งานเข้าไม๊เนี่ย : เศรษฐกิจ US Q2 โต 1%

[multipleceilings]

ถ้าไม่เข้า เดี๋ยวมันก็มีคนทำให้เป็นเรื่องจนได้.. แน่นอน

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The U.S. economy grew less than previously estimated in the second quarter, capping the weakest six months of the recovery that began in mid 2009.

Gross domestic product climbed at a 1 percent annual rate from April through June, down from a 1.3 percent prior estimate, revised Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.1 percent increase. The reduction reflected a smaller increase in inventories and fewer exports.

Slowing job growth and plunging confidence exacerbated by political gridlock and financial-market turmoil this month threaten to weigh on consumer and business spending for the rest of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking today at a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, may hint at what tools policy makers can still use to spur growth.

“Consumers don’t look like they’re in much of a mood to buy,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics in New York. “The economy continues weaker than we thought. It looks like it’s losing momentum and trade reflects the weaker economic circumstances abroad.”

Stock-index futures extended earlier losses after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing next month fell 0.6 percent to 1,150.4 at 8:46 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose, sending the yield on the benchmark 10- year note down to 2.19 percent from 2.23 percent late yesterday.

Survey Results

Forecasts of 81 economists in the GDP survey ranged from 0.3 percent to 1.6 percent. At $13.26 trillion in the second quarter, GDP has yet to surpass the pre-recession peak. The world’s largest economy grew at a 0.4 percent rate in the first three months of the year.

The report also contained some positive news as corporate profits grew and wages and salaries were revised up at the start of the year to show the biggest gain in more than four years.

Consumer spending, about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 0.4 percent annual rate, the smallest gain in more than a year. Nonetheless, the reading was revised up from the 0.1 percent previously estimated, reflecting more outlays on financial services, insurance and health care.

Today’s report follows recent cuts in forecasts by economists as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 18 percent between April 29 and Aug. 8, following S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt amid wrangling over deficit-cutting measures and on rising concerns of a euro zone default.

Cutting Forecasts

IHS Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts-based research firm, this week raised the odds of a recession in the U.S. to around 40 percent from a prior 20 percent to 25 percent probability. It cut its growth forecast for 2011 to 1.6 percent from a prior 2.5 percent, adding that a “double-dip downturn is still not the most likely scenario.”

“It appears that the U.S. economy is losing further momentum,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said Aug. 19. While several indicators for July were “surprisingly strong,” economist Zach Pandl wrote that “timelier survey-based data have turned down sharply, and weakness in the hard statistics seems likely to follow.”

Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecast to 1 percent in the third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, both from prior 2 percent estimates. Goldman Sachs on Aug. 5 said it saw a one-in- three chance of a renewed recession in the U.S.

Higher expenses for necessities like food and energy may have curtailed spending on less essential items in the second quarter. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed in May to about $4 a gallon, the highest in almost three years, according to AAA, the nation’s biggest auto group.

August Payrolls

Lack of jobs is discouraging shoppers. Payrolls grew by about 95,000 in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed so far by Bloomberg before the Sept. 2 jobs report. That would compare with 117,000 in July which brought the average gain over the past three months to 111,000. Employment gains averaged 204,000 in the first four months of the year.

Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, said profit in its fiscal 2011 will be less than it previously projected as sales drop at stores open more than a year. The company also announced it would close seven “under- performing” stores.

“Recent headlines regarding slowing growth and the U.S. credit rating downgrade underscore the continued weakness in the U.S. economy,” Robert A. Niblock, chairman and president, said on an Aug. 15 conference call. “The volume of negative news and the unsettling impact on equity markets is having a significant effect on an already fragile consumer mindset.”

Boost in Salaries

Wages and salaries climbed by $101.2 billion from January through March, the biggest increase since the last three months of 2006 and up from a prior estimate of $82.8 billion. Real disposable income, or after-tax earnings adjusted for inflation, climbed 1.2 percent in the first quarter, rather than the 0.7 percent gain previously estimated. They rose 1 percent in the April-to-June period, also up from the 0.7 percent prior calculation.

Today’s report offered a first look at profits. Earnings climbed 3 percent from the prior quarter, after rising 1 percent in the prior period. They climbed 8.3 percent from the same time last year.

Inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage point from growth last quarter, instead of adding 0.2 point, reflecting a smaller increase than previously estimated. Fewer exports also meant trade added 0.1 point to GDP rather than 0.6 percentage point.

The reductions were partly offset by the bigger increase in consumer spending and more business investment. Excluding trade and inventories, GDP grew at a 1.1 percent annual rate, up from the 0.5 percent prior estimate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at [email protected]

[Jeng]

แล้ว Q2 เมืองไทย โตกี่เปอร์เซ็นต์ครับ

[multipleceilings]

^^^ นี่เลยครับ http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/ ... 0520110822

ทำให้ไทยโดน downgrade เพราะ analysts คาด q2 ของไทยจะโต +0.5% QoQ และ +3.6% YoY

แต่ของจริง -0.2% QoQ และ +2.6% YoY

จำไม่ได้ว่า MS หรือ CS ที่ออกมา downgrade ก็เพราะเหตุนี้ เขียนระบุไว้

ผมว่าสิ่งที่พี่ ben กำลังจะพูดสำคัญมาก ทั้งโลกพื้นฐานบริษัทไม่สนแล้วครับ สนแต่ความน่าจะเป็นของเศรษฐกิจโลกแล้วเหมารวม

มันทำให้เห็นว่าคนส่วนใหญ่ขึ้เกียจคิดจึงคอยตามอย่างเดียวเค้าว่าอะไรมาก็ตามนั้น ขายกันก็ขายตาม เพราะไม่รู้ดีกว่า เพราะไม่อยากคิด เพราะไม่เคย doubt + กับการที่กลุ่มเงินทุนใหญ่ๆจ้องจะหาผลประโยชน์อยู่แล้ว information manipulation ทำง่ายมาก สันดานมนุษย์ทั้งสองอย่างนี้เมื่อมาเจอกันทำให้โลกล่มจม

[multipleceilings]

อ่านนี้ด้วยครับ เค้าแนบ context ไว้

CONTEXT:
- Economists had predicted Southeast Asia's second-largest
economy would grow at a slower pace of 0.5 percent in the second
quarter of this year from the previous three months, reflecting
the imapct from Japan's earthquake in March, which caused supply
chain disruptions.

- Exports are equivalent to more than 60 percent of GDP each
year. Japan generally takes about one-tenth of total Thai
shipments and it is Thailand's biggest source of imports,
accounting for one-fifth of the total.

- Economists had forecast annual growth of 3.6 percent for
the second quarter.

- Japanese's eartquake in March caused global supply chain
disruptions. But the impact has now faded and Thailand's
Japanese-dominated auto industry has largely returned to normal.
Thai manufacturing output has picked up since May month-on-month
after a 16.6 percent drop in April.

- The economy in the second half is expected to get a boost
from the populist policies of the new government, which is
moving to boost growth and increase the income of farmers and
workers.

- The Bank of Thailand last month forecast the economy
would grow 4.1 percent this year and raised its export growth
forecast to 22.4 percent from 20.4 percent.

- The central bank is one of Asia's most hawkish. It has
raised its benchmark interest rate eight times to 3.25 percent
since July 2010, when it started to push up the rate from a
record low of 1.25 percent.

- Economists expect another quarter-point rise at the next
meeting on Aug. 24. Some economists expect a pause after the
August meeting while others see the rate rising further. << (อันนี้ขึ้นแล้ว)

[chootana]

after shock ครับ หวังว่าตลาดหุ้นคงรับข่าวนี้ไปหมดแล้วเน้อ
เมืองไทยโต 3 กว่าๆนะ ถ้าจำไม่ผิดนะครับพี่เจ็ง (ขี้เกียจหาข้อมูล ใช้จำเอา)

[multipleceilings]

พี่ bloom มาแล้วครับ พาด headline แล้ว

U.S. Stocks Fall on Slower Economic Growth

By Rita Nazareth - Aug 26, 2011 8:34 PM GMT+0700

[multipleceilings]

after shock ครับ หวังว่าตลาดหุ้นคงรับข่าวนี้ไปหมดแล้วเน้อ
เมืองไทยโต 3 กว่าๆนะ ถ้าจำไม่ผิดนะครับพี่เจ็ง (ขี้เกียจหาข้อมูล ใช้จำเอา)

-0.2% QoQ และ +2.6% YoY ครับ

[Pat T Buffett]

U.K. economic growth slowed in the second quarter as manufacturing shrank and services showed signs of losing momentum, adding pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron to ease the squeeze on consumers.
Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent from the first quarter, the same as estimated a month ago, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Output rose 0.7 percent from a year earlier. A separate report showed services fell 0.1 percent in June, the final month of the quarter.
The economy has barely expanded since September as government budget cuts and accelerating inflation sap consumer confidence. Cameron is under mounting pressure to find ways to spur growth as the euro-region debt crisis and global market turmoil threaten the biggest markets for British goods.

ขอเอาgdp uk มาแปะระหว่างรอเฮียเบนแถลงนะครับ

[harikung]

วันจันทร์จะกี่ริกเตอร์น้อ จะลงเพราะอเมกาโตต่ำกว่าคาดนี่แหล่ะ ส่วนQEผมว่าตลาดรับข่าวไปแล้วนะครับ

ปล.ล่าสุดพี่เบอร์บอกว่ายังมีTOOLSให้ใช้อีกเยอะ และจะทำทุกทางเพื่อให้เศรษฐกิจgrowth