US อาจจะแข็งขึ้นอีกในระยะสั้น (DXY นะครับ)

[วรันศ์ บัฟเฟต]

Foreign earnings tax holiday likely to boost dollar: Citi

October 7, 2011, 12:48 PM

A temporary tax break allowing U.S. corporations to repatriate profits earned abroad at a lower tax rate is likely to give the U.S. dollar DXY a temporary boost while pressuring the euro the most since the vast majority of reinvested earnings are in the euro zone, said Citigroup Strategist Steven Englander, in a report Friday.

Unrepatriated earnings are estimated to total somewhere between $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion with 60% to 65% likely to be sent back to the U.S. if the tax holiday is introduced, according to Englander, head of G-10 strategy at Citigroup. This could results in some $800 billion to $1 trillion in funds returning “home,” he wrote.

The movement in funds would give the U.S. dollar a temporary boost while pressuring the euro since the euro zone accounts for nearly 50% of reinvested earnings, Englander said.

In 2010 alone, U.S. multinationals reinvested roughly $100 billion in the euro zone, followed by Canada and Switzerland at about $20 billion each and the U.K. coming in at little under $20 billion.

“We think the euro and the British pound would be most affected by a renewed earnings repatriation program. They are both slow growing economic zones, with even poorer prospects and little reason for funds to be reinvested there. In addition, they are likely to have a bigger proportion of non-tech, non-resource firms that are likely to keep balance sheets in local currency rather than in U.S. dollar,” wrote Englander.