The stock market has been soaring — the Dow's up more than 50 percent since March — yet the unemployment rate is still sky-high, hovering just below 10 percent. And lending to businesses, particularly small ones, remains iced up. Host Guy Raz tries to make sense of what seems to be conflicting economic news by talking with Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which specializes in economic forecasts. Achuthan says the economic indicators he watches show the economy in a relatively standard recovery phase. And he says measures like employment and lending always lag.
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Guy Raz.
We begin the hour with a simple question: If the economy is starting to crawl back from the brink, why are so few Americans feeling the benefits?
The stock market is up more than 50 percent just since March, and yet unemployment is expected to hit 10 percent at any moment, and things are far worse in places like California and Michigan, still very much in the grip of the economic crisis.
Joining us to help make sense of this weird financial landscape is Lakshman Achuthan. He's the head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute and one of the few analysts who warned about the coming economic crisis early last year.
Mr. Achuthan, welcome to the show.
Mr. LAKSHMAN ACHUTHAN (Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute): Well, thank you.
RAZ: Why is the stock market doing so well? Is it connected in any way to the economy?
Mr. ACHUTHAN: Let's be clear. It is not a measure of economic activity. However, it is closely connected to the economic cycle. And what I mean is it anticipates upswings and downswings in economic growth by a few months.
When we think about the economy as individuals, we think about, you know, how's my job doing, or how's my company doing, and that is very different from the stock market. The stock market is going to move literally a few months, maybe a quarter or two, before those kinds of things, before actual jobs start to move.
RAZ: So the market's like a bellwether, right?
Mr. ACHUTHAN: It is a bellwether, and it makes all kinds of mistakes, to be fair. It gives you these false alarms. So it's very important to see other leading indicators of the economy move alongside the rise in the stock market, and that's what's interesting about the last six months. We are seeing profits growth starting to improve. We are seeing essentially the business cycle has turned the corner. The recession has ended. It still feels bad to individuals and to businesses because we're near the bottom of the business cycle. However, the critical thing - and this is what the stock market is concerned about -we've changed direction.
You're actually seeing things like production. Factories are producing more. People are buying more. It's not even less bad anymore. What we're getting is actual expansion.
RAZ: Well, if on paper, the recession is over…
Mr. ACHUTHAN: Mm-hmm.
RAZ: …why is unemployment so high?
Mr. ACHUTHAN: Let's put this in perspective. It's because we had the worst recession since the 1930s. So, of course, unemployment's going to be up. But it's not even as bad as it might have been. In the last bad recession, it was in the early '80s - in 1981, '82 - we actually unemployment a full percentage point higher than we have now. And it's actually entirely normal for the jobless rate to rise into the early part of a recovery.
There's two basic reasons. One is simple population growth. Every month, the population is growing so fast that you have to produce 125,000 more jobs just to tread water. And the other reason is as the economy improves, people who have been sitting on the sidelines say, you know, now, it's worth it for me to go and hit the pavement and look for a job.
RAZ: One final question for you. There is a credit crisis now, particularly for small businesses in this country, small businesses that are struggling to stay afloat. They simply cannot borrow money from banks because banks are not lending it. Why is that happening?
Mr. ACHUTHAN: Well, you know, the banks have essentially had a near-death or actually a death experience, and they've been brought back to life. So they're completely shell-shocked. They are very scared to loan money, more than even is normal. And actually, this is normal.
Typically, loan growth does not start to revive until many quarters after the recovery has begun. But I think somewhere in the next, say, one to two to three quarters, you'll start to see the loan growth back out to business again.
RAZ: Lakshman Achuthan is the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. He spoke with us from New York.
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