โพสต์
ตั้งแต่เดือน may - aug (เดือนนี้) ให้ UW thailand
เช้าวันจันทร์มันปรับแล้ว >> EW
ไม่รู้เหมือนกัน...ราคาร่วงไปเยอะมั้ง
ในระยะเวลาไม่กี่เดือนมานี้เมื่อไหร่ index อยู่ สูง 1050 - 1100 มันจะ เชียร์ให้ย้ายการลงทุนตลอด
ชัดเจนล่าสุด index อยู่ ต่ำ 1050. มันเพิ่มน้ำหนัก
หวังผลกี่ % ครับนี่คือการออกข้อมูลสำหรับการลงทุนหรือเก็งกำไร.... (มันซื้อได้แต่หุ้นใหญ่ๆดังนั้น divergence จาก SET ไม่มากแน่นอน)
----------
Morgan Stanley Upgrade Thailand and Peru to EW;Downgrade Czech to UW
วันจันทร์ที่ 29 สิงหาคม 2554 เวลา 12:50:50 น.
It was a tough month for the country quant model which lost 42 bps of performance. However, our latest data run suggests maintaining the current major OWs and UWs.In particular, we prefer China to India, Brazil to Mexico and Korea to Taiwan.The current market sell-off has been focused on the higher beta markets in the asset class. Moreover,markets with a higher domestic demand weight in the index have systematically outperformed. These two developments have caused a substantial undershoot in valuations for some of the more globally facing and cyclical markets. This has left the dispersion of country valuations at a very high level to history. Amongst our OW rated markets we would highlight that Korea is currently trading on a forward P/E of just 7.9x. This is 1% below the trough level of the 2008/09 crisis. China is also trading within 10% of its 2008/09 trough on this metric. Meanwhile, Brazil stands out on an historical P/B multiple of just 1.35x which is 8% below its trough multiple on the 2008/09 recession period.We upgrade Thailand and Peru from UW to EW this month. Thailand’s overall ranking improved to #13 from #19 while Peru’s rank rose to #9 from #14. Thailand’s scores have improved for Earnings Revisions breadth (#3 from #11), Earnings Growth (#2 from #10) and Business cycle (#15 from #19). Meanwhile, Peru’s have improved for Earnings Revisions (#10 from #20), Earnings Growth (#1 from #8) and Currency scores(#11from #18). We downgrade Czech Republic from EW to UW mainly due to significant deterioration in its Earnings Revisions breadth scores (#7 from #19). Its overall Rank fell to #18 from #12.We also review recent MS commodity team and stock analyst commentary on energy and metals markets. In general this is supportive of our call to maintain OW exposure on Brazil and Russia and Energy & Materials at this juncture.
Source:Morgan Stanley Research
----------------------------------------------
ตามรอยกลับไปวันที่ 19
Morgan Stanley Cuts Southeast Asia Stock Targets
Friday August 19, 2011, 10:28 am EDT
Southeast Asian stocks were among the best performers in Asia last year, with markets in Indonesia and Thailand rising around 40 percent. Morgan Stanley had previously forecast gains of 13 percent, 3 percent and 22 percent for the MSCI indexes of Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore respectively.
But in a new report, Morgan Stanley says stocks in Indonesia and Thailand are likely to rise only 1 and 2 percent respectively from current levels, while stocks in Singapore could actually fall by 5 percent.
The reason: the bank has cut its GDP growth forecast for all three economies as well as earnings per share.
The bank isn't, however, predicting a major selloff or meltdown for the region's stock markets because it points out the region is now less reliant on exports to Europe and the U.S.
According to the report, the U.S. and EU accounted for 20.1 percent, 22 percent and 16.6 percent of total exports to Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, respectively in the first quarter of this year, compared with 28 percent, 37 percent and 31.9 percent in 2000.
Within the region, the bank points out that Singapore remains the most exposed to a slowdown in the West.
"Singapore's domestic demand is closely linked to external demand; hence, its domestic demand has been quite volatile," the bank's analysts wrote.
On the other hand, Indonesia's domestic demand was likely to be the most resilient, according to the report.
--------------------
30/05
Morgan Stanley said it was underweight on Thai stocks as they were fully valued, adding that it expected rising political risk and possibly even violence after the July 3 election, which could pull the economy down.
บันทึกไม่สำเร็จ