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Deep 2009 recession in developed nations if stimuli fail

New York - United Nations economists warned Monday that the world economy will enter a deep recession if numerous stimulus packages being worked out by individual countries fail to improve the credit crunch and restore consumer confidence in the coming months.

Analysis in the World Economic Situation and Prospects in 2009 calls for coordinated, massive and swift economic stimulus to counteract the global downturn. It projects a decline next year of per capita income and falling export growth and capital inflows, and higher borrowing costs for developing countries as economic woes spread from the rich economies.

It says the US dollar is set to resume its decline, with the possibility of a hard landing in 2009.

"If the present credit squeeze prolongs and confidence in the financial sector is not restored in coming months, the developed countries could enter into a deep recession in 2009," the analysis warns.

"This would bring economic growth in developing countries down to 2.7 per cent, dangerously low for their ability to sustain poverty reduction efforts and social and political stability," the UN said.

The analysis is published to coincide with the International Financing and Development Conference through Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, where the United Nations is participating to demand deep reforms of the global financial system to prevent future financial crises.

It projects a baseline scenario of world output in 2009 to reach a meagre1 per cent increase, compared to 2.5-per-cent growth in 2008 and 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent in the preceding years.

A more optimistic scenario says that world output could reach higher than the baseline projection if governments would factor in1.2 to 2 per cent of gross domestic product into the stimulus efforts and declare further benchmark interest-rate cuts in 2009.

UN economists say that government responses to the crisis since October have taken on a more comprehensive and less piecemeal approach, which has led to increased international cooperation and coordination to repair the global economy.

They say about 4 trillion dollars worldwide has been injected into efforts to unfreeze the credit and money markets. They said interest-rate cuts have been implemented in both rich and poor countries.

"But with consumer and business confidence seriously depressed and banks reluctant to lend, further lowering of interest rates by central banks will do little to stimulate credit supplies and private spending," they say.

The analysis says that China has already launched a package of fiscal stimulus of 580 billion dollars, or 15 per cent of its GDP, to be implemented within two years. In the United States, the stimulus so far amounts to 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2008.

"At present, however, there is no credible, institutionalized mechanism for international coordination of stimulus packages or monetary policies," the report says. "Such a mechanism will need to be created alongside other fundamental reforms."//DPA

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