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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-2 ... slump.html
U.S. Existing Homes Sold Since ’07 Revised Down by 14%
The number of existing homes sold in the U.S. was revised down by an average 14 percent since 2007, magnifying the depth of the slump that contributed to the last recession.
Purchases were revised to 4.19 million for 2010, down 15 percent from a prior estimate of 4.91 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Sales climbed 4 percent in November to a 4.42 million annual pace, from a revised 4.25 million rate the prior month that reflected the benchmark updates.
“Since 2007, things began to diverge” with other housing data, Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a news conference today as the figures were released. “Nothing in the local markets changed, it was an aggregation problem.”
Purchases were trimmed by 11 percent for 2007, by 16 percent in 2008 and by 16 percent in 2009.
“Even before the revisions things were bad, now they are even worse,” Yun said.
There were comparable downward revisions to inventory, and median prices were little changed from prior estimates, the report showed.
Housing, which helped trigger the 18-month recession that began in December 2007 when subprime borrowers defaulted, is showing signs of stabilizing as builder confidence improves and construction picks up. Still, another wave of foreclosures is likely to push prices down further as more marked-down properties come on the market.
‘How Weak’
The revisions show “how weak housing activity has been,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The big take-away is that there was an even bigger gap between affordability and housing demand, making it even more difficult to trigger the rebound in housing.”
The median estimate of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5.05 million sales pace in November. Forecasts ranged from 4.38 million to 5.25 million, a wider-than-usual range because some economists took into account assumptions for the benchmark revisions and others didn’t.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,238.38 at 10:35 a.m. in New York, while the yield on the 10- year Treasury note rose to 1.94 percent from 1.92 percent late yesterday.
Slower Pace
Figures from other trackers of home sales showed a slower pace of purchases compared with NAR, prompting the agents’ group to revisit their data. CoreLogic Inc., a real-estate analytics company, released a report in February showing that 3.3 million existing homes were sold in 2010, less than the 4.91 million initially tallied by NAR.
CoreLogic, based in Santa Ana, California, monitors sales figures through property records at local courthouses, while NAR follows sales through the multiple-listing services used by real-estate agents.
NAR tallies in recent years were overstated because the consolidation of listing services caused distortions in the data, according to Yun. He said overestimates of direct sales by owners and home builders’ use of the MLS to sell new homes also contributed to the distortions.
Existing-home sales, tabulated when a contract closes, rose 11 percent from the same month last year before adjusting for seasonal variations. Annual sales peaked at 7.07 million in 2005 during the housing boom.
Previously Owned
The number of previously owned homes on the market dropped to 2.58 million for November, today’s report showed.
At the current sales pace, it would take 7 months to sell those houses, down from 7.7 months at the end of October. A range of seven months to eight months supply is normally consistent with stable home prices, Yun said, adding that he thought property values will probably climb in “single digits” next year.
Purchases climbed in all four regions last month, led by a 9.8 percent gain in the Northeast.
Sales of existing single-family homes increased 4.5 percent to an annual rate of 3.95 million. Purchases of multifamily properties, including condominiums and townhouses, were little changed at a 470,000 pace.
The median price of a previously owned home decreased 3.5 percent to $164,200 from $170,200 in November 2010, today’s report showed.
Obama Administration
The Obama administration this month started a new version of the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, after the original plan helped less than a quarter of the people targeted to lock in lower mortgage rates.
Federal Reserve policy makers reiterated at a meeting this month that they will keep the benchmark interest rate near zero until at least mid-2013. The central bank in September decided to reinvest maturing housing debt into new mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries.
Some homebuilders said they see signs of optimism in the housing market.
“November is a time that historically sales slow down,” Larry Sorsby, chief financial officer at builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV), said on a Dec. 15 call with analysts. “And this year we’ve not seen as dramatic a slowdown as we have in recent prior years. The market feels a little bit better than we would have expected.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at [email protected]
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