Great interview, good idea for stocks !!!

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มาลองฟังการสัมภาษณ์ John Calamos ซึ่ง Jeff Miller บอกว่าเป็นgreat interview .....

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000177742&play=1

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welcome back. stocks had a slightly calmer day after a very wild last two sessions, which saw the dow fall a combined 560 points in the last two days. our next guest, ough, manages nearly $30 billion and says all of that was an overreaction to the fed and the talk of tapering. joining me now to explain why is cnbc exclusive, john calamos, ceo and global coach, chief investment officer at calamos investments. john, always wonderful to have you on the program. good to be with you. tell me why you think the market overreacted. well, i think we're actually still quite optimistic going forward here. we're surely going to be in a correction, but quite frankly, i think what the fed has done here, hopefully it takes the control of the economy from the fed to the free markets. and i'm sort of in the camp here where a rise in the 10-year rate here is not -- is not so much a negative. it very well could be a positive. i think the financial sector will provide more loans out there, and, of course, more loans in the financial sector will help small business. and helping small business creates jobs. so i'm a bit more optimistic out here. even though we're going to have a sloppy market, a sideways market for a while in here. so sloppy market. do you look at that sloppy market and say, okay, i want to put money to work here, because longer term, i think this market's going to higher? and if so, where? yeah. i think that's exactly what we -- i think we're going to go through a sideways market. and what we may very well happen in here, we'll see a rotation out of some of the more what i would call income-oriented stocks, almost bond surrogates, into more growthy areas like technology and other areas like that. so what we'll find here is we'll -- the market may be sloppy coming in here, but we'll see that sector rotation occur in here, and then looking further out, you know, those will be the places to be. that's where we're going to get performance looking further out. all right. let's talk about the allocation and the shift in terms of sectors here. dividend payers have been working for folks as this market has gone up. do you want to avoid dividends at this point, or do you still hold onto the dividend payers? where is sort of the rotation going to take place in your view? yeah, i think -- i don't think you avoid them completely. you know, we like dividend -- especially stocks that are not only paying dividend, but those dividends are growing. so we think that's one part of the market that will continue to do well. just a pure dividend place, that got overpriced in this market and what was underpriced was really technology stocks and growth stocks like that were underpriced. so i think we'll see a bit of rotation there. all right. so in terms of sectors, what do you like right now? what are you exposed to? again, we continue to like technology in here, the growth sectors. financials should do well. i think the steepening yield curve really will promote loan growth. we now have -- banks may have an incentive to actually loan money. so the steepening curve is not bad news. so fngtss should -- financials should do well in here. so those are a couple of sectors. we still like materials and energy, as well. so over the near term, when would you expect the fed to begin the pullback? i mean, you've got a target for employment. is that an accurate measure looking at 6.5% unemployment? there's a target for inflation. when is your best guess in terms of when the fed begins the tapering down? i mean, a lot of people now betting it's september given the fact that the fed said it's going to be later on this year, and that is a two-day meeting in september. yeah, well, you know, par of -- part of the issue here is really inflation is not kicking up very much in here. so trying to time exactly when that happens is going to be very, very difficult. but i think at this point it's sooner rather than later. it really takes you out of the bond market, especially long-duration bonds. that's not someplace you want to be. and i think we're going through this period where you have to remember what history tells us, when the 10-year bonds were at 4% or 5%, p/es were 20%. so, you know, those are growth areas. and so, a steepening yield curve here is not bad news. i think it's positive. and the more the markets take over the economy and the choices and less the fed does it, i think the better off the economy's going to be. well, i mean, the bond market getting hammered. what's your view on that? the $38 billion that we saw coming out of bond portfolios, bond mutual funds, and bond etfs in the month of june. was that an overreaction, or was that appropriate? yeah, my reaction, it's about time. yeah, exactly. how long can we go -- it's about time. that's what i wanted to know, yeah. yeah. we've kept our duration and our fixed income very, very low. maybe it looked too low last year. it looks pretty good right now. so it's really hard to time. but it's about time. you know, we need a normal yield curve. we need normalcy in this. and guess what? the fed never has done a great job of trying to control the economy. yeah. and the more we can give more of the free markets the choices within there, i think the better off the economy's going to be and the markets will reflect that, as well. well, in terms of the continuation, i mean, do you think that money continues coming out of bonds? what's your take in terms of that great rotation? will we see some of the money coming out of the bond market moving into stocks? i think that you will. i think, you know -- you know, the reason people are in bonds is for safety. and with this, with the rates where they're at, that's not a safe place to be. so, you know, i feel maybe short-duration bonds, if you're really afraid of, you know, as the surrogate to cash. but we would be overweighting equities right now rather than being in bonds. i think bonds, there's only one place to go, hopefully, here, because as the economy improves, you know, yields -- rates have to go up. rates have to go up, but are there groups that are going to benefit from rates going up in the equities market? or, as rates go up, does that scare off equity investors? well, i think -- i think initially we'll go through the sideways market where investors will be scared. but, as i said, when the 10-year bond, looking back over many cycles, if you go back even 50, 60 years, when the 10-year bond was 4% to 6%, p/es were 20, which means it's a much more growth environment. so i think we have to, you know, re-educate investors that, you know, going back to normal rates is not a bad thing. you know, there's no incentive for banks to loan money for mortgages or for whatever with the flat yield curve. once the yield curve steepens, you'll see that happen. loan growth will go up. there'll be an incentive in there. and that will help -- that will help the economy grow, and hopefully, job growth. any other areas that you would avoid right here, john, in addition to the bond market? you know, avoiding, you know, the -- you know, some of the utility areas that have really been driving the markets in here, they seem overpriced. they really have become bond surrogates in here. so as rates go up, i think the stock market may do well, but you see utility sectors and some maybe of the consumer staples in here are not going to do very well in that environment, even though the equity markets do better. all right. we'll leave it there. john, always a pleasure. thank you very much for joining us. thank you, maria. we'll see you soon. john calamos.