Fed tapering could begin later this year

[syj]

June 19, 2013, 5:30 p.m. EDT
Fed tapering could begin later this year
Talk of bond-purchase tapering slams financial markets

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the central bank may start to scale back its asset purchases later this year if the economy continues to strengthen, as the central bank expects.

The Fed, which kept monetary policy on hold after a two-day meeting, signaled greater optimism about the economy, forecasting that the unemployment rate could fall to 6.5% by 2014, one year sooner than the central bank had previously estimated. Read MarketWatch’s blog of the Fed announcement and Bernanke news conference.

The Fed’s newly revised forecast and Bernanke’s comments slammed U.S. financial markets. Stocks on Wall Street ended sharply lower and the 10-year Treasury yield 10_YEAR +0.55% surged to 2.33%, its highest level since March 2012.

The central bank’s $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program has helped prop up stock prices and keep U.S. interest rates ultralow.

Reuters Enlarge Image
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to reporters Wednesday

Bernanke, speaking in a news conference after the Fed meeting, tried to decouple a tapering of its asset purchases from any hike in short-term interest rates.

“The current level of the federal funds rate target is likely to remain appropriate for a considerable period after asset purchases are concluded,” Bernanke said.

The Fed has said it would keep rates close to zero so long as the jobless rate, now at 7.6%, was above its 6.5% threshold.

And the Fed chairman stressed the bank won't start to hike rates even once its economic targets are met. He said the bank has to be convinced the economic recovery is on a solid upward path before it starts to pull back.

“Our policy is in no way predetermined,” Bernanke said. “Our policies are tied to what’s going on in the economy.”

Indeed, 14 of the 15 Fed members don’t expect the first rate hike until 2015, according to the bank statement.

“The Fed is in no hurry to remove monetary accommodation, but as the downside risk to the U.S. economy and labor market diminish, the rationale for maintaining emergency quantitative-easing measures becomes harder to justify,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist of Bank of the West.

Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, said he now thinks the Fed will reduce the pace of asset purchases to $70 billion-per-month at its meeting in mid-September. The purchases would end by march, he added.
Upbeat outlook

The Fed released its regular policy statement shortly before Bernanke’s news conference and the bank’s outlook showed subtle but important changes. The Fed said downside risks to the outlook have “diminished since the fall” and that the labor market had shown further improvement.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-mu ... 2013-06-19

[syj]

การลด ละ เลิก QE ก็หมายถึง การเพิ่มดอกเบี้ย นะครับ

เพราะที่่ผ่านมาการใช้ QE คือการเพิ่มอัตราเงินเฟ้อ เพื่อ
ลดดอกเบี้ยที่เป็น 0% อยู่แล้ว ลงไปอีก ... (เพราะต่ำกว่า
0% แล้วมันลดไม่ได้ ต้องใช้ QE แทน)

แค่ประกาศ หรือก่อนประกาศ นี่ อัตราดอกเบี้ย ของสหรัฐฯ
ก็ปรับตัวขึ้นแล้ว ตอนประกาศ ขึ้นอีก 0.55%

The Fed’s newly revised forecast and Bernanke’s comments slammed U.S. financial markets. Stocks on Wall Street ended sharply lower and the 10-year Treasury yield 10_YEAR +0.55% surged to 2.33%, its highest level since March 2012.

เมื่อดอกเบี้ยขึ้น "Price" (of Assets) ก็ลงครับ ...

[WaayVI]

จากประสบการณ์หลายๆท่าน อยากจะรบกวนช่วยชี้แนะครับว่า แล้วดอกเบี้ยในประเทศน่าจะเป็นอย่างไรครับ อาจจะต้องขึ้นตามไหม หรือไม่น่าจะเกี่ยวกัน

[syj]

June 20, 2013, 7:15 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks extend tumble on Fed taper fears
Asian and European stocks sink, along with gold and Treasurys

By Polya Lesova and Victor Reklaitis, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst session since November 2011, hit by fear that the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond buying later this year.

Asian and European stocks, along with gold, oil and Treasurys, also posted steep declines. Disappointing Chinese data further hit sentiment.

After dropping as much as 380 points intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -2.34% ended down 353.87 points, or 2.3%, to 14,758.32, with all of its 30 components in negative territory.

It was the Dow’s largest one-day percentage decline since Nov. 7, 2012, the day after the U.S. presidential election. And it was the index’s biggest one-day point decline since Nov. 9, 2011.

Walt Disney Co. DIS -3.65% and Intel Corp. INTC -3.26% led the Dow lower, dropping 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.

The S&P 500 index SPX -2.50% dropped 40.74 points, or 2.5%, to 1,588.19, marking its biggest decline since Nov. 9, 2011.

All 10 of the index’s major industry groups ended lower, with consumer staples and utilities posting the biggest declines.

Volume was brisk. More than 4.8 billion shares of New York Stock Exchange-listed shares traded hands, the second-largest volume day of the year.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP -2.28% lost 78.57 points, or 2.3%, to 3,364.63.
HOW TO INVEST AS INTEREST RATES RISE
'Biggest fear is a return to economic decline with loss of faith in the Fed.'
— @TFMkts during @MarketWatch #FedInvest Twitter chat

The CBOE Market Volatility Index VIX +23.14% surged 23% to 20.49, its highest close since December.

Gold futures GCQ3 -1.03% dropped $87.80 an ounce to close at $1,286.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking their lowest finish since September 2010.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the central bank may begin to scale back its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year if the economy continues to show strength.

The Fed’s stance led to sharp losses for U.S. stocks on Wednesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield 10_YEAR +0.46% soared.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sto ... 2013-06-20