10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor by Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com) (Contact Author | Biography)
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While it may be true that in the stock market there is no rule without an exception, there are some principles that are tough to dispute. Let's review 10 general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view. Every point embodies some fundamental concept every investor should know.
1. Sell the losers and let the winners ride!
Time and time again, investors take profits by selling their appreciated investments, but they hold onto stocks that have declined in the hope of a rebound. If an investor doesn't know when it's time to let go of hopeless stocks, he or she can, in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless. Of course, the idea of holding onto high-quality investments while selling the poor ones is great in theory, but hard to put into practice. The following information might help:
Riding a Winner - Peter Lynch was famous for talking about "tenbaggers", or investments that increased tenfold in value. The theory is that much of his overall success was due to a small number of stocks in his portfolio that returned big. If you have a personal policy to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple - say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the history of investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever had a tenbagger. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to some rigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of your investments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting. (For more insight, see Pick Stocks Like Peter Lynch.)
Selling a Loser - There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after a protracted decline. While it's important not to underestimate good stocks, it's equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizing your losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well as you expected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.
In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. In each situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Just remember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses. (For related reading, check out To Sell Or Not To Sell.)
2. Don't chase a "hot tip".
Whether the tip comes from your brother, your cousin, your neighbor or even your broker, you shouldn't accept it as law. When you make an investment, it's important you know the reasons for doing so; do your own research and analysis of any company before you even consider investing your hard-earned money. Relying on a tidbit of information from someone else is not only an attempt at taking the easy way out, it's also a type of gambling. Sure, with some luck, tips sometimes pan out. But they will never make you an informed investor, which is what you need to be to be successful in the long run. (Find what you should pay attention to - and what you should ignore in Listen To The Markets, Not Its Pundits.)
3. Don't sweat the small stuff.
As a long-term investor, you shouldn't panic when your investments experience short-term movements. When tracking the activities of your investments, you should look at the big picture. Remember to be confident in the quality of your investments rather than nervous about the inevitable volatility of the short term. Also, don't overemphasize the few cents difference you might save from using a limit versus market order.
Granted, active traders will use these day-to-day and even minute-to-minute fluctuations as a way to make gains. But the gains of a long-term investor come from a completely different market movement - the one that occurs over many years - so keep your focus on developing your overall investment philosophy by educating yourself. (Learn the difference between passive investing and apathy in Ostrich Approach To Investing A Bird-Brained Idea.)
4. Don't overemphasize the P/E ratio.
Investors often place too much importance on the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Because it is one key tool among many, using only this ratio to make buy or sell decisions is dangerous and ill-advised. The P/E ratio must be interpreted within a context, and it should be used in conjunction with other analytical processes. So, a low P/E ratio doesn't necessarily mean a security is undervalued, nor does a high P/E ratio necessarily mean a company is overvalued. (For further reading, see our tutorial Understanding the P/E Ratio.)
5. Resist the lure of penny stocks.
A common misconception is that there is less to lose in buying a low-priced stock. But whether you buy a $5 stock that plunges to $0 or a $75 stock that does the same, either way you've lost 100% of your initial investment. A lousy $5 company has just as much downside risk as a lousy $75 company. In fact, a penny stock is probably riskier than a company with a higher share price, which would have more regulations placed on it. (For further reading, see The Lowdown on Penny Stocks.)
6. Pick a strategy and stick with it.
Different people use different methods to pick stocks and fulfill investing goals. There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherently better than any other. However, once you find your style, stick with it. An investor who flounders between different stock-picking strategies will probably experience the worst, rather than the best, of each. Constantly switching strategies effectively makes you a market timer, and this is definitely territory most investors should avoid. Take Warren Buffett's actions during the dotcom boom of the late '90s as an example. Buffett's value-oriented strategy had worked for him for decades, and - despite criticism from the media - it prevented him from getting sucked into tech startups that had no earnings and eventually crashed. (Want to adopt the Oracle of Omaha's investing style? See Think Like Warren Buffett.)
7. Focus on the future.
The tough part about investing is that we are trying to make informed decisions based on things that have yet to happen. It's important to keep in mind that even though we use past data as an indication of things to come, it's what happens in the future that matters most.
A quote from Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street" (1990) about his experience with Subaru demonstrates this: "If I'd bothered to ask myself, 'How can this stock go any higher?' I would have never bought Subaru after it already went up twentyfold. But I checked the fundamentals, realized that Subaru was still cheap, bought the stock, and made sevenfold after that." The point is to base a decision on future potential rather than on what has already happened in the past. (For more insight, see The Value Investor's Handbook.)
8. Adopt a long-term perspective.
Large short-term profits can often entice those who are new to the market. But adopting a long-term horizon and dismissing the "get in, get out and make a killing" mentality is a must for any investor. This doesn't mean that it's impossible to make money by actively trading in the short term. But, as we already mentioned, investing and trading are very different ways of making gains from the market. Trading involves very different risks that buy-and-hold investors don't experience. As such, active trading requires certain specialized skills.
Neither investing style is necessarily better than the other - both have their pros and cons. But active trading can be wrong for someone without the appropriate time, financial resources, education and desire. (For further reading, see Defining Active Trading.)
9. Be open-minded.
Many great companies are household names, but many good investments are not household names. Thousands of smaller companies have the potential to turn into the large blue chips of tomorrow. In fact, historically, small-caps have had greater returns than large-caps; over the decades from 1926-2001, small-cap stocks in the U.S. returned an average of 12.27% while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) returned 10.53%.
This is not to suggest that you should devote your entire portfolio to small-cap stocks. Rather, understand that there are many great companies beyond those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and that by neglecting all these lesser-known companies, you could also be neglecting some of the biggest gains. (For more on investing in small caps, see Small Caps Boast Big Advantages.)
10. Be concerned about taxes, but don't worry.
Putting taxes above all else is a dangerous strategy, as it can often cause investors to make poor, misguided decisions. Yes, tax implications are important, but they are a secondary concern. The primary goals in investing are to grow and secure your money. You should always attempt to minimize the amount of tax you pay and maximize your after-tax return, but the situations are rare where you'll want to put tax considerations above all else when making an investment decision (see Basic Investment Objectives).
Conclusion
There are exceptions to every rule, but we hope that these solid tips for long-term investors and the common-sense principles we've discussed benefit you overall and provide some insight into how you should think about investing.
by Investopedia Staff (Contact Author | Biography)
Investopedia.com believes that individuals can excel at managing their financial affairs. As such, we strive to provide free educational content and tools to empower individual investors, including thousands of original and objective articles and tutorials on a wide variety of financial topics.
Filed Under: Investing Basics, Warren Buffett
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Long-Term Investing: Hot Or Not?
by Lisa Smith (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
The headlines blaze from magazine titles, book covers, newspapers and websites: "Beat the market!", "Here's the strategy you need!", "Get rich trading!" and "A five-star fund!" The talking heads on television fuel the fire even further, with some of them dancing around like crazed animals, frothing at the mouth and screaming for investors to "Buy!" It's enough to sway the convictions of even the most rational investors. Unfortunately, these seductive siren songs usually turn out to be all wrong. If you've ever struggled to keep up with market fluctuations in your investment strategy, read on to learn more about a simple investment strategy that will keep your returns on the rise.
The Truth
If these masterful investment strategies were as good as their advertisements, wouldn't there be a lot more rich people in your neighborhood? If the strategies can't lose, why do the mutual fund firms, wire houses and discount brokerages book huge profits while the average investor fares worse than an unmanaged index? The answer is simple: The financial services firms get paid even if you lose money.
The Numbers Don't Lie
According to Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (2006), a study by the financial research organization Dalbar, the average investor in an open-ended mutual fund earned a 3.9% total yearly return for the 20-year period ending December 31, 2005. The S&P 500 index earned an annual return of 11.9%. The index didn't just beat the investors, it crushed them! (To learn more, see You Can't Judge An Index Fund By Its Cover and Index Investing.)
Dalbar reports that the average mutual fund investor purchased a fund and held it for just 4.3 years before selling. That was during good times - the holding period slipped to just 2.5 years during bear markets. Neither time period suggests that the average mutual fund investor understands the objective of long-term investing or the risks involved in short-term trading in pursuit of performance. (For related reading, check out Ten Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor.)
The concept of selling the fund you have in order to purchase something different is encouraged by the idea that better returns can be had if only you choose "the right fund". In seeking this most desirable of all investments, most investors turn to historical performance as their guide. They see a fund with a "five star" rating or a particular sector of the economy (such as technology) delivering "hot" performance, and they trade in their current investments to purchase what they are sure must be "the next big thing". It's a classic mistake. (For more on this, see Digging Deeper: The Mutual Fund Prospectus.)
By the time the average investor is aware of a top-performing fund or industry sector, they are looking at last year's winner. The gains have happened already. The folks that made big money did it last year, last quarter or even last week. It doesn't take long before the investment is overpriced, overvalued and headed downhill. It's the perfect time to sell, but generally a foolish time to buy. Unfortunately, as the Dalbar numbers demonstrate, it's precisely the time far too many investors send their dollars in the wrong direction, buying an investment that is unlikely to repeat its past performance anytime soon.
Even when a few lucky investors do manage to grab on to the tail end of a trend, the strategy of chasing performance usually ends badly. For the most part, these investors are too greedy to sell and lock in their profits. They hold the investment as long as the price is going up and continue to hold it on the way back down - and, when the house of cards folds, they can get hurt.
Doesn't Anybody Win?
There's absolutely no doubt that some investment managers beat their benchmarks. Some even manage the task for prolonged periods of time. That said, even Warren Buffet has down years. It is simply unrealistic to expect that any investment or any strategy will always deliver positive performance. (To learn more about Warren Buffett's investment strategies, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
With that in mind, it is equally important to remember that a bad year does not reflect a bad strategy necessarily. Market conditions change all the time. Factors beyond an individual company's control, such as bad weather, political problems, war, terrorism or simply the need to remodel aging facilities, can cause temporary setbacks. In the long term, these setbacks are just blips on the radar - not a reason to abandon a successful investment.
The Long-Term Trend Is Your Friend
Short-term market performance is unpredictable. Daily price swings occur, sometimes for seemingly irrational reasons, which is why long-term investors ignore short-term distractions. To get a better sense of the long term, take a look at the performance of any major market index over a 20-year period. The trend is for the numbers to move upward. Sure, there are peaks and valleys, but overall, the direction of the movement is up.
Plan to Win
Take advantage of the long-term trend when planning your investment strategy. Accept the fact that your portfolio won't always be in the "right" place at the "right" time, and that you won't always own the "hot" investment. Instead of acting like an amateur and chasing short-term performance, plan your investments like a professional.
Set a long-term goal and then choose a strategy that has a high likelihood of achieving that goal. Make logical decisions, not emotional reactions. Think about inflation and don't count on cash to appreciate at a greater rate. Rely on the time-tested theories of diversification and low-cost investing to help you over the long term.
Conclusion
Although many people manage to build sizable amounts of wealth by jumping from one "hot" strategy to another, the odds are against you if you try to follow in their footsteps. One wrong move and your portfolio's value could suffer irreversible damage. In the long-run, buying and holding will probably leave you at least as well-off, if not better, and it sure is a lot less stressful!
by Lisa Smith (Contact
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Long-Term Investing: Hot Or Not?
by Lisa Smith (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
The headlines blaze from magazine titles, book covers, newspapers and websites: "Beat the market!", "Here's the strategy you need!", "Get rich trading!" and "A five-star fund!" The talking heads on television fuel the fire even further, with some of them dancing around like crazed animals, frothing at the mouth and screaming for investors to "Buy!" It's enough to sway the convictions of even the most rational investors. Unfortunately, these seductive siren songs usually turn out to be all wrong. If you've ever struggled to keep up with market fluctuations in your investment strategy, read on to learn more about a simple investment strategy that will keep your returns on the rise.
The Truth
If these masterful investment strategies were as good as their advertisements, wouldn't there be a lot more rich people in your neighborhood? If the strategies can't lose, why do the mutual fund firms, wire houses and discount brokerages book huge profits while the average investor fares worse than an unmanaged index? The answer is simple: The financial services firms get paid even if you lose money.
The Numbers Don't Lie
According to Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (2006), a study by the financial research organization Dalbar, the average investor in an open-ended mutual fund earned a 3.9% total yearly return for the 20-year period ending December 31, 2005. The S&P 500 index earned an annual return of 11.9%. The index didn't just beat the investors, it crushed them! (To learn more, see You Can't Judge An Index Fund By Its Cover and Index Investing.)
Dalbar reports that the average mutual fund investor purchased a fund and held it for just 4.3 years before selling. That was during good times - the holding period slipped to just 2.5 years during bear markets. Neither time period suggests that the average mutual fund investor understands the objective of long-term investing or the risks involved in short-term trading in pursuit of performance. (For related reading, check out Ten Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor.)
The concept of selling the fund you have in order to purchase something different is encouraged by the idea that better returns can be had if only you choose "the right fund". In seeking this most desirable of all investments, most investors turn to historical performance as their guide. They see a fund with a "five star" rating or a particular sector of the economy (such as technology) delivering "hot" performance, and they trade in their current investments to purchase what they are sure must be "the next big thing". It's a classic mistake. (For more on this, see Digging Deeper: The Mutual Fund Prospectus.)
By the time the average investor is aware of a top-performing fund or industry sector, they are looking at last year's winner. The gains have happened already. The folks that made big money did it last year, last quarter or even last week. It doesn't take long before the investment is overpriced, overvalued and headed downhill. It's the perfect time to sell, but generally a foolish time to buy. Unfortunately, as the Dalbar numbers demonstrate, it's precisely the time far too many investors send their dollars in the wrong direction, buying an investment that is unlikely to repeat its past performance anytime soon.
Even when a few lucky investors do manage to grab on to the tail end of a trend, the strategy of chasing performance usually ends badly. For the most part, these investors are too greedy to sell and lock in their profits. They hold the investment as long as the price is going up and continue to hold it on the way back down - and, when the house of cards folds, they can get hurt.
Doesn't Anybody Win?
There's absolutely no doubt that some investment managers beat their benchmarks. Some even manage the task for prolonged periods of time. That said, even Warren Buffet has down years. It is simply unrealistic to expect that any investment or any strategy will always deliver positive performance. (To learn more about Warren Buffett's investment strategies, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
With that in mind, it is equally important to remember that a bad year does not reflect a bad strategy necessarily. Market conditions change all the time. Factors beyond an individual company's control, such as bad weather, political problems, war, terrorism or simply the need to remodel aging facilities, can cause temporary setbacks. In the long term, these setbacks are just blips on the radar - not a reason to abandon a successful investment.
The Long-Term Trend Is Your Friend
Short-term market performance is unpredictable. Daily price swings occur, sometimes for seemingly irrational reasons, which is why long-term investors ignore short-term distractions. To get a better sense of the long term, take a look at the performance of any major market index over a 20-year period. The trend is for the numbers to move upward. Sure, there are peaks and valleys, but overall, the direction of the movement is up.
Plan to Win
Take advantage of the long-term trend when planning your investment strategy. Accept the fact that your portfolio won't always be in the "right" place at the "right" time, and that you won't always own the "hot" investment. Instead of acting like an amateur and chasing short-term performance, plan your investments like a professional.
Set a long-term goal and then choose a strategy that has a high likelihood of achieving that goal. Make logical decisions, not emotional reactions. Think about inflation and don't count on cash to appreciate at a greater rate. Rely on the time-tested theories of diversification and low-cost investing to help you over the long term.
Conclusion
Although many people manage to build sizable amounts of wealth by jumping from one "hot" strategy to another, the odds are against you if you try to follow in their footsteps. One wrong move and your portfolio's value could suffer irreversible damage. In the long-run, buying and holding will probably leave you at least as well-off, if not better, and it sure is a lot less stressful!
by Lisa Smith (Contact
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Market Timing Fails As A Money Maker
by Brian Bloch (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Active Trading, Banking, Bonds
There are few subjects in the field of investment that are more controversial than that of market timing. Some people claim it is impossible and others claim they can do it for you perfectly - for a small fee. The truth, however, may lie somewhere between the two extremes.
The Basic Dilemma
Markets move in cycles and there are undoubtedly indicators of various kinds that at least potentially reflect the particular market phase at a given time. However, this does not necessarily mean that one can determine when to get in and out both accurately and consistently. (For related reading, see Understanding Cycles - The Key To Market Timing.)
The Critics
Critics of market timing contend that it is nearly impossible to time the market successfully compared to staying fully invested over the same period. This basic rejection of timing has also been confirmed by various studies reported in the Financial Analyst Journal, Journal of Financial Research and other respectable sources.
In 1994, Nobel Memorial Prize winner Paul Samuelson commented in the Journal of Portfolio Management that there are confident investors who move from having almost everything in stocks to the reverse, according to their views of the market. He argued, however, that they do not do better over time than the "cautious chaps" who keep roughly 60% of their money in stocks and the remaining amount in bonds. These investors raise and lower their equity proportions only marginally - there are no big moves in and out.
So what is the solution? A portfolio comprising a manageable number of individual equities purchased and sold for the right financial and economic reasons may be the best way to invest (a total return approach). Such a portfolio is relatively independent of the overall market and no attempt is made to beat a particular index. Even more importantly, this approach does not entail market timing. (For related reading, check out A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
The Supporters
Conversely, the leading German stock picker and market timer, Uwe Lang, claims that when there is danger in the markets, investors should sell out of their equities within two to five days and buy them back when the market starts to rise. Furthermore, Lang calls the buy-and-hold strategy a profit killer. (For related reading, check out Ten Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor.)
Getting the Edge
Investment magazines and internet websites also boast endless claims about market timing benefits. So can investors get this winning edge that will enable them to consistently beat the market? What about all those people out there who offer a remarkable range of methods for market timing? Each claims to have found the solution to the timing problem and provides some sort of evidence of success. They all boast of spectacular returns, often in multiples above the usual market indexes and report how they predicted various booms and crashes or the meteoric rise and fall of this or that stock.
Despite their claims, the standard wisdom is that such models do not and cannot succeed consistently over time. Certainly, both the claims and the evidence should be interpreted with caution. Some of these models may offer some benefit, but investors need to shop around, get second and even third opinions, and draw their own conclusions. Most importantly, investors must avoid putting all of their money into one approach.
After all, although it is difficult to get the timing right, particularly with each and every swing in the cycle, anybody who looked at the market in 1999 and decided to get out and stay out until 2003, would have done incredibly well.
Striking a Balance
For the skeptics, one safe solution to this totally polarized dilemma is simply to abandon timing altogether and put your money in a tracker, which literally goes up and down with the market. Similarly, most investment funds do more less the same thing. If you simply leave your money in such funds for long enough, you should do fairly well, given that equity markets generally rise over the long run. (To learn more, read Index Investing.)
Even if you decide not to try your luck at market timing, you should avoid a totally passive approach to investment. Managing your money actively is not the same as market timing. It is essential to ensure at all times that a portfolio has an appropriate level of risk for your circumstances and preferences. The balance of investments must also be kept up to date, meaning that as asset classes evolve over time, adjustments must be made. (To learn more about how to do this, read Rebalance Your Portfolio To Stay On Track.)
For example, over a boom period for equities, you would need to sell slowly over time to prevent the level of risk of a portfolio from rising. Otherwise, you get what is known as portfolio drift - and more risk than you bargained for. Likewise, if you discover that the investment you were sold in the first place was never right for you, or your circumstances change, you may need to sell out, even if it means taking a loss.
Some professional fund managers also have systems for adjusting portfolios according to market conditions. For example, Julius Baer Private Banking in Zurich offers larger clients a "Flex Allocator" system. This is a mechanism that automatically switches the portfolio between equities and fixed-income investments. The allocator provides a degree of protection from bear markets, while optimizing profits in boom periods. The system is also adjusted according to personal risk profiles. (To learn more, read Surviving Bear Country.)
A Case Study of A Firm that Times the Market
Timing the market with precision is a major challenge, but there are ways to figure out whether one should be going heavier into equities or bonds at a particular point in time. Or even entirely out of one and into the other.
A good example of how this can be done is provided by the Swiss company Indexplus, which uses the relationships between the economy and the market to move in and out "just-in-time". The firm's two partners, Thomas Kamps and Roland Ranz, believe in hanging on until the last moment before the crash, even if that means selling a bit below peak. The rationale for this is that large gains occur in the final frenzy of a bull market - as evidenced in 1999.
In other words, the approach is to let profits run and to minimize losses. They stress that it pays off to risk some losses, but that investors need to get out when the losses are still small. For many investors, this is psychologically very difficult and, as a result, they hang on until there are massive losses. An unemotional, high-tech model can be the best way to make these tough decisions.
Indexplus entails relatively straightforward switches between equities and bonds. The company uses a model that integrates four key variables: market psychology, interest rates, inflation and gross national product into the stock market and macroeconomic environments. A decision is then made on this basis.
The actual investments are partial replications of the Swiss index. This allows for a cost-effective, active process. Furthermore, Kamps and Ranz stress that, particularly in the efficient Swiss market, stock picking does not achieve much. The situation in the U.S. is similar. No one knows for sure how economically efficient the market is, but it is difficult to succeed consistently at stock picking. (For more insight, read our Guide To Stock-Picking Strategies.)
A Delicate Balance of Pros and Cons
Market timing tends to have a bad reputation and some evidence suggests that it does not beat a buy-and-hold strategy over time. However, the investment process should always be an active one and investors should not misinterpret the negative research and opinions on market timing as implying that you can just put your money into an acceptable mix of assets and never give it another thought.
Furthermore, intuition, common sense and a bit of luck may make timing work for you - at least on some occasions. Just be aware of the dangers, the statistics and the experiences of all those who have tried and failed.
by Brian Bloch (Contact Author | Biography)
Brian Bloch started his career as a business academic and moved into management journalism in the late '90s. His experiences as an investor with the financial industry led him into the personal finance area a few years ago, and he finds this line of work particularly rewarding and fascinating. As part of his personal finance work, Brian assists investors who have claims against brokers or firms. See his homepage at www.brian-bloch.com
Filed Under: Active Trading, Banking, Bonds
2. Forex
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4. Credit Crisis
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Article Comments (0)
Market Timing Fails As A Money Maker
by Brian Bloch (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Active Trading, Banking, Bonds
There are few subjects in the field of investment that are more controversial than that of market timing. Some people claim it is impossible and others claim they can do it for you perfectly - for a small fee. The truth, however, may lie somewhere between the two extremes.
The Basic Dilemma
Markets move in cycles and there are undoubtedly indicators of various kinds that at least potentially reflect the particular market phase at a given time. However, this does not necessarily mean that one can determine when to get in and out both accurately and consistently. (For related reading, see Understanding Cycles - The Key To Market Timing.)
The Critics
Critics of market timing contend that it is nearly impossible to time the market successfully compared to staying fully invested over the same period. This basic rejection of timing has also been confirmed by various studies reported in the Financial Analyst Journal, Journal of Financial Research and other respectable sources.
In 1994, Nobel Memorial Prize winner Paul Samuelson commented in the Journal of Portfolio Management that there are confident investors who move from having almost everything in stocks to the reverse, according to their views of the market. He argued, however, that they do not do better over time than the "cautious chaps" who keep roughly 60% of their money in stocks and the remaining amount in bonds. These investors raise and lower their equity proportions only marginally - there are no big moves in and out.
So what is the solution? A portfolio comprising a manageable number of individual equities purchased and sold for the right financial and economic reasons may be the best way to invest (a total return approach). Such a portfolio is relatively independent of the overall market and no attempt is made to beat a particular index. Even more importantly, this approach does not entail market timing. (For related reading, check out A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
The Supporters
Conversely, the leading German stock picker and market timer, Uwe Lang, claims that when there is danger in the markets, investors should sell out of their equities within two to five days and buy them back when the market starts to rise. Furthermore, Lang calls the buy-and-hold strategy a profit killer. (For related reading, check out Ten Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor.)
Getting the Edge
Investment magazines and internet websites also boast endless claims about market timing benefits. So can investors get this winning edge that will enable them to consistently beat the market? What about all those people out there who offer a remarkable range of methods for market timing? Each claims to have found the solution to the timing problem and provides some sort of evidence of success. They all boast of spectacular returns, often in multiples above the usual market indexes and report how they predicted various booms and crashes or the meteoric rise and fall of this or that stock.
Despite their claims, the standard wisdom is that such models do not and cannot succeed consistently over time. Certainly, both the claims and the evidence should be interpreted with caution. Some of these models may offer some benefit, but investors need to shop around, get second and even third opinions, and draw their own conclusions. Most importantly, investors must avoid putting all of their money into one approach.
After all, although it is difficult to get the timing right, particularly with each and every swing in the cycle, anybody who looked at the market in 1999 and decided to get out and stay out until 2003, would have done incredibly well.
Striking a Balance
For the skeptics, one safe solution to this totally polarized dilemma is simply to abandon timing altogether and put your money in a tracker, which literally goes up and down with the market. Similarly, most investment funds do more less the same thing. If you simply leave your money in such funds for long enough, you should do fairly well, given that equity markets generally rise over the long run. (To learn more, read Index Investing.)
Even if you decide not to try your luck at market timing, you should avoid a totally passive approach to investment. Managing your money actively is not the same as market timing. It is essential to ensure at all times that a portfolio has an appropriate level of risk for your circumstances and preferences. The balance of investments must also be kept up to date, meaning that as asset classes evolve over time, adjustments must be made. (To learn more about how to do this, read Rebalance Your Portfolio To Stay On Track.)
For example, over a boom period for equities, you would need to sell slowly over time to prevent the level of risk of a portfolio from rising. Otherwise, you get what is known as portfolio drift - and more risk than you bargained for. Likewise, if you discover that the investment you were sold in the first place was never right for you, or your circumstances change, you may need to sell out, even if it means taking a loss.
Some professional fund managers also have systems for adjusting portfolios according to market conditions. For example, Julius Baer Private Banking in Zurich offers larger clients a "Flex Allocator" system. This is a mechanism that automatically switches the portfolio between equities and fixed-income investments. The allocator provides a degree of protection from bear markets, while optimizing profits in boom periods. The system is also adjusted according to personal risk profiles. (To learn more, read Surviving Bear Country.)
A Case Study of A Firm that Times the Market
Timing the market with precision is a major challenge, but there are ways to figure out whether one should be going heavier into equities or bonds at a particular point in time. Or even entirely out of one and into the other.
A good example of how this can be done is provided by the Swiss company Indexplus, which uses the relationships between the economy and the market to move in and out "just-in-time". The firm's two partners, Thomas Kamps and Roland Ranz, believe in hanging on until the last moment before the crash, even if that means selling a bit below peak. The rationale for this is that large gains occur in the final frenzy of a bull market - as evidenced in 1999.
In other words, the approach is to let profits run and to minimize losses. They stress that it pays off to risk some losses, but that investors need to get out when the losses are still small. For many investors, this is psychologically very difficult and, as a result, they hang on until there are massive losses. An unemotional, high-tech model can be the best way to make these tough decisions.
Indexplus entails relatively straightforward switches between equities and bonds. The company uses a model that integrates four key variables: market psychology, interest rates, inflation and gross national product into the stock market and macroeconomic environments. A decision is then made on this basis.
The actual investments are partial replications of the Swiss index. This allows for a cost-effective, active process. Furthermore, Kamps and Ranz stress that, particularly in the efficient Swiss market, stock picking does not achieve much. The situation in the U.S. is similar. No one knows for sure how economically efficient the market is, but it is difficult to succeed consistently at stock picking. (For more insight, read our Guide To Stock-Picking Strategies.)
A Delicate Balance of Pros and Cons
Market timing tends to have a bad reputation and some evidence suggests that it does not beat a buy-and-hold strategy over time. However, the investment process should always be an active one and investors should not misinterpret the negative research and opinions on market timing as implying that you can just put your money into an acceptable mix of assets and never give it another thought.
Furthermore, intuition, common sense and a bit of luck may make timing work for you - at least on some occasions. Just be aware of the dangers, the statistics and the experiences of all those who have tried and failed.
by Brian Bloch (Contact Author | Biography)
Brian Bloch started his career as a business academic and moved into management journalism in the late '90s. His experiences as an investor with the financial industry led him into the personal finance area a few years ago, and he finds this line of work particularly rewarding and fascinating. As part of his personal finance work, Brian assists investors who have claims against brokers or firms. See his homepage at www.brian-bloch.com
Filed Under: Active Trading, Banking, Bonds
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Water Cooler Finance: The New iPod And The Roller Coaster Market
Posted: September 6, 2010 5:01PM by Erin Joyce
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Filed Under: On This Day In Finance, Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
It was a historic week, as August 31 marked the official end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq after seven years of war. President Obama made no mention of the word "victory" in his address to the nation, but instead spoke of a continued commitment to the people of Iraq. For support, 50,000 American troops will remain in the country. That minor news blip aside, what else was happening in the markets?
IN PICTURES: Top 7 Social Security Myths: Exposed
In The Markets
On September 1, automakers reported the worst August for auto sales in 27 years, according to CNNMoney. With sales just short of 1 million vehicles, the 21% drop from a year ago fell short of analysts' modest expectations. Luckily, the stock market wasn't paying attention to the cars as U.S. stocks grew the most since July, with the S&P 500 gaining 3%, according to Bloomberg. An unprecedented upswing in Chinese and American manufacturing helped push the index up.
However, volatility in the Treasury market hit a three-month high as the instruments declined for the first time in three days in response to the manufacturing increase. Are you feeling seasick yet? Hold on to your hats - September is historically the worst month for stocks. (For more, check out our FAQ on Why people say September is the worst month for investing.)
Tech Toys
In the technology sector, big dogs Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) both had news to share. Apple announced the revamping of its iPod lineup, including a new look, a touchscreen for the Nano and a more iPhone-like iPod Touch. The Touch will now be compatible with Apple's FaceTime video chat feature.
Apple TV is also getting a makeover - and a sale tag. The product will allow you to stream movies and TV shows for a small price, similar to how iTunes operates now. The box itself is now one-fourth the size of previous models, and it will cost $99 – a sharp drop from the previously announced $229.
iTunes Sings With Ping
Just in case none of that news was of interest to you, Apple also announced the launch of a new iTunes update that includes Ping, a social network feature that will allow users to follow the music preferences of friends and artists, according to USA Today.
Not one to be caught sitting idly by, Google made a social media announcement of its own. On August 30, the internet search giant acquired SocialDeck, a social gaming company. With SocialDeck, you can play games, such as Color Connect and PetHero MD, on your smartphone or on social networking sites like Facebook accessed through your PC.
BP & Buffett - WCF Essentials
If you missed hearing about the big headliners in finance, we've got you covered. BP has reported tripling its advertising spending since the oil spill, with BusinessWeek reporting BP's bill coming in at $93.4 million for television, print and web-based advertising. That's an awful lot of polish to shine up the company's corporate image.
IN PICTURES: 6 Millionaire Traits That You Can Adopt
August 30 marked perhaps the most talked about birthday in the financial world: Warren Buffett's. The Oracle of Omaha became an octogenarian this year, and many used the occasion to speculate on when he will die and who will replace him. In fact, apparently money manager Whitney Tilson used a life expectancy calculator to estimate how much time Buffett has left – apparently 12 years. I know I like to spend my birthday reading about my own mortality on the internet! In retaliation, Buffett declared he intends to work well past age 100.
The Bottom Line
The roller coaster that is the financial market continues to threaten to jump tracks, but take heart; at least Apple continues to deliver exciting, shiny gadgets for us to play with. And at least when it's my birthday, I don't have to hear the speculations of thousands as to when I will die. Hopefully Buffett's $62 billion estimated net worth eases the pain.
If you missed last week's financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
Posted: September 6, 2010 5:01PM by Erin Joyce
Email Article Share Buzz up!
Filed Under: On This Day In Finance, Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
It was a historic week, as August 31 marked the official end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq after seven years of war. President Obama made no mention of the word "victory" in his address to the nation, but instead spoke of a continued commitment to the people of Iraq. For support, 50,000 American troops will remain in the country. That minor news blip aside, what else was happening in the markets?
IN PICTURES: Top 7 Social Security Myths: Exposed
In The Markets
On September 1, automakers reported the worst August for auto sales in 27 years, according to CNNMoney. With sales just short of 1 million vehicles, the 21% drop from a year ago fell short of analysts' modest expectations. Luckily, the stock market wasn't paying attention to the cars as U.S. stocks grew the most since July, with the S&P 500 gaining 3%, according to Bloomberg. An unprecedented upswing in Chinese and American manufacturing helped push the index up.
However, volatility in the Treasury market hit a three-month high as the instruments declined for the first time in three days in response to the manufacturing increase. Are you feeling seasick yet? Hold on to your hats - September is historically the worst month for stocks. (For more, check out our FAQ on Why people say September is the worst month for investing.)
Tech Toys
In the technology sector, big dogs Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) both had news to share. Apple announced the revamping of its iPod lineup, including a new look, a touchscreen for the Nano and a more iPhone-like iPod Touch. The Touch will now be compatible with Apple's FaceTime video chat feature.
Apple TV is also getting a makeover - and a sale tag. The product will allow you to stream movies and TV shows for a small price, similar to how iTunes operates now. The box itself is now one-fourth the size of previous models, and it will cost $99 – a sharp drop from the previously announced $229.
iTunes Sings With Ping
Just in case none of that news was of interest to you, Apple also announced the launch of a new iTunes update that includes Ping, a social network feature that will allow users to follow the music preferences of friends and artists, according to USA Today.
Not one to be caught sitting idly by, Google made a social media announcement of its own. On August 30, the internet search giant acquired SocialDeck, a social gaming company. With SocialDeck, you can play games, such as Color Connect and PetHero MD, on your smartphone or on social networking sites like Facebook accessed through your PC.
BP & Buffett - WCF Essentials
If you missed hearing about the big headliners in finance, we've got you covered. BP has reported tripling its advertising spending since the oil spill, with BusinessWeek reporting BP's bill coming in at $93.4 million for television, print and web-based advertising. That's an awful lot of polish to shine up the company's corporate image.
IN PICTURES: 6 Millionaire Traits That You Can Adopt
August 30 marked perhaps the most talked about birthday in the financial world: Warren Buffett's. The Oracle of Omaha became an octogenarian this year, and many used the occasion to speculate on when he will die and who will replace him. In fact, apparently money manager Whitney Tilson used a life expectancy calculator to estimate how much time Buffett has left – apparently 12 years. I know I like to spend my birthday reading about my own mortality on the internet! In retaliation, Buffett declared he intends to work well past age 100.
The Bottom Line
The roller coaster that is the financial market continues to threaten to jump tracks, but take heart; at least Apple continues to deliver exciting, shiny gadgets for us to play with. And at least when it's my birthday, I don't have to hear the speculations of thousands as to when I will die. Hopefully Buffett's $62 billion estimated net worth eases the pain.
If you missed last week's financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
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6 Spending Tips From Frugal Billionaires
Posted: August 31, 2010 11:11AM by Jean Folger
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Filed Under: Millionaires, Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
Carlos Slim Helu (Carlos Slim), a telecom tycoon and billionaire with well-known frugal tendencies, has a net worth of $60.6 billion according to Forbes. Assuming no changes in his net worth, he could spend $1,150 a minute for the next 100 years before he ran out of money. To put this in perspective, he could spend in 13 minutes what a minimum-wage earner brings home after an entire year of the daily grind.
IN PICTURES: How To Make Your First $1 Million
Granted, the world's billionaires (all 1,011 of them) are in the debatably enviable position of having, quite literally, more money than they can possibly spend, yet some are still living well below their means, and save money in surprising places. Even non-billionaires (currently 6,864,605,142 of us) can partake in these seven spending tips from frugal billionaires.
Keep Your Home Simple
Billionaires can afford to live in the most exclusive mansions imaginable - and many do, including Bill Gates' sprawling 66,000 square foot, $147.5 million dollar mansion in Medina, Washington - yet frugal billionaires like Warren Buffet choose to keep it simple. Buffet still lives in the five-bedroom house in Omaha that he purchased in 1957 for $31,500. Likewise, Carlos Slim has lived in the same house for more than 40 years. (Want to learn more about the Oracle of Omaha? Read Rules That Warren Buffett Lives By.)
Use Self-Powered or Public Transportation
Thrifty billionaires including John Caudwell, David Cheriton and Chuck Feeney prefer to walk, bike or use public transportation when getting around town. Certainly these wealthy individuals could afford to take a helicopter to their lunch meetings, or ride in chauffeur-driven Bentleys, but they choose to get a little exercise and take advantage of public transportation instead. Good for the bank account and great for the environment.
Buy Your Clothes off the Rack
While some people, regardless of their net value, place a huge emphasis on wearing designer clothes and shoes, some frugal billionaires decide it's simply not worth the effort, or expense. You can find David Cheriton, the Stanford professor who matched Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page to the venture capitalists at Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers (resulting in a large reward of Google stock), wearing jeans and a t-shirt.
Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of the furniture company Ikea, avoids wearing suits, and John Caudwell, mobile phone mogul, buys his clothes off the rack instead of spending his wealth on designer clothes.
Keep your Scissors Sharp
The average haircut costs about $45, but people can and do spend up to $800 per cut and style. Multiply that by 8.6 (to account for a cut every six weeks) and it adds up to $7,200 per year, not including tips. These billionaires can certainly afford the most stylish haircuts, but many cannot be bothered by the time it takes or the high price tag for the posh salons. Billionaires like John Caudwell and David Cheriton opt for cutting their own hair at home.
Drive a Regular Car
While billionaires like Larry Ellison (co-founder and CEO of Oracle Corporation) enjoy spending millions on cars, boats and planes, others remain low key with their vehicles of choice. Jim Walton (of the Wal-Mart clan) drives a 15-year-old pickup truck. Azim Premji, an Indian business tycoon, reportedly drives a Toyota Corolla. And Ingvar Kamprad of Ikea drives a 10-year-old Volvo. The idea is to buy a dependable car, and drive it into the ground. No need for a different car each day of the week for these frugal billionaires.
Skip Luxury Items
It may surprise some of us, but the world's wealthiest person, Carlos Slim (the one who could spend more than a thousand dollars a minute and not run out of money for one hundred years) does not own a yacht or a plane. (Reducing the amount you spend is the easiest way to make your money grow. For more information, read 5 Money-Saving Shopping Tips.)
Many other billionaires have chosen to skip these luxury items. Warren Buffet also avoids these lavish material items, stating "Most toys are just a pain in the neck."
What We Can Learn
Some of the world's billionaires have frugal tendencies. Perhaps this thrifty nature even helped them make some of their money. Regardless, they have chosen to avoid some unnecessary spending (at least on their scale) and the 6,864,605,142 non-billionaires out there can follow suit, eliminating excessive, keep-up-with-the-Jones style spending. No matter what a person's income bracket is, most can usually find a way to cut back on frivolous spending, just like a few frugal billionaires.
Catch up on your financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
Posted: August 31, 2010 11:11AM by Jean Folger
Email Article Share Buzz up! (1)
Filed Under: Millionaires, Personal Finance, Warren Buffett
Carlos Slim Helu (Carlos Slim), a telecom tycoon and billionaire with well-known frugal tendencies, has a net worth of $60.6 billion according to Forbes. Assuming no changes in his net worth, he could spend $1,150 a minute for the next 100 years before he ran out of money. To put this in perspective, he could spend in 13 minutes what a minimum-wage earner brings home after an entire year of the daily grind.
IN PICTURES: How To Make Your First $1 Million
Granted, the world's billionaires (all 1,011 of them) are in the debatably enviable position of having, quite literally, more money than they can possibly spend, yet some are still living well below their means, and save money in surprising places. Even non-billionaires (currently 6,864,605,142 of us) can partake in these seven spending tips from frugal billionaires.
Keep Your Home Simple
Billionaires can afford to live in the most exclusive mansions imaginable - and many do, including Bill Gates' sprawling 66,000 square foot, $147.5 million dollar mansion in Medina, Washington - yet frugal billionaires like Warren Buffet choose to keep it simple. Buffet still lives in the five-bedroom house in Omaha that he purchased in 1957 for $31,500. Likewise, Carlos Slim has lived in the same house for more than 40 years. (Want to learn more about the Oracle of Omaha? Read Rules That Warren Buffett Lives By.)
Use Self-Powered or Public Transportation
Thrifty billionaires including John Caudwell, David Cheriton and Chuck Feeney prefer to walk, bike or use public transportation when getting around town. Certainly these wealthy individuals could afford to take a helicopter to their lunch meetings, or ride in chauffeur-driven Bentleys, but they choose to get a little exercise and take advantage of public transportation instead. Good for the bank account and great for the environment.
Buy Your Clothes off the Rack
While some people, regardless of their net value, place a huge emphasis on wearing designer clothes and shoes, some frugal billionaires decide it's simply not worth the effort, or expense. You can find David Cheriton, the Stanford professor who matched Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page to the venture capitalists at Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers (resulting in a large reward of Google stock), wearing jeans and a t-shirt.
Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of the furniture company Ikea, avoids wearing suits, and John Caudwell, mobile phone mogul, buys his clothes off the rack instead of spending his wealth on designer clothes.
Keep your Scissors Sharp
The average haircut costs about $45, but people can and do spend up to $800 per cut and style. Multiply that by 8.6 (to account for a cut every six weeks) and it adds up to $7,200 per year, not including tips. These billionaires can certainly afford the most stylish haircuts, but many cannot be bothered by the time it takes or the high price tag for the posh salons. Billionaires like John Caudwell and David Cheriton opt for cutting their own hair at home.
Drive a Regular Car
While billionaires like Larry Ellison (co-founder and CEO of Oracle Corporation) enjoy spending millions on cars, boats and planes, others remain low key with their vehicles of choice. Jim Walton (of the Wal-Mart clan) drives a 15-year-old pickup truck. Azim Premji, an Indian business tycoon, reportedly drives a Toyota Corolla. And Ingvar Kamprad of Ikea drives a 10-year-old Volvo. The idea is to buy a dependable car, and drive it into the ground. No need for a different car each day of the week for these frugal billionaires.
Skip Luxury Items
It may surprise some of us, but the world's wealthiest person, Carlos Slim (the one who could spend more than a thousand dollars a minute and not run out of money for one hundred years) does not own a yacht or a plane. (Reducing the amount you spend is the easiest way to make your money grow. For more information, read 5 Money-Saving Shopping Tips.)
Many other billionaires have chosen to skip these luxury items. Warren Buffet also avoids these lavish material items, stating "Most toys are just a pain in the neck."
What We Can Learn
Some of the world's billionaires have frugal tendencies. Perhaps this thrifty nature even helped them make some of their money. Regardless, they have chosen to avoid some unnecessary spending (at least on their scale) and the 6,864,605,142 non-billionaires out there can follow suit, eliminating excessive, keep-up-with-the-Jones style spending. No matter what a person's income bracket is, most can usually find a way to cut back on frivolous spending, just like a few frugal billionaires.
Catch up on your financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
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Wall Street History: Warren Buffett's Birthday!
Posted: September 1, 2010 12:37PM by Andrew Beattie
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Filed Under: Insurance, Millionaires, On This Day In Finance, Warren Buffett
There are a number of memorable events this week in finance, but the headline belongs to the Oracle of Omaha, now an octogenarian. We'll look at that and much more this week. (Missed last week's article? Check out Wall Street History: The Boesky And Siegel Deal.)
IN PICTURES: 6 Ways To Save Money This Summer
80 Years Young
On August 30, 1930, Warren Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska. The landmarks of Buffett's stories are well known today - tutelage under Benjamin Graham, a meeting with Charlie Munger, the purchase of a textile mill - and they all add up to the world's largest fortune built by stock picking. Buffett is worth nearly $50 billion dollars - a big number. He's also 80 years old - not a small number. Buffett likely has very few items on his birthday wish list, but a competent successor is no doubt among them.
Reparations And Hyperinflations
On August 31, 1921, Germany paid its first million marks in reparations, causing the value of the mark to plummet 30%. This was the start of the German hyperinflation. Germany's solution to make the payments was to print more and more marks, setting off massive inflation. This viscous cycle ruined many Germans, pushing them to call for radical political changes and helping Hitler's sweep to power.
In one of the great "I told you so" moments in history, John Maynard Keynes predicted the reparations system leading to another all-out war of even larger proportions. But no one really listens to economists unless it's something they want to hear.
Great Fire Brings Insurance Inland
On September 2, 1666, the Great Fire of London broke out and burnt for three days, destroying 10,000 buildings including St. Paul's Cathedral. The event was so catastrophic that many businesses began seeking insurance. Insurance had been around for a long time, but it was largely aimed at covering risky ventures from storms, pirates and the occasional bad navigators. With a large demand for fire insurance, the marine insurers began selling dry land policies. (To learn more, see The History Behind Insurance.)
The Treasury Department is Formed
On September 2, 1789, the U.S. Treasury came into being. The first secretary of the Treasury was Alexander Hamilton. Broadly speaking, Hamilton laid the foundation for the nation's financial system from the minting of money to the setting of duties on imports to fund government. Hamilton was far from flawless, but his strong guidance stabilized America as a nation and gave foreign investors confidence in the value of American bonds. This inflow of foreign capital helped the U.S. rebuild after the Revolutionary War.
Let There Be Light
On September 4, 1882, the Edison Electric Illuminating Company started up its first electrical plant to distribute electricity in New York's shopping and financial district. The Pearl Street generator started as a novelty act, lighting up shop fronts with electric lights. Soon, however, appliances running off electric motors began to appear. The electrical revolution added to the breakneck pace of innovation that carried the U.S. to the forefront of the world. After being bought up at the turn of the 20th century, Edison Electric Illuminating Company is now known as Consolidated Edison.
Bailout Buyout
Remember when JPMorgan bought out Bear Stearns with the government's blessings? On September 5, 1988 a very similar situation unfolded in the savings and loan crisis as it did in the mortgage meltdown. On this day, the Robert M. Bass group bought up (read, bailed out) the American Savings and Loan Association with $2 billion worth of government aid. The company cost Bass less than half a billion of its own capital. American S&L Association was split in two - echoes of good GM and bad GM - with the good assets going to Bass and the rest into a resolution entity.
The overall S&L bailout was considered a huge burden on the taxpayer at over $120 billion. If only we could pull out of the mortgage crises and the Great Recession with that small of a bill. Fannie and Freddie alone are expected to cost $160 billion plus possible ongoing expenses (the extreme estimate out now is $500 billion). (To learn more, see Top 6 U.S. Government Financial Bailouts.)
That's all for this week. Next week we will look at Jack Welch, Chrysler's first bailout and much more.
Catch up on your financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
Posted: September 1, 2010 12:37PM by Andrew Beattie
Email Article Share Buzz up!
Filed Under: Insurance, Millionaires, On This Day In Finance, Warren Buffett
There are a number of memorable events this week in finance, but the headline belongs to the Oracle of Omaha, now an octogenarian. We'll look at that and much more this week. (Missed last week's article? Check out Wall Street History: The Boesky And Siegel Deal.)
IN PICTURES: 6 Ways To Save Money This Summer
80 Years Young
On August 30, 1930, Warren Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska. The landmarks of Buffett's stories are well known today - tutelage under Benjamin Graham, a meeting with Charlie Munger, the purchase of a textile mill - and they all add up to the world's largest fortune built by stock picking. Buffett is worth nearly $50 billion dollars - a big number. He's also 80 years old - not a small number. Buffett likely has very few items on his birthday wish list, but a competent successor is no doubt among them.
Reparations And Hyperinflations
On August 31, 1921, Germany paid its first million marks in reparations, causing the value of the mark to plummet 30%. This was the start of the German hyperinflation. Germany's solution to make the payments was to print more and more marks, setting off massive inflation. This viscous cycle ruined many Germans, pushing them to call for radical political changes and helping Hitler's sweep to power.
In one of the great "I told you so" moments in history, John Maynard Keynes predicted the reparations system leading to another all-out war of even larger proportions. But no one really listens to economists unless it's something they want to hear.
Great Fire Brings Insurance Inland
On September 2, 1666, the Great Fire of London broke out and burnt for three days, destroying 10,000 buildings including St. Paul's Cathedral. The event was so catastrophic that many businesses began seeking insurance. Insurance had been around for a long time, but it was largely aimed at covering risky ventures from storms, pirates and the occasional bad navigators. With a large demand for fire insurance, the marine insurers began selling dry land policies. (To learn more, see The History Behind Insurance.)
The Treasury Department is Formed
On September 2, 1789, the U.S. Treasury came into being. The first secretary of the Treasury was Alexander Hamilton. Broadly speaking, Hamilton laid the foundation for the nation's financial system from the minting of money to the setting of duties on imports to fund government. Hamilton was far from flawless, but his strong guidance stabilized America as a nation and gave foreign investors confidence in the value of American bonds. This inflow of foreign capital helped the U.S. rebuild after the Revolutionary War.
Let There Be Light
On September 4, 1882, the Edison Electric Illuminating Company started up its first electrical plant to distribute electricity in New York's shopping and financial district. The Pearl Street generator started as a novelty act, lighting up shop fronts with electric lights. Soon, however, appliances running off electric motors began to appear. The electrical revolution added to the breakneck pace of innovation that carried the U.S. to the forefront of the world. After being bought up at the turn of the 20th century, Edison Electric Illuminating Company is now known as Consolidated Edison.
Bailout Buyout
Remember when JPMorgan bought out Bear Stearns with the government's blessings? On September 5, 1988 a very similar situation unfolded in the savings and loan crisis as it did in the mortgage meltdown. On this day, the Robert M. Bass group bought up (read, bailed out) the American Savings and Loan Association with $2 billion worth of government aid. The company cost Bass less than half a billion of its own capital. American S&L Association was split in two - echoes of good GM and bad GM - with the good assets going to Bass and the rest into a resolution entity.
The overall S&L bailout was considered a huge burden on the taxpayer at over $120 billion. If only we could pull out of the mortgage crises and the Great Recession with that small of a bill. Fannie and Freddie alone are expected to cost $160 billion plus possible ongoing expenses (the extreme estimate out now is $500 billion). (To learn more, see Top 6 U.S. Government Financial Bailouts.)
That's all for this week. Next week we will look at Jack Welch, Chrysler's first bailout and much more.
Catch up on your financial news; read Water Cooler Finance: The Ups And Downs Of A Double-Dip Recession.
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
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Top 5 All-Time Best Mutual Fund Managers
by Daniel Myers,CFA (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Mutual Funds, Warren Buffett
Great money managers are like the rock stars of the financial world. While Warren Buffett is a household name to many, to stock geeks, Graham, Templeton and Lynch lead to extended conversations on investment philosophies and performance.
The greatest mutual fund managers produce long-term, market-beating returns and helped many individual investors build significant nest eggs.
Criteria
Before we get to the list, let's take a look at the criteria used to choose the top five:
Long-term performers: We only consider those managers with a long history of market-beating performance.
Retired managers only: We only consider those managers who have finished their careers.
No "team managed" funds: These were not evaluated because the teams might change midway through the results. Besides, as John Templeton put it, "I am not aware of any mutual fund that was run by a committee that ever had a superior record, except accidentally."
Contributions: The top managers also made contributions to the investment industry, as well as their own companies.
Benjamin Graham
The "father of security analysis" is in the top spot. Many may not think of Benjamin Graham as a fund manager, but he qualifies because he managed the modern equivalent of a closed-end mutual fund with his partner Jerome Newman from 1936-1956.
Investment Style: Deep value investing. (For more on value investing, read Stock-Picking Strategies: Value Investing and Value Investing Using The Enterprise Multiple.)
Best Investment: GEICO (NYSE:BRK.A) - It spun-off to Graham-Newman shareholders at $27 per share and rose to the equivalent of $54,000 per share. Oddly, the GEICO purchase became his most successful investment, although it didn't fit into his deep discount strategy very well. Most of Graham's positions were sold in less than two years, but he held GEICO stock for decades. His main investments were numerous low-risk arbitrage situations.
Major Contributions: He wrote "Security Analysis" with fellow Columbia Professor David Dodd (1934), "The Interpretation of Financial Statements" (1937) and later, "The Intelligent Investor" (1949), which inspired Warren Buffett to seek out Graham and study under him at Columbia and later to work for him at the Graham-Newman Corporation.
Graham also helped start what would later become the CFA Institute. Graham started on Wall Street in 1914 - long before securities markets were regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and saw the need for certification of security analysts - thus the CFA exam. (For more on your CFA exam, see Prepare For Your CFA Exams.)
Besides Buffett, Graham also mentored numerous pupils who went on to have fabulous investment careers of their own, but whose names aren't in the public eye. (For more on Graham, read The Intelligent Investor: Benjamin Graham and The 3 Most Timeless Investment Principles.)
Estimated Return: Reports vary due to the time period in question as well as the calculation methods used, but John Train reported in "The Money Masters" (2000) that Graham's fund, the Graham-Newman Corporation, earned 21% annually over 20 years. "If one invested $10,000 in 1936, one received an average of $2,100 a year for the next 20 years, and recovered one's original $10,000 at the end."
Sir John Templeton
According to Forbes Magazine, Templeton is the "dean of global investing" and was knighted by the Queen of England for his contributions. Templeton was a philanthropist, Rhodes Scholar, CFA Charterholder and a benefactor to Oxford University who pioneered global investing and found the best opportunities in crisis situations.
Investment Style: Global contrarian and value investor.
His strategy was to buy investments when, in his words, they hit the "point of maximum pessimism." As an example of this strategy, Templeton bought shares of every public European company trading for less than $1 per share at the outset of World War II, including many that were in bankruptcy. He did this with $10,000 of borrowed money. After four years, he sold them for $40,000. This profit financed his foray into the investment business. Templeton also sought out underappreciated fundamental success stories around the world. He wanted to find out which country was poised for a turnaround before everyone else knew the story.
Best Investments:
Europe, at the start of World War II
Japan, 1962
Ford Motors (NYSE:F), 1978 (it was near bankruptcy)
Peru, 1980s.
Shorted technology stocks in 2000
Major Contributions: Built a major part of today's Franklin Resources (Franklin Templeton Investments). Templeton College at Oxford University's Said Business School is also named after him.
Estimated Return: He managed the Templeton Growth Fund from 1954 to 1987. Each $10,000 invested in the Class A shares in 1954 would have grown to more than $2 million by 1992 (when he sold the company) with dividends reinvested, or an annualized return of about 14.5%.
T. Rowe Price, Jr.
T. Rowe Price entered Wall Street in the 1920s and founded an investment firm in 1937, but he didn't start his first fund until much later. Price sold the firm to his employees in 1971, and it eventually went public in the mid 1980s. He is commonly quoted as saying, "What is good for the client is also good for the firm."
Investment style: Value and long-term growth.
Price invested in companies that he believed had good management, were in "fertile fields" (attractive long-term industries), and were industry leaders. He wanted companies that could grow for many years because he preferred to hold investments for decades.
Best Investments: Merck (NYSE:MRK) in 1940; he reportedly made more than 200 times his original investment. Coca-Cola (Nasdaq:COKE), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Avon Products (NYSE:AVP) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) were other notable investments.
Major Contributions: Price was one of the first to charge a fee based on the assets under management and rather than a commission for managing money. Today, this is common practice. Price also pioneered the growth style of investing by aiming to buy and hold for the long term and combining this with wide diversification. He founded publicly traded investment manager T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq:TROW) in 1937. (For more insight on growth investing, see Stock-Picking Strategies: Growth Investing.)
Results: Individual fund results for Price are not very useful as he managed a number of funds, but two were mentioned in Nikki Ross' book "Lessons from the Legends of Wall Street"(2000). His first fund was started in 1950 and had the best 10-year performance of the decade - approximately 500%. Emerging Growth Fund was founded in 1960 and was also a standout performer with such names as Xerox (NYSE:XRX), H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) (also a long-time holding of Philip Fisher).
John Neff
The Ohio-born Neff joined Wellington Management Co. in 1964 and stayed with the company for more than 30 years managing three of its funds. One of John Neff's preferred investment tactics was to invest in popular industries through indirect paths, for example, in a hot homebuilder market he may have looked to buy companies that supplied materials to the homebuilders.
Investment Style: Value, or low P/E, high-yield investing.
Neff focused on companies with low price-earnings ratios (P/E ratios) and strong dividend yields. He sold when investment fundamentals deteriorated or the price met his target price. The psychology of investing was an important part of his strategy.
He also liked to add the dividend yield to the growth in earnings and divide this by the P/E ratio for a "you get what you pay for" ratio. For example, if the dividend yield was 5% and the earnings growth was 10%, then he would add these two together and divide by the P/E ratio. If this was 10, then he took 15 (the "what you get" number) and divided it by 10 (the "what you pay for" number). In this example the ratio is 15/10 = 1.5. Anything over 1.0 was considered attractive.
Best Investment: In 1984/1985, Neff started to acquire a large stake in Ford Motor Company; three years later, it had increased to nearly four times what he'd originally paid.
Major Contributions: Wrote an investing how-to book covering his entire career year by year entitled "John Neff on Investing"(1999).
Results: John Neff ran the Windsor Fund for 31 years ending in 1995 and earned a return of 13.7%, versus 10.6% for the S&P 500 over that time span. This amounts to a gain of more than 55 times an initial investment made in in 1964.
Peter Lynch
A graduate of Penn's Wharton School of Business, Lynch practiced what he called "relentless pursuit." He visited company after company to find out if there was a small change for the better that the market hadn't picked up on yet. If he liked it, he'd buy a little and if the story got better, he'd buy more, eventually owning thousands of stocks in what became the largest actively managed mutual fund in the world, the Fidelity Magellan Fund.
Investment style: Growth and cyclical recovery
Lynch is generally considered to be a long-term growth style investor, but is rumored to have made most of his gains through traditional cyclical recovery and value plays.
Best Investments: Pep Boys (NYSE:PBY), Dunkin' Donuts, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD); they were all "tenbaggers"
Major Contributions: Lynch made Fidelity Investments into a household name. He also wrote several books, namely "One Up on Wall Street"(1989) and "Beating the Street" (1993). He gave hope to do-it-yourself investors saying "use what you know and buy to beat Wall Street gurus at their own game."
Results: Lynch is widely quote as saying that a $1,000 in Magellan on May 31, 1977, it would have been worth $28,000 on by 1990.
Conclusion
These top money managers amassed great fortunes not only for themselves, but for those who invested in their funds as well. One thing they all have in common is that they often took an unconventional approach to investing and went against the herd. As any experienced investor knows, forging your own path and producing long-term, market-beating returns is no easy task. As such, it's easy to see how these five investors carved a place for themselves in financial history.
For more on mutual funds, see our Special Feature: Mutual Funds.
by Daniel Myers,CFA (Contact Author | Biography)
Daniel Myers has earned the CFA designation, and has managed money for investors since 1998.
Filed Under: Mutual Funds, Warren Buffett
by Daniel Myers,CFA (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Mutual Funds, Warren Buffett
Great money managers are like the rock stars of the financial world. While Warren Buffett is a household name to many, to stock geeks, Graham, Templeton and Lynch lead to extended conversations on investment philosophies and performance.
The greatest mutual fund managers produce long-term, market-beating returns and helped many individual investors build significant nest eggs.
Criteria
Before we get to the list, let's take a look at the criteria used to choose the top five:
Long-term performers: We only consider those managers with a long history of market-beating performance.
Retired managers only: We only consider those managers who have finished their careers.
No "team managed" funds: These were not evaluated because the teams might change midway through the results. Besides, as John Templeton put it, "I am not aware of any mutual fund that was run by a committee that ever had a superior record, except accidentally."
Contributions: The top managers also made contributions to the investment industry, as well as their own companies.
Benjamin Graham
The "father of security analysis" is in the top spot. Many may not think of Benjamin Graham as a fund manager, but he qualifies because he managed the modern equivalent of a closed-end mutual fund with his partner Jerome Newman from 1936-1956.
Investment Style: Deep value investing. (For more on value investing, read Stock-Picking Strategies: Value Investing and Value Investing Using The Enterprise Multiple.)
Best Investment: GEICO (NYSE:BRK.A) - It spun-off to Graham-Newman shareholders at $27 per share and rose to the equivalent of $54,000 per share. Oddly, the GEICO purchase became his most successful investment, although it didn't fit into his deep discount strategy very well. Most of Graham's positions were sold in less than two years, but he held GEICO stock for decades. His main investments were numerous low-risk arbitrage situations.
Major Contributions: He wrote "Security Analysis" with fellow Columbia Professor David Dodd (1934), "The Interpretation of Financial Statements" (1937) and later, "The Intelligent Investor" (1949), which inspired Warren Buffett to seek out Graham and study under him at Columbia and later to work for him at the Graham-Newman Corporation.
Graham also helped start what would later become the CFA Institute. Graham started on Wall Street in 1914 - long before securities markets were regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and saw the need for certification of security analysts - thus the CFA exam. (For more on your CFA exam, see Prepare For Your CFA Exams.)
Besides Buffett, Graham also mentored numerous pupils who went on to have fabulous investment careers of their own, but whose names aren't in the public eye. (For more on Graham, read The Intelligent Investor: Benjamin Graham and The 3 Most Timeless Investment Principles.)
Estimated Return: Reports vary due to the time period in question as well as the calculation methods used, but John Train reported in "The Money Masters" (2000) that Graham's fund, the Graham-Newman Corporation, earned 21% annually over 20 years. "If one invested $10,000 in 1936, one received an average of $2,100 a year for the next 20 years, and recovered one's original $10,000 at the end."
Sir John Templeton
According to Forbes Magazine, Templeton is the "dean of global investing" and was knighted by the Queen of England for his contributions. Templeton was a philanthropist, Rhodes Scholar, CFA Charterholder and a benefactor to Oxford University who pioneered global investing and found the best opportunities in crisis situations.
Investment Style: Global contrarian and value investor.
His strategy was to buy investments when, in his words, they hit the "point of maximum pessimism." As an example of this strategy, Templeton bought shares of every public European company trading for less than $1 per share at the outset of World War II, including many that were in bankruptcy. He did this with $10,000 of borrowed money. After four years, he sold them for $40,000. This profit financed his foray into the investment business. Templeton also sought out underappreciated fundamental success stories around the world. He wanted to find out which country was poised for a turnaround before everyone else knew the story.
Best Investments:
Europe, at the start of World War II
Japan, 1962
Ford Motors (NYSE:F), 1978 (it was near bankruptcy)
Peru, 1980s.
Shorted technology stocks in 2000
Major Contributions: Built a major part of today's Franklin Resources (Franklin Templeton Investments). Templeton College at Oxford University's Said Business School is also named after him.
Estimated Return: He managed the Templeton Growth Fund from 1954 to 1987. Each $10,000 invested in the Class A shares in 1954 would have grown to more than $2 million by 1992 (when he sold the company) with dividends reinvested, or an annualized return of about 14.5%.
T. Rowe Price, Jr.
T. Rowe Price entered Wall Street in the 1920s and founded an investment firm in 1937, but he didn't start his first fund until much later. Price sold the firm to his employees in 1971, and it eventually went public in the mid 1980s. He is commonly quoted as saying, "What is good for the client is also good for the firm."
Investment style: Value and long-term growth.
Price invested in companies that he believed had good management, were in "fertile fields" (attractive long-term industries), and were industry leaders. He wanted companies that could grow for many years because he preferred to hold investments for decades.
Best Investments: Merck (NYSE:MRK) in 1940; he reportedly made more than 200 times his original investment. Coca-Cola (Nasdaq:COKE), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Avon Products (NYSE:AVP) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) were other notable investments.
Major Contributions: Price was one of the first to charge a fee based on the assets under management and rather than a commission for managing money. Today, this is common practice. Price also pioneered the growth style of investing by aiming to buy and hold for the long term and combining this with wide diversification. He founded publicly traded investment manager T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq:TROW) in 1937. (For more insight on growth investing, see Stock-Picking Strategies: Growth Investing.)
Results: Individual fund results for Price are not very useful as he managed a number of funds, but two were mentioned in Nikki Ross' book "Lessons from the Legends of Wall Street"(2000). His first fund was started in 1950 and had the best 10-year performance of the decade - approximately 500%. Emerging Growth Fund was founded in 1960 and was also a standout performer with such names as Xerox (NYSE:XRX), H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) (also a long-time holding of Philip Fisher).
John Neff
The Ohio-born Neff joined Wellington Management Co. in 1964 and stayed with the company for more than 30 years managing three of its funds. One of John Neff's preferred investment tactics was to invest in popular industries through indirect paths, for example, in a hot homebuilder market he may have looked to buy companies that supplied materials to the homebuilders.
Investment Style: Value, or low P/E, high-yield investing.
Neff focused on companies with low price-earnings ratios (P/E ratios) and strong dividend yields. He sold when investment fundamentals deteriorated or the price met his target price. The psychology of investing was an important part of his strategy.
He also liked to add the dividend yield to the growth in earnings and divide this by the P/E ratio for a "you get what you pay for" ratio. For example, if the dividend yield was 5% and the earnings growth was 10%, then he would add these two together and divide by the P/E ratio. If this was 10, then he took 15 (the "what you get" number) and divided it by 10 (the "what you pay for" number). In this example the ratio is 15/10 = 1.5. Anything over 1.0 was considered attractive.
Best Investment: In 1984/1985, Neff started to acquire a large stake in Ford Motor Company; three years later, it had increased to nearly four times what he'd originally paid.
Major Contributions: Wrote an investing how-to book covering his entire career year by year entitled "John Neff on Investing"(1999).
Results: John Neff ran the Windsor Fund for 31 years ending in 1995 and earned a return of 13.7%, versus 10.6% for the S&P 500 over that time span. This amounts to a gain of more than 55 times an initial investment made in in 1964.
Peter Lynch
A graduate of Penn's Wharton School of Business, Lynch practiced what he called "relentless pursuit." He visited company after company to find out if there was a small change for the better that the market hadn't picked up on yet. If he liked it, he'd buy a little and if the story got better, he'd buy more, eventually owning thousands of stocks in what became the largest actively managed mutual fund in the world, the Fidelity Magellan Fund.
Investment style: Growth and cyclical recovery
Lynch is generally considered to be a long-term growth style investor, but is rumored to have made most of his gains through traditional cyclical recovery and value plays.
Best Investments: Pep Boys (NYSE:PBY), Dunkin' Donuts, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD); they were all "tenbaggers"
Major Contributions: Lynch made Fidelity Investments into a household name. He also wrote several books, namely "One Up on Wall Street"(1989) and "Beating the Street" (1993). He gave hope to do-it-yourself investors saying "use what you know and buy to beat Wall Street gurus at their own game."
Results: Lynch is widely quote as saying that a $1,000 in Magellan on May 31, 1977, it would have been worth $28,000 on by 1990.
Conclusion
These top money managers amassed great fortunes not only for themselves, but for those who invested in their funds as well. One thing they all have in common is that they often took an unconventional approach to investing and went against the herd. As any experienced investor knows, forging your own path and producing long-term, market-beating returns is no easy task. As such, it's easy to see how these five investors carved a place for themselves in financial history.
For more on mutual funds, see our Special Feature: Mutual Funds.
by Daniel Myers,CFA (Contact Author | Biography)
Daniel Myers has earned the CFA designation, and has managed money for investors since 1998.
Filed Under: Mutual Funds, Warren Buffett
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Qualitative Analysis: What Makes A Company Great?
by Will Ashworth (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Active Trading, Business, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Warren Buffett
Evaluating stocks involves two types of analysis: fundamental and technical. The former is all about number crunching while the latter uses up-and-down squiggly lines to chart a stock's course. In the end, it's all about being right more often than wrong. Investment professionals are constantly looking for that slight edge over the competition. One place they might easily overlook (but shouldn't) is within the realm of qualitative analysis, a subjective area that is sometimes referred to as soft metrics. This refers to aspects of a public company that aren't quantifiable or easily explained by numbers. In general, it's an underappreciated and underutilized side of fundamental analysis. (For a quick background look at this topic, see Stock Picking Strategies: Qualitative Analysis.)
The Usual Suspects
When conducting qualitative analysis of a company, most investment professionals look at the business model, competitive advantage in the industry, management and corporate governance. This helps to determine how a company makes money, its uniqueness versus the competition, which people are making the decisions and how they treat ordinary shareholders. Gathering all of this data can provide a better idea of how a company intends to grow its business while rewarding shareholders. However, it isn't the entire picture. Touchy-feely subjects like satisfying the customer, rewarding employees and maintaining excellent supplier relationships matter.
The Unheralded
Understanding the qualities that make a company great involve more than a simple SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) - that's business school 101 stuff. To evaluate a company's intangibles, one must dig below the surface and beyond the 10-K. Satisfaction is the key here and successful businesses have it in abundance.
If a company fails to satisfy employees, suppliers and customers, in this order, it's only a matter of time before its stock price implodes. Arguments exist for both sides of the discussion. Some academics believe that customer satisfaction and employee satisfaction aren't mutually exclusive. Just because employees are happy doesn't guarantee customer loyalty. That might be so, however, Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos.com, the world's biggest online shoe retailer and winner of countless customer service awards said in a May 2010 article in SUCCESS magazine that "... Customer service is about making customers happy, and the culture is about making employees happy. So, really, we're about trying to deliver happiness, whether it's to customers or employees, and we apply that same philosophy to vendors as well." This winning attitude may have contributed to Amazon.com's (Nasdaq:AMZN) acquisition of the business for $1.2 billion in 2009. (For more on the online sector, check out Choosing The Winners In The Click-And-Mortar Game.)
Employee Satisfaction
Any company that's truly interested in customer satisfaction must first meet the needs of its employees; otherwise, it's putting the cart before the horse. JetBlue (Nasdaq:JBLU) came to realize in 2007 that it wasn't doing a good job satisfying employees when it stranded thousands of its passengers because of a New York City ice storm. Employee morale dropped and with it, customer satisfaction. Up to that point, the company surveyed employees once a year looking for feedback. It needed to do more and so it implemented "Net Promoter", a scoring system that calculates how many employees are actively promoting the company, both as a place to work and as a place to do business. Once it began to look at employee satisfaction department by department, it was able to deliver programs that put everyone on the same page, and results followed.
Employees are the face of any brand. The quickest way to destroy brand equity is to disrespect them. Once you've lost trust, it's only a matter of time before you lose the customer. Without customers, you have no business! It's a slippery slope that privately owned software firm SAS knows well. CEO and founder Jim Goodnight has been in charge for all 34 years in business and from the beginning he's emphasized employee benefits leading to 13 straight years on Fortune's "100 Best Companies To Work For" list. In its 2008 corporate social responsibility report the company states, "If you treat employees as if they make a difference to the company, they will make a difference to the company ... At the heart of this unique business model is a simple idea: Satisfied employees create satisfied customers." Public companies are no different.
Supplier Satisfaction
No matter how vertically integrated your company is, you will always have suppliers of one kind or another and those relationships can positively or negatively impact the quality of your final product or service. One of Whole Foods' (Nasdaq:WFMI) seven core values is its commitment to its suppliers. By creating a true partnership with the companies it buys from, it is able to provide its customers with a fabulous shopping experience. It's not enough, however, to have great customer service - the food has to match. Whole Foods tends to score high on this front as well, and by doing so is able to maintain price points that are higher than in most regular grocery stores, delivering greater profits. (Learn more in Measuring Company Efficiency.)
Customer Satisfaction
The marketing profession has tried for years to quantify customer satisfaction in a way that lends itself to clarifying a brand's equity or worth. Annual studies like the American Customer Satisfaction Index, Prophet's Reputation Management Index and Forrester Research's Customer Experience Index are just three examples. For instance, the American Customer Satisfaction Index has shown that the stock prices of companies ranking higher in the index tend to do better than those lower down. In fact, between 1994 and 2007, companies ranking in the top 25% of the index created $420 billion in wealth for shareholders versus $111 billion for those in the bottom 25% -in other words, companies that please their customers are shown to create four times the wealth.
Most analysts would agree that market capitalization is greatly influenced by brand power. In a study by marketing gurus David Aaker and Robert Jacobson, 34 companies examined between 1989 and 1992 and found that those with the largest increase in brand equity averaged stock returns of 30% while the ones losing the most brand equity dropped 10% on average. If you're not quite sold on the idea of customer satisfaction affecting stock prices, Forrester Research's annual Customer Experience Index ranks the best and worst in customer service. Companies in the top 10 routinely outperform the S&P 500. If the findings are altered slightly to consider operating profits, the results are even more pronounced. (For more, see Competitive Advantage Counts.)
Satisfaction Guaranteed
Investors tend to spend most of their time worrying about quantitative analysis. Ratios like price-to-earnings and price-to-book get all the attention while numberless intangibles like customer satisfaction are left to annual surveys that are quickly swept under the carpet, never to be seen again. Let's face it: we live in a quantitative world. Everything we do revolves around top 10 lists of one kind or another. We want a shortcut and lists meet this need. Qualitative analysis, on the other hand, is tricky stuff, and most Warren Buffett wannabes find it too subjective. However, any business whose stock price has risen consistently over time has surely satisfied all its stakeholders. As the Warren Buffett has been quoted as saying many times in the past: "Beware of geeks bearing formulas." (For more lessons from the mavens, check out our Greatest Investors Tutorial.)
by Will Ashworth (Contact Author | Biography)
by Will Ashworth (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Active Trading, Business, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Warren Buffett
Evaluating stocks involves two types of analysis: fundamental and technical. The former is all about number crunching while the latter uses up-and-down squiggly lines to chart a stock's course. In the end, it's all about being right more often than wrong. Investment professionals are constantly looking for that slight edge over the competition. One place they might easily overlook (but shouldn't) is within the realm of qualitative analysis, a subjective area that is sometimes referred to as soft metrics. This refers to aspects of a public company that aren't quantifiable or easily explained by numbers. In general, it's an underappreciated and underutilized side of fundamental analysis. (For a quick background look at this topic, see Stock Picking Strategies: Qualitative Analysis.)
The Usual Suspects
When conducting qualitative analysis of a company, most investment professionals look at the business model, competitive advantage in the industry, management and corporate governance. This helps to determine how a company makes money, its uniqueness versus the competition, which people are making the decisions and how they treat ordinary shareholders. Gathering all of this data can provide a better idea of how a company intends to grow its business while rewarding shareholders. However, it isn't the entire picture. Touchy-feely subjects like satisfying the customer, rewarding employees and maintaining excellent supplier relationships matter.
The Unheralded
Understanding the qualities that make a company great involve more than a simple SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) - that's business school 101 stuff. To evaluate a company's intangibles, one must dig below the surface and beyond the 10-K. Satisfaction is the key here and successful businesses have it in abundance.
If a company fails to satisfy employees, suppliers and customers, in this order, it's only a matter of time before its stock price implodes. Arguments exist for both sides of the discussion. Some academics believe that customer satisfaction and employee satisfaction aren't mutually exclusive. Just because employees are happy doesn't guarantee customer loyalty. That might be so, however, Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos.com, the world's biggest online shoe retailer and winner of countless customer service awards said in a May 2010 article in SUCCESS magazine that "... Customer service is about making customers happy, and the culture is about making employees happy. So, really, we're about trying to deliver happiness, whether it's to customers or employees, and we apply that same philosophy to vendors as well." This winning attitude may have contributed to Amazon.com's (Nasdaq:AMZN) acquisition of the business for $1.2 billion in 2009. (For more on the online sector, check out Choosing The Winners In The Click-And-Mortar Game.)
Employee Satisfaction
Any company that's truly interested in customer satisfaction must first meet the needs of its employees; otherwise, it's putting the cart before the horse. JetBlue (Nasdaq:JBLU) came to realize in 2007 that it wasn't doing a good job satisfying employees when it stranded thousands of its passengers because of a New York City ice storm. Employee morale dropped and with it, customer satisfaction. Up to that point, the company surveyed employees once a year looking for feedback. It needed to do more and so it implemented "Net Promoter", a scoring system that calculates how many employees are actively promoting the company, both as a place to work and as a place to do business. Once it began to look at employee satisfaction department by department, it was able to deliver programs that put everyone on the same page, and results followed.
Employees are the face of any brand. The quickest way to destroy brand equity is to disrespect them. Once you've lost trust, it's only a matter of time before you lose the customer. Without customers, you have no business! It's a slippery slope that privately owned software firm SAS knows well. CEO and founder Jim Goodnight has been in charge for all 34 years in business and from the beginning he's emphasized employee benefits leading to 13 straight years on Fortune's "100 Best Companies To Work For" list. In its 2008 corporate social responsibility report the company states, "If you treat employees as if they make a difference to the company, they will make a difference to the company ... At the heart of this unique business model is a simple idea: Satisfied employees create satisfied customers." Public companies are no different.
Supplier Satisfaction
No matter how vertically integrated your company is, you will always have suppliers of one kind or another and those relationships can positively or negatively impact the quality of your final product or service. One of Whole Foods' (Nasdaq:WFMI) seven core values is its commitment to its suppliers. By creating a true partnership with the companies it buys from, it is able to provide its customers with a fabulous shopping experience. It's not enough, however, to have great customer service - the food has to match. Whole Foods tends to score high on this front as well, and by doing so is able to maintain price points that are higher than in most regular grocery stores, delivering greater profits. (Learn more in Measuring Company Efficiency.)
Customer Satisfaction
The marketing profession has tried for years to quantify customer satisfaction in a way that lends itself to clarifying a brand's equity or worth. Annual studies like the American Customer Satisfaction Index, Prophet's Reputation Management Index and Forrester Research's Customer Experience Index are just three examples. For instance, the American Customer Satisfaction Index has shown that the stock prices of companies ranking higher in the index tend to do better than those lower down. In fact, between 1994 and 2007, companies ranking in the top 25% of the index created $420 billion in wealth for shareholders versus $111 billion for those in the bottom 25% -in other words, companies that please their customers are shown to create four times the wealth.
Most analysts would agree that market capitalization is greatly influenced by brand power. In a study by marketing gurus David Aaker and Robert Jacobson, 34 companies examined between 1989 and 1992 and found that those with the largest increase in brand equity averaged stock returns of 30% while the ones losing the most brand equity dropped 10% on average. If you're not quite sold on the idea of customer satisfaction affecting stock prices, Forrester Research's annual Customer Experience Index ranks the best and worst in customer service. Companies in the top 10 routinely outperform the S&P 500. If the findings are altered slightly to consider operating profits, the results are even more pronounced. (For more, see Competitive Advantage Counts.)
Satisfaction Guaranteed
Investors tend to spend most of their time worrying about quantitative analysis. Ratios like price-to-earnings and price-to-book get all the attention while numberless intangibles like customer satisfaction are left to annual surveys that are quickly swept under the carpet, never to be seen again. Let's face it: we live in a quantitative world. Everything we do revolves around top 10 lists of one kind or another. We want a shortcut and lists meet this need. Qualitative analysis, on the other hand, is tricky stuff, and most Warren Buffett wannabes find it too subjective. However, any business whose stock price has risen consistently over time has surely satisfied all its stakeholders. As the Warren Buffett has been quoted as saying many times in the past: "Beware of geeks bearing formulas." (For more lessons from the mavens, check out our Greatest Investors Tutorial.)
by Will Ashworth (Contact Author | Biography)
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thaloengsak
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 9
The Financial Markets: When Fear And Greed Take Over
by Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com) (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Investing Basics, Warren Buffett
There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market is driven by just two emotions: fear and greed. Although this is an oversimplification, it can often be true. Succumbing to these emotions can have a profound and detrimental effect on investors' portfolios and the stock market.
In the investing world, one often hears about the juxtaposition between value investing and growth investing, and although understanding these two strategies is fundamental to building a personal investment strategy, it is as important to understand the influence of fear and greed on the financial markets. There are countless books and various courses devoted to this topic. Here our goal is to demonstrate what happens when an investor gets overwhelmed by one or both of these emotions.
Greed's Influence
So often, investors get caught up in greed (excessive desire). After all, most of us have a desire to acquire as much wealth as possible in the shortest amount of time.
The internet boom of the late 1990s is a perfect example. At the time it seemed all an advisor had to do was simply pitch any investment with a ".com" at the end of it, and investors leaped at the opportunity. Buying activity in internet-related stocks, many just start-ups, reached a fever pitch. Investors got greedy, fueling further greed and leading to securities being grossly overpriced, which created a bubble. It burst in mid-2000 and kept leading indexes depressed through 2001. (For more on the dotcom bubble and other market crashes, see Greatest Market Crashes).
This get-rich-quick mentality makes it hard to maintain gains and keep to a strict investment plan over the long term, especially amid such a frenzy, or as the former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, put it, the "irrational exuberance" of the overall market. It's times like these when it is crucial to maintain an even keel and stick to the basic fundamentals of investing, such as maintaining a long-term horizon, dollar-cost averaging and avoiding getting swept up in the latest craze.
A Lesson from "The Oracle of Omaha"
We would be remiss if we discussed the topic of not getting caught up in the latest craze without mentioning a very successful investor who stuck to his strategy and profited greatly. Warren Buffett showed us just how important and beneficial it is to stick to a plan in times like the dotcom boom. Buffett was once heavily criticized for refusing to invest in high-flying tech stocks. But once the tech bubble burst, his critics were silenced. Buffett stuck with his comfort zone: his long-term plan. By avoiding the dominant market emotion of the time - greed - he was able to avoid the losses felt by those hit by the bust. (Interested in what companies Warren Buffett is buying and selling? (Check out Coattail Investor, a subscription product tracking some of the best investors in the world.)
Fear's Influence
Just as the market can become overwhelmed with greed, the same can happen with fear ("an unpleasant, often strong emotion, of anticipation or awareness of danger"). When stocks suffer large losses for a sustained period, the overall market can become more fearful of sustaining further losses. But being too fearful can be just as costly as being too greedy.
Just as greed dominated the market during the dotcom boom, the same can be said of the prevalence of fear following its bust. In a bid to stem their losses, investors quickly moved out of the equity (stock) markets in search of less risky buys. Money poured into money market securities, stable value funds and principal-protected funds - all low-risk and low-return securities.
This mass exodus out of the stock market shows a complete disregard for a long-term investing plan based on fundamentals. Investors threw their plans out the window because they were scared, overrun by a fear of sustaining further losses. Granted, losing a large portion of your equity portfolio's worth is a tough pill to swallow, but even harder to digest is the thought that the new instruments that initially received the inflows have very little chance of ever rebuilding that wealth.
Just as scrapping your investment plan to hop on the latest get-rich-quick investment can tear a large hole in your portfolio, so too can getting swept up in the prevailing fear of the overall market by switching to low-risk, low-return investments.
The Importance of Comfort Level
All of this talk of fear and greed relates to the volatility inherent in the stock market. When investors lose their comfort level due to losses or market instability, they become vulnerable to these emotions, often resulting in very costly mistakes.
Avoid getting swept up in the dominant market sentiment of the day, which can be driven by a mentality of fear and/or greed, and stick to the basic fundamentals of investing. It is also important to choose a suitable asset allocation mix. For example, if you are an extremely risk averse person, you are likely to be more susceptible to being overrun by the fear dominating the market, and therefore your exposure to equity securities should not be as great as those who can tolerate more risk.
Buffett was once quoted as saying, "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."(For more on asset allocation, check out Asset Allocation Strategies and Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation.)
Easier Said than Done
Keep in mind this isn't as easy as it sounds. There's a fine line between controlling your emotions and being just plain stubborn. Remember also to re-evaluate your investment strategy and allow yourself to be flexible to a point, and remain rational when making decisions to change your plan of action.
Conclusion
You are the final decision-maker for your portfolio, and thus responsible for any gains or losses in your investments. Sticking to sound investment decisions while controlling your emotions, whether it be greed or fear, and not blindly following market sentiment is crucial to successful investing and maintaining your long-term strategy. But beware: never wavering from an investment strategy during times of high emotions in the market can also spell disaster. It's a balancing act that requires you to keep your wits about you.
by Investopedia Staff (Contact Author | Biography)
Investopedia.com believes that individuals can excel at managing their financial affairs. As such, we strive to provide free educational content and tools to empower individual investors, including thousands of original and objective articles and tutorials on a wide variety of financial topics.
Filed Under: Investing Basics, Warren Buffett
by Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com) (Contact Author | Biography)
Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsShareFiled Under: Investing Basics, Warren Buffett
There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market is driven by just two emotions: fear and greed. Although this is an oversimplification, it can often be true. Succumbing to these emotions can have a profound and detrimental effect on investors' portfolios and the stock market.
In the investing world, one often hears about the juxtaposition between value investing and growth investing, and although understanding these two strategies is fundamental to building a personal investment strategy, it is as important to understand the influence of fear and greed on the financial markets. There are countless books and various courses devoted to this topic. Here our goal is to demonstrate what happens when an investor gets overwhelmed by one or both of these emotions.
Greed's Influence
So often, investors get caught up in greed (excessive desire). After all, most of us have a desire to acquire as much wealth as possible in the shortest amount of time.
The internet boom of the late 1990s is a perfect example. At the time it seemed all an advisor had to do was simply pitch any investment with a ".com" at the end of it, and investors leaped at the opportunity. Buying activity in internet-related stocks, many just start-ups, reached a fever pitch. Investors got greedy, fueling further greed and leading to securities being grossly overpriced, which created a bubble. It burst in mid-2000 and kept leading indexes depressed through 2001. (For more on the dotcom bubble and other market crashes, see Greatest Market Crashes).
This get-rich-quick mentality makes it hard to maintain gains and keep to a strict investment plan over the long term, especially amid such a frenzy, or as the former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, put it, the "irrational exuberance" of the overall market. It's times like these when it is crucial to maintain an even keel and stick to the basic fundamentals of investing, such as maintaining a long-term horizon, dollar-cost averaging and avoiding getting swept up in the latest craze.
A Lesson from "The Oracle of Omaha"
We would be remiss if we discussed the topic of not getting caught up in the latest craze without mentioning a very successful investor who stuck to his strategy and profited greatly. Warren Buffett showed us just how important and beneficial it is to stick to a plan in times like the dotcom boom. Buffett was once heavily criticized for refusing to invest in high-flying tech stocks. But once the tech bubble burst, his critics were silenced. Buffett stuck with his comfort zone: his long-term plan. By avoiding the dominant market emotion of the time - greed - he was able to avoid the losses felt by those hit by the bust. (Interested in what companies Warren Buffett is buying and selling? (Check out Coattail Investor, a subscription product tracking some of the best investors in the world.)
Fear's Influence
Just as the market can become overwhelmed with greed, the same can happen with fear ("an unpleasant, often strong emotion, of anticipation or awareness of danger"). When stocks suffer large losses for a sustained period, the overall market can become more fearful of sustaining further losses. But being too fearful can be just as costly as being too greedy.
Just as greed dominated the market during the dotcom boom, the same can be said of the prevalence of fear following its bust. In a bid to stem their losses, investors quickly moved out of the equity (stock) markets in search of less risky buys. Money poured into money market securities, stable value funds and principal-protected funds - all low-risk and low-return securities.
This mass exodus out of the stock market shows a complete disregard for a long-term investing plan based on fundamentals. Investors threw their plans out the window because they were scared, overrun by a fear of sustaining further losses. Granted, losing a large portion of your equity portfolio's worth is a tough pill to swallow, but even harder to digest is the thought that the new instruments that initially received the inflows have very little chance of ever rebuilding that wealth.
Just as scrapping your investment plan to hop on the latest get-rich-quick investment can tear a large hole in your portfolio, so too can getting swept up in the prevailing fear of the overall market by switching to low-risk, low-return investments.
The Importance of Comfort Level
All of this talk of fear and greed relates to the volatility inherent in the stock market. When investors lose their comfort level due to losses or market instability, they become vulnerable to these emotions, often resulting in very costly mistakes.
Avoid getting swept up in the dominant market sentiment of the day, which can be driven by a mentality of fear and/or greed, and stick to the basic fundamentals of investing. It is also important to choose a suitable asset allocation mix. For example, if you are an extremely risk averse person, you are likely to be more susceptible to being overrun by the fear dominating the market, and therefore your exposure to equity securities should not be as great as those who can tolerate more risk.
Buffett was once quoted as saying, "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."(For more on asset allocation, check out Asset Allocation Strategies and Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation.)
Easier Said than Done
Keep in mind this isn't as easy as it sounds. There's a fine line between controlling your emotions and being just plain stubborn. Remember also to re-evaluate your investment strategy and allow yourself to be flexible to a point, and remain rational when making decisions to change your plan of action.
Conclusion
You are the final decision-maker for your portfolio, and thus responsible for any gains or losses in your investments. Sticking to sound investment decisions while controlling your emotions, whether it be greed or fear, and not blindly following market sentiment is crucial to successful investing and maintaining your long-term strategy. But beware: never wavering from an investment strategy during times of high emotions in the market can also spell disaster. It's a balancing act that requires you to keep your wits about you.
by Investopedia Staff (Contact Author | Biography)
Investopedia.com believes that individuals can excel at managing their financial affairs. As such, we strive to provide free educational content and tools to empower individual investors, including thousands of original and objective articles and tutorials on a wide variety of financial topics.
Filed Under: Investing Basics, Warren Buffett
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thaloengsak
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 10
เยอะมากจนผมขี้เดียจเอามาลง
ถ้ามีท่านใดเห็นtopicดีๆในนั้น ก็ช่วยๆกันมาลงหน่อยนะครับ
ถ้ามีท่านใดเห็นtopicดีๆในนั้น ก็ช่วยๆกันมาลงหน่อยนะครับ
ลงทุนเพื่อชีวิต
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วรันศ์ บัฟเฟต
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 11
Good stuff kub. Thanks. 
value trap
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ko_hisashi
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 13
[quote="VIB007"]หัวข้อแรกดีมาก ขอเอาไปลงคอลัมน์ Value Way นะครับ[/quote]
เป็นภาษาไทยไหมครับ ภาษาไม่แข็งแรงครับ.....
เป็นภาษาไทยไหมครับ ภาษาไม่แข็งแรงครับ.....
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thaloengsak
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 15
ถ้าอ.วิบูลย์จะเอาไปสรุปลงเป็นภาษาไทยก็จะดีมากเลยครับ
คนทั่วๆไปก็จะได้อ่านได้ครับ
คนทั่วๆไปก็จะได้อ่านได้ครับ
ลงทุนเพื่อชีวิต
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VIB007
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 17
ภาษาไทยครับ ลงในกรุงเทพธุรกิจ วันจันทร์thaloengsak เขียน:ถ้าอ.วิบูลย์จะเอาไปสรุปลงเป็นภาษาไทยก็จะดีมากเลยครับ
คนทั่วๆไปก็จะได้อ่านได้ครับ
อาจลงทั้งหมดเลย ขอดูก่อนนะครับ
ขอบคุณมากครับ
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thaloengsak
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 18
ขอบคุณอ.มากครับ
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pak
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Re: 10 Tips For The Successful Long-Term Investor
โพสต์ที่ 19
Stock Appraisal Guide (Investing Tools)
วิธีในการประเมินมูลค่าสิ่งที่จะลงทุนมีหลายกฎเกณฑ์ บางคนใช้เพียงแนวทางใดแนวทางหนึ่งในการเลือกวิธีลงทุน หากคุณเป็นหนึ่งในประเภทที่ซื้อแล้วหุ้นตก ขายแล้วหุ้นขึ้น แม้ว่าจะผ่านการวิเคราะห์ปัจจัยพื้นฐานหรือทางเทคนิคมาบ้าง เชื่อเพื่อนบ้าง เชื่อข่าวบ้าง แต่ผลตอบแทนที่ได้ต่ำกว่าค่าเฉลี่ย …อาจถึงเวลาแล้วที่คุณจะต้องปรับปรุงทักษะในการประเมินมูลค่าเสียใหม่
ผมรู้สึกหวิวๆที่ช่วงนี้เริ่มมีคนมาถามว่าลงทุนหุ้นตัวไหนดี โบราณว่าไว้หากผู้คนต่างก็เริ่มถามว่าซื้อหุ้นตัวไหนดี เค้าบอกว่าตลาดนั้นเริ่มเป็นช่วงขายทำกำไรมากกว่าซื้อ!!! อย่างไรก็ตามการให้รายชื่อหุ้นไปซื้อ ผมคิดว่าไม่ต่างอะไรกับการให้เงินนัก เพราะก็คงต้องกลับมาขออีกเรื่อยๆ แต่ถ้าเราให้แนวทางในการคัดเลือกหุ้น ผู้ขอน่าจะได้รับประโยชน์มากกว่า เพราะสามารถนำวิธีคิดไปปรับใช้ในคราวต่อๆไปได้ด้วย เอ่อ… อีกอย่างผมไม่เรียกตนเองว่านักลงทุน แต่เป็นบล็อกเกอร์ครับ
ต่อไปนี้คือ 26 Check List ที่คุณสามารถนำไปใช้ในการคัดเลือกหุ้น เพื่อส่งเข้าประกวดในตลาดทุนที่ไม่มีใครสามารถคาดเดาได้ถูกต้อง 100% และขอให้จำข้อความที่จะกล่าวต่อไปนี้
-- อย่างไรก็แล้วแต่ สังเกตข้อเท็จจริงอันมีความสำคัญยิ่งนี้ให้ดี ข้อเท็จจริงที่ว่าก็คือ นักลงทุนพันธุ์แท้แทบไม่เคยถูกบังคับให้ขายหุ้นเลยและสามารถจะละเลยราคาหุ้นในปัจจุบันได้ พวกเขาจำเป็นต้องใส่ใจต่อราคาหุ้นและลงมือทำอะไรบางอย่างก็ต่อเมื่อราคาหุ้นอยู่ในระดับสูงพอจนทำให้พวกเขาอยากจะขายหุ้นออกไปเท่านั้น ด้วยเหตุนี้ นักลงทุนผู้ปล่อยให้ตัวเองกังวลต่อการลดลงของมูลค่าหุ้นในพอร์ต จะเปลี่ยนข้อได้เปรียบของพวกเขาให้กลายเป็นข้อเสียเปรียบ นักลงทุนทั่วๆไปจะได้ประโยชน์มากกว่า หากหุ้นของพวกเขาไม่มีราคาตลาด เนื่องจากพวกเขาจะไม่ต้องรู้สึกกังวลกับวิจารณญาณที่ผิดพลาดของคนอื่นๆ – (จาก The Intelligent Investor)
13 คำถาม ก่อนคิดตัวเลข!!!
1 หุ้นในดวงใจของคุณถูกจัดอยู่ในกลุ่มไหนระหว่าง หุ้นโตไว หุ้นปันผล หุ้นสาธารณูปโภค หุ้นวัฏจักร หุ้นเก็งกำไร หุ้น Turnaround
: หุ้นโตไวหากผลประกอบการเป็นไปตามเป้าหมาย จะสามารถสร้างผลกำไรได้อย่างดีเยี่ยม แต่หากหุ้นกลุ่มนี้สร้างผลงานได้อย่างน่าผิดหวัง ราคาซื้อขายก็จะลงแรงกว่าหุ้นแบบอื่นๆ
: หุ้นที่ให้ปันผลสม่ำเสมอ ราคาซื้อขายจะมีความผันผวนน้อย ส่วนใหญ่ราคาก็มักอิงอยู่กับอัตราการจ่ายเงินปันผล คนที่ลงทุนในกลุ่มนี้จะต้องเข้าใจนิสัยของหุ้น การเก็งกำไรสั้นๆสามารถทำได้ก่อนการประกาศจ่ายเงินปันผล
: หุ้นสาธารณูปโภคมักไม่เป็นที่ต้องการของนักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้น เนื่องจากผลการประกอบการคาดเดาได้ไม่ยาก แต่อาจเป็นที่ชื่นชอบของนักลงทุนที่แบกรับความเสี่ยงได้น้อย และยังมีเงินปันผลที่น่าพอใจกว่าการฝากเงินในบัญชีออมทรัพย์
: หุ้นวัฏจักรถือเป็นกลุ่มที่สร้างเนื้อสร้างตัวของนักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้นนอกจากหุ้นโตไว แต่อาจไม่เหมาะกับนักลงทุนในระยะยาว (ที่ไม่ค่อยขายทำกำไร) คนที่มีความรู้พิเศษจึงเหมาะกับหุ้นประเภทนี้
: หุ้นเก็งกำไร คุณสามารถพบเห็นได้ทุกตลาดทุกสภาพ ความจริงหุ้นทุกตัวมีนักเก็งกำไรหมด แต่ก็อาจจะมีการปั่นหรือไล่ราคาจนเกินมูลค่าพื้นฐาน ความผิดพลาดส่วนใหญ่เกิดจากการเข้าไปเสี่ยงด้วยความคึกคะนอง
: หุ้น Turnaround เป็นความน่าตื่นเต้นของบรรดาผู้รอบรู้ นักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้นมักมีความเข้าใจศักยภาพในการทำกำไรของบริษัทเป็นอย่างดี แต่อาจมีเหตุการณ์พิเศษชั่วคราวที่ส่งผลกระทบต่อผลการประกอบการในรอบบัญชี หุ้นกลุ่มนี้อาจถูกจัดอยู่ในกลุ่มเดียวกันกับหุ้นวัฏจักรได้
2 คุณทราบหรือไม่ว่าไตรมาสแรกและไตรมาสสุดท้ายมักเป็นช่วงพีคของบริษัทจดทะเบียน
เพราะฉะนั้นช่วงโลว์จะเริ่มต้นจากไตรมาสที่สองหลายบริษัทมีผลการประกอบการที่ลดลงเมื่อเทียบกันไตรมาสต่อไตรมาส ราคาซื้อขายก็อาจปรับตัวลดลงเป็นปกติ ประกอบกับมีหลายบริษัทจ่ายเงินปันผลปีละครั้ง โดยมากจะจ่ายในช่วงเดือน มี.ค. และเดือน เม.ย. ดังนั้นในช่วงไตรมาสที่สองจึงไม่มีปัจจัยพิเศษที่ผลักดันราคาหุ้น บางจังหวะก็อาจพบว่าหุ้นมีการปรับฐานอย่างมากในช่วงนี้ หลายคนก็อาจจะอาศัยช่วงเวลาดังกล่าวในการเก็บหุ้นที่ราคาปรับลงแรงกว่าตลาด
3 ใครคือผู้บริหารของบริษัท ใครคือผู้ถือหุ้นรายใหญ่
ในแวดวงผู้บริหารย่อมเป็นที่ทราบดีกว่าใครมีความสามารถ ใครมีแนวโน้มบริหารบริษัทเพื่อผลประโยชน์ของตนเอง/ผู้ถือหุ้น ใครสามารถทำได้อย่างที่พูด นอกจากนี้อาจต้องพิจาณาจากรายชื่อผู้ถือหุ้นรายใหญ่ว่าเป็นใคร แล้วลองพิจารณาว่าเขามีความคิดเห็นอย่างไร คล้ายกันกับที่เราคิดหรือไม่ บางคนเป็นเซียนหุ้นที่คนทั่วไปรู้จัก ข้อเท็จจริงนี้ก็อาจทำให้บริษัทมีภาษีทางการลงทุนที่ดีกว่า
4 นโยบายการจ่ายเงินปันผลของบริษัทเป็นอย่างไร
มีหลายท่านประเมินมูลค่าหุ้น หรือตัดสินใจลงทุนด้วยการพิจารณาการจ่ายเงินปันผลในอดีต ว่ามีการจ่ายเงินปันผลสม่ำเสมอหรือไม่ บริษัทที่มีการจ่ายเงินปันผลสูงขึ้นโดยเฉลี่ยทุกๆปี ราคาหุ้นก็น่าจะปรับสูงขึ้นทุกๆปีเช่นเดียวกัน และมีความผันผวนของราคาน้อยกว่าบริษัทที่ไม่จ่ายเงินปันผล นอกจากนี้ยังอาจมองได้ว่าบริษัทมีการเจริญเติบโต สามารถสร้างกระแสเงินสดได้อย่างสม่ำเสมอ จึงมีการจ่ายเงินปันผลอย่างต่อเนื่อง
5 รายได้หลักของบริษัทมาจากไหน รายได้ส่วนใหญ่มาจากการนำเข้าหรือการส่งออก
: หากตรวจสอบจากงบการเงินเฉพาะกิจการ ก็จะทราบได้ว่าบริษัทสามารถสร้างรายได้จากธุรกิจหลักได้เป็นจำนวนมากน้อยแค่ไหน บางบริษัทมีรายได้พิเศษที่มิได้มาจากธุรกิจหลัก จุดนี้อาจเป็นข้อผิดพลาดของนักลงทุนที่ชอบใช้ EPS คูณกับจำนวนไตรมาสไปตรงๆ เพื่อคำนวณราคาพื้นฐาน
: ก่อนหน้านี้มีการลอยตัวค่าเงิน ธุรกิจที่ได้รับผลกระทบมากที่สุดก็คือธุรกิจที่ใช้สกุลเงินดอลล่าร์ โดยปกติก็คือธุรกิจนำเข้า ซึ่งจะต้องนำเงินบาทไปซื้อดอลล่าร์ กลับกันการที่เงินบาทอ่อนจะส่งผลดีกับธุรกิจส่งออก ทีนี้ลองเข้าไปศึกษาลักษณะการหารายได้ของบริษัท ว่ารายได้หลักมาจากการขายในประเทศหรือการส่งออก หากภาวะเศรษฐกิจและค่าเงินผันผวน ก็อาจส่งผลกระทบต่อการควบคุมต้นทุนของบริษัทได้ ผู้บริหารก็อาจนำเหตุผลนี้มาใช้อธิบายประกอบกรณีผลการประกอบการไม่เป็นไปตามเป้าหมาย
6 บริษัทมีหนี้สินมากเกินไปหรือไม่ ตัวเลขกำไร (ขาดทุน) สะสมเป็นอย่างไร
นักลงทุนทุกคนต้องการลงทุนในบริษัทที่สร้างผลกำไรได้ต่อเนื่องยาวนาน การมีกำไรสะสมมากๆ บริษัทก็อาจนำเงินส่วนนี้มาจ่ายเป็นเงินปันผลให้กับผู้ถือหุ้นได้ ซึ่งเป็นที่ชื่นชอบของนักลงทุนนักแล
7 ใครคือคู่แข่งของบริษัท บริษัทมีส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาดอย่างไร
: คู่แข่งของบริษัทคือใคร บางอุตสาหกรรมมีการแข่งขันกันทั้งส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาด ราคา และเทคโนโลยี ในบางครั้งเราก็จะพบว่าการแข่งขันนั้นดุเดือดจนอาจส่งผลกระทบต่อความอยู่รอดของบริษัท ซึ่งก็จะทำให้มีบริษัทเล็กๆไม่สามารถอยู่รอดในตลาดที่มีการแข่งขันสูงได้
: ตำราบางเล่มมักแนะนำให้นักลงทุนแบบอนุรักษ์นิยม เลือกลงทุนแต่เฉพาะบริษัทขนาดใหญ่เท่านั้น โดยปกติบริษัทขนาดใหญ่ก็มักจะมีส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาดเป็นอันดับหนึ่ง มีความได้เปรียบเรื่อง Economy of Scale ซึ่งจะทำให้มีอำนาจต่อรองมากกว่าบริษัทขนาดเล็ก ราคาหุ้นก็มักจะมีความเสถียรสูงกว่า
8 แนวโน้มทางด้านอุตสาหกรรมเป็นอย่างไร
มีการทำ Research แนวโน้มของอุตสาหกรรมมากมายให้อ่าน บางคนที่ทำธุรกิจก็อาจทราบดีว่าอุตสาหกรรมใดเป็นช่วงขาขึ้น โดยหากเราเลือกอุตสาหกรรมที่กำลังได้รับความนิยม การทำกำไรก็มีโอกาสที่จะไม่ต้องรอนาน นักลงทุนที่เน้นหุ้นวัฏจักรและหุ้น Turnaround สามารถที่จะใช้ประโยชน์จากข้อนี้ได้
9 สินค้าและบริการสามารถแข่งขันราคาได้เอง หรือถูกควบคุมราคา เป็นสินค้าจำเป็นหรือสามารถทดแทนได้ ยอดขายเป็นอย่างไร
ความจริงข้อนี้สำคัญไม่ยิ่งหย่อนไปกว่าข้ออื่นๆเลย เพียงแต่บางอย่างเราไม่รู้ บางอย่างคาดเดาได้ยากเช่น ยอดขาย ซึ่งมีผลโดยตรงต่อเป้าหมาย (รายได้) และสะท้อนออกมายังราคาหุ้น… โดยในระยะหลังๆมานี้ สินค้าและบริการบางอย่างหน่วยงานของรัฐเริ่มปล่อยให้มีการแข่งขันทางด้านราคาได้ มีการควบคุมน้อยลง และจะมีการแทรกแซงราคาบ้างในบางโอกาส แต่สำหรับสินค้าที่เป็นส่วนประกอบของต้นทุนในหลายๆอุตสาหกรรมที่ภาครัฐยังคงมีการควบคุม ช่องทางในการเพิ่มขนาดของรายได้ของบริษัท ก็ต้องพัฒนาไปเป็นรูปแบบอื่นๆ อย่างเช่นการแปรรูปสินค้า สร้างแบรนด์ของตนเอง ตลอดจนปรับปรุงบรรจุภัณฑ์หรือรูปแบบของหีบห่อให้ดูสวยงาม น่าใช้ เป็นต้น
10 หมายเหตุประกอบงบการเงินเป็นอย่างไร บริษัทมีความเสี่ยงทางกฎหมายหรือไม่
: ระเบิดเวลาทางบัญชีมักจะแฝงไว้ในงบการเงิน ผู้สอบบัญชีถือได้ว่ามีส่วนในการช่วยกรองและสรุปข้อมูลที่เป็นสาระสำคัญทางการเงินของบริษัท ความผิดปกติในงบการเงินที่ผู้สอบบัญชีไม่สามารถชี้แจงรายละเอียด หรือตั้งข้อสงสัยอาจเป็นความไม่ปกติและทำให้งบการเงินถูกมองในแง่ลบในสายตาของนักลงทุนได้
: นอกจากนี้แบบ 56-1 ยังมีส่วนของข้อพิพาททางกฎหมาย โดยผลกระทบอาจส่งผลให้บริษัทต้องตกเป็นจำเลยในศาลและจะต้องชดใช้ค่าเสียหาย หนักหน่อยก็อาจทำให้บริษัทตกเป็นนิติบุคคลที่ศาลมีคำสั่งให้ล้มละลายได้
11 อะไรคือความเสี่ยงของบริษัท
ปกติบริษัทจะมีการสรุปหัวข้อความเสี่ยงไว้ในแบบ 56-1 หากเรามีความเข้าใจความเสี่ยงของบริษัทที่เราลงทุนเป็นอย่างดี ในบางครั้งเมื่อเกิดลักษณะของ Panic Sale อย่างหนึ่งอย่างใดที่ไม่ส่งผลกระทบต่อความสามารถในการหารายได้ของบริษัท เราอาจเรียกการขายเหล่านี้ทำให้ “มีส่วนลด” หรือ Margin of Safety ซึ่งเป็นโอกาสสำหรับนักลงทุนอย่างแท้จริง
12 บริษัทมีเป้าหมายอย่างไรในอีก 5 ปีข้างหน้า
แม้แต่บริษัทก็ยังต้องมีเป้าหมาย ไม่ว่าจะเป็นเป้าหมายระยะสั้น กลาง หรือในระยะยาว ไม่ต่างไปจากคนเท่าไหร่นัก ลองเปรียบดูว่าหากคุณใช้ชีวิตเรื่อยเปื่อย ปล่อยให้โชคชะตาพาไป หาแก่นแท้ไม่ได้ เสน่ห์ต่อเพศตรงข้ามก็จะลดลง การมีเป้าหมายจะเป็นตัวกระตุ้นหนึ่งที่ทำให้บริษัทมีการขับเคลื่อนไปข้างหน้า ไม่ใช่ย่ำอยู่กับที่ เพราะธุรกิจที่หยุดอยู่กับที่โดยไม่มีการพัฒนาต่อยอด ในท้ายที่สุดก็จะไม่ได้รับความนิยม หรืออาจกลายเป็นธุรกิจธรรมดาๆทั่วไปที่ไม่ค่อยมีใครต้องการลงทุนด้วย
13 ทำไมคุณจึงชอบบริษัทนี้
เวลาคนจ่ายเงินซื้อ อย่างน้อยๆต้องมีเหตุผลที่จะซื้อ หากคุณไม่สามารถหาคำตอบได้ว่าทำไมคุณจึงชอบบริษัทนี้ คุณก็ไม่ควรจะเข้าไปยุ่งกับมันเสียจะดีกว่า
13 ข้อ ควรระวังก่อนตัดสินใจซื้อ!!!
1 คุณมีการเฉลี่ยตัวเลข EPS ย้อนหลังแล้วหรือไม่
มีหลายท่านนำเอา EPS ในปีที่บริษัทสามารถสร้างผลกำไรได้เหนือความคาดหมายไปคำนวณราคาหุ้น เขาก็จะได้ราคาหุ้นที่เหนือกว่ามาตรฐาน ซึ่งบางคนก็บอกว่าแพง และถ้ามันแพงจริงๆเมื่อพิจารณาจากปัจจัยต่างๆแล้วหละก็ โอกาสในการทำกำไรย่อมมีน้อยลงเป็นเรื่องธรรมดา จนอาจถึงขั้นขาดทุนเลยก็มี
2 คุณติดนิสัยไล่ซื้อหุ้นที่ราคาปรับขึ้นมาแล้วใช่หรือไม่
หากคุณเป็นพวกกลัวการตกรถ ข้อให้คุณท่องจำไว้ให้ขึ้นใจว่ายิ่งคุณไล่ราคาสูงขึ้นมากเท่าไร กำไรของคุณยิ่งน้อยลงมากขึ้นเท่านั้น มีความผิดหวังมากมายที่เกิดจากการไล่ซื้อเมื่อราคาพุ่งขึ้น อย่างไรก็ตามอาจเป็นข้อยกเว้นหากมูลค่าที่แท้จริงนั้นต่ำกว่าราคาตลาดมาก (เมื่อผ่านการพิจารณาโดยละเอียดถี่ถ้วนแล้ว)
3 บริษัทกำลังเพิ่มทุนอยู่หรือไม่
ยังมีนักลงทุนบางคนคิดว่าการแตกพาร์กับการเพิ่มทุนจะทำให้เขาร่ำรวยมากยิ่งขึ้น เหตุผลในการเพิ่มทุนอาจมีได้หลายเหตุผล ส่วนใหญ่เกิดจากการที่บริษัทตัดสินใจขยายกิจการเป็นหลัก ซึ่งอาจเป็นข้อดี แต่แน่นอนว่าในอนาคตจำนวนหุ้นจะต้องเพิ่มขึ้น เมื่อจำนวนหุ้นเพิ่มมากขึ้นก็จะทำให้ตัวหารมากขึ้นด้วย โดยปกติก็จะทำให้ราคาหุ้นลดลง อย่างไรก็ตามอาจมีกรณีที่บริษัทต้องการใช้เงินเร่งด่วน หรือขาดสภาพคล่อง และไม่ได้นำมาใช้เพื่อขยายกิจการ แต่นำมาใช้ในการชำระหนี้ ซึ่งเหตุผลอย่างหลังอาจส่งผลกระทบต่อความเชื่อมั่นของนักลงทุนได้
4 ผู้บริหารกำลังขายหุ้นอยู่หรือไม่
ในอุดมคติของนักลงทุน ผู้บริหารจะต้องบริหารบริษัทเพื่อให้มีผลการประกอบการที่ดี มีการเจริญเติบโตอย่างต่อเนื่อง อย่างไรก็ตามทุกวันนี้ยังมีผู้บริหารที่เป็นทั้งนักบริหารและนักเล่นหุ้น นักลงทุนสามารถตรวจสอบการซื้อขายหุ้น การให้สิทธิ Stock Option ของผู้บริหาร เพื่อให้แน่ใจว่าพวกเขาไม่ได้บริหารกิจการเพื่อตัวของเขาเอง และถ้าหุ้นของบริษัทดีจริง เหตุผลใดที่ผู้บริหารเหล่านั้นยังคงขายหุ้นออกอย่างต่อเนื่อง …นักลงทุนเองก็ควรจะต้องทำเช่นนั้นด้วยเหมือนกันมิใช่หรือ
5 เหตุใดจึงจะต้องซื้อที่ P/E เกิน 10 เท่า
เราจะพบว่าหุ้นโตไวและหุ้นวัฎจักรในหลายๆตัว นักลงทุนส่วนใหญ่ให้มูลค่ากันที่ P/E สูงๆ เพราะราคาในปัจจุบันถูกมองว่ายังถูกเมื่อเทียบกับความสามารถในการทำกำไรในอนาคต หุ้นที่ให้ปันผลสูงก็เช่นเดียวกัน แต่หากหุ้นที่คุณกำลังจะลงทุนไม่มีเรื่องราวของการเติบโต หรือมีแต่จะแย่ลง การซื้อขายที่ P/E สูงๆดูจะไม่สมเหตุสมผลนัก
6 ทำไม P/BV จึงต่ำ
หลายคนอาจแปลกใจว่าทำไมหุ้นบางตัวจึงมีการซื้อขายที่ต่ำกว่า Book Value มาก… เป็นที่เข้าใจว่าหากคุณซื้อหุ้นได้ที่ P/BV ต่ำกว่า 1 ก็เท่ากับว่าคุณลงทุนได้ถูกกว่าเจ้าของ แต่หุ้นบางตัวก็ถูกเรื้อรังมานาน ด้วยในหลายๆเหตุผลเช่น ธรรมาภิบาลของบริษัทไม่ดี ผู้บริหารทำไม่ได้อย่างที่พูด ผลการประกอบการของบริษัททรงตัวมาเป็นระยะเวลานาน ธุรกิจไม่มีเรื่องราวที่น่าสนใจหรือเป็นภาคธุรกิจเก่า เป็นหุ่นที่ไม่มีสภาพคล่อง ราคาที่ซื้อขายไม่มีการเคลื่อนไหว หรือเป็นบริษัทที่ไม่ค่อยจ่ายเงินปันผล หลายๆเหตุผลที่มารวมกันก็อาจทำให้หุ้นดังกล่าวไม่เป็นที่นิยมของนักลงทุน
7 สภาพเศรษฐกิจเป็นอย่างไร
นักลงทุนผู้มากประสบการณ์แนะนำว่าถ้าหุ้นมันถูกก็ซื้อเลย อย่างไรก็ตามหากได้พิจารณาถึงสภาพเศรษฐกิจ ก็จะสามารถทำให้เราทราบได้กว่ามีของถูกกว่านี้อีก สมัยปัจจุบันเทคโนโลยีการสื่อสารเจริญก้าวหน้าไปมาก บางช่วงบางจังหวะทำให้เกิดการเรียนรู้ว่าการนำสภาพเศรษฐกิจมาพิจารณาประกอบด้วย สามารถช่วยให้นักลงทุนกำหนดจังหวะการเข้าซื้อได้ด้วยต้นทุนที่ “ถูกกว่านี้อีก”
8 มีการเมืองเข้ามาเกี่ยวข้องหรือไม่
เป็นประสบการณ์เฉพาะของแต่ละประเทศ โดยเฉพาะประเทศไทยยังมีหุ้นอิงกับการเมืองอยู่ ปัญหาการคอรัปปั่นจึงเป็นสิ่งที่หาได้ไม่ยากสำหรับการเมืองไทย
9 หากหุ้นตก คุณยินดีที่จะลงทุนเพิ่มใช่ไหม
หากหุ้นตก ที่ปรึกษาของคุณแนะนำให้ “ขาย” อยู่ตลอด คุณก็ไม่ควรใช้ที่ปรึกษาผู้นั้น
10 มีประสบการณ์แย่ๆของนักลงทุนพูดเกี่ยวกับบริษัทหรือไม่
การตลาดแบบปากต่อปากยังถือว่าเป็นสิ่งที่มีประสิทธิภาพมากที่สุด ไม่แพ้ Feedback ที่สามารถหาได้จากเว็ปไซต์ทั่วๆไป
11 เป็นวัฏจักรขาขึ้นหรือขาลงของธุรกิจ
ขาขึ้น ลงทุนอย่างไรก็ได้ ขาลง ลงทุนมีแต่จะเจ๊งกับเจ๊ง
12 ROA, ROE ไม่ต่ำกว่า 10% ใช่ไหม
เกิน 10% ไว้ก่อนดูดีมีราศี
13 คุณทำงานในบริษัทที่คุณจะลงทุนหรือไม่
ป้องกัน Home Bias นั่นเอง
ก่อนตัดสินใจลงทุนทุกครั้ง ควรสร้างเป็น Watch List ขึ้นมากับหุ้นในอุตสาหกรรมเดียวกันตั้งแต่ 2 ตัวขึ้นไป การหาคำตอบจากคำถามทั้ง 26 ข้อ (หลายท่านอาจมีมากกว่านั้น) มีอยู่ในเว็ปไซต์ ข้อมูลวิเคราะห์ของโบรกเกอร์ จากการสอบถามผู้บริหาร จากการประชุมผู้ถือหุ้น จากฝ่าย IR Google Bloomberg และความรู้สึกของคุณเอง ฯลฯ ซึ่งต้องไม่ลืมว่าบรรดากูรูหุ้นทั้งหลายมักไม่ได้บอกสิ่งที่พวกเขาคิดไว้ทั้งหมด การตัดสินใจควรอยู่บนพื้นฐานจากประสบการณ์ของตนเองมากกว่าคำบอกเล่าของบุคคลที่สาม และหากทั้ง 26 ข้อมีมุมมองเชิงบวกทั้งหมด หุ้นตัวนั้นก็น่าจะเป็นที่ต้องการของนักลงทุนครับ…
Nobody plan to fail but they fail because they don’t plan.
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วิธีในการประเมินมูลค่าสิ่งที่จะลงทุนมีหลายกฎเกณฑ์ บางคนใช้เพียงแนวทางใดแนวทางหนึ่งในการเลือกวิธีลงทุน หากคุณเป็นหนึ่งในประเภทที่ซื้อแล้วหุ้นตก ขายแล้วหุ้นขึ้น แม้ว่าจะผ่านการวิเคราะห์ปัจจัยพื้นฐานหรือทางเทคนิคมาบ้าง เชื่อเพื่อนบ้าง เชื่อข่าวบ้าง แต่ผลตอบแทนที่ได้ต่ำกว่าค่าเฉลี่ย …อาจถึงเวลาแล้วที่คุณจะต้องปรับปรุงทักษะในการประเมินมูลค่าเสียใหม่
ผมรู้สึกหวิวๆที่ช่วงนี้เริ่มมีคนมาถามว่าลงทุนหุ้นตัวไหนดี โบราณว่าไว้หากผู้คนต่างก็เริ่มถามว่าซื้อหุ้นตัวไหนดี เค้าบอกว่าตลาดนั้นเริ่มเป็นช่วงขายทำกำไรมากกว่าซื้อ!!! อย่างไรก็ตามการให้รายชื่อหุ้นไปซื้อ ผมคิดว่าไม่ต่างอะไรกับการให้เงินนัก เพราะก็คงต้องกลับมาขออีกเรื่อยๆ แต่ถ้าเราให้แนวทางในการคัดเลือกหุ้น ผู้ขอน่าจะได้รับประโยชน์มากกว่า เพราะสามารถนำวิธีคิดไปปรับใช้ในคราวต่อๆไปได้ด้วย เอ่อ… อีกอย่างผมไม่เรียกตนเองว่านักลงทุน แต่เป็นบล็อกเกอร์ครับ
ต่อไปนี้คือ 26 Check List ที่คุณสามารถนำไปใช้ในการคัดเลือกหุ้น เพื่อส่งเข้าประกวดในตลาดทุนที่ไม่มีใครสามารถคาดเดาได้ถูกต้อง 100% และขอให้จำข้อความที่จะกล่าวต่อไปนี้
-- อย่างไรก็แล้วแต่ สังเกตข้อเท็จจริงอันมีความสำคัญยิ่งนี้ให้ดี ข้อเท็จจริงที่ว่าก็คือ นักลงทุนพันธุ์แท้แทบไม่เคยถูกบังคับให้ขายหุ้นเลยและสามารถจะละเลยราคาหุ้นในปัจจุบันได้ พวกเขาจำเป็นต้องใส่ใจต่อราคาหุ้นและลงมือทำอะไรบางอย่างก็ต่อเมื่อราคาหุ้นอยู่ในระดับสูงพอจนทำให้พวกเขาอยากจะขายหุ้นออกไปเท่านั้น ด้วยเหตุนี้ นักลงทุนผู้ปล่อยให้ตัวเองกังวลต่อการลดลงของมูลค่าหุ้นในพอร์ต จะเปลี่ยนข้อได้เปรียบของพวกเขาให้กลายเป็นข้อเสียเปรียบ นักลงทุนทั่วๆไปจะได้ประโยชน์มากกว่า หากหุ้นของพวกเขาไม่มีราคาตลาด เนื่องจากพวกเขาจะไม่ต้องรู้สึกกังวลกับวิจารณญาณที่ผิดพลาดของคนอื่นๆ – (จาก The Intelligent Investor)
13 คำถาม ก่อนคิดตัวเลข!!!
1 หุ้นในดวงใจของคุณถูกจัดอยู่ในกลุ่มไหนระหว่าง หุ้นโตไว หุ้นปันผล หุ้นสาธารณูปโภค หุ้นวัฏจักร หุ้นเก็งกำไร หุ้น Turnaround
: หุ้นโตไวหากผลประกอบการเป็นไปตามเป้าหมาย จะสามารถสร้างผลกำไรได้อย่างดีเยี่ยม แต่หากหุ้นกลุ่มนี้สร้างผลงานได้อย่างน่าผิดหวัง ราคาซื้อขายก็จะลงแรงกว่าหุ้นแบบอื่นๆ
: หุ้นที่ให้ปันผลสม่ำเสมอ ราคาซื้อขายจะมีความผันผวนน้อย ส่วนใหญ่ราคาก็มักอิงอยู่กับอัตราการจ่ายเงินปันผล คนที่ลงทุนในกลุ่มนี้จะต้องเข้าใจนิสัยของหุ้น การเก็งกำไรสั้นๆสามารถทำได้ก่อนการประกาศจ่ายเงินปันผล
: หุ้นสาธารณูปโภคมักไม่เป็นที่ต้องการของนักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้น เนื่องจากผลการประกอบการคาดเดาได้ไม่ยาก แต่อาจเป็นที่ชื่นชอบของนักลงทุนที่แบกรับความเสี่ยงได้น้อย และยังมีเงินปันผลที่น่าพอใจกว่าการฝากเงินในบัญชีออมทรัพย์
: หุ้นวัฏจักรถือเป็นกลุ่มที่สร้างเนื้อสร้างตัวของนักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้นนอกจากหุ้นโตไว แต่อาจไม่เหมาะกับนักลงทุนในระยะยาว (ที่ไม่ค่อยขายทำกำไร) คนที่มีความรู้พิเศษจึงเหมาะกับหุ้นประเภทนี้
: หุ้นเก็งกำไร คุณสามารถพบเห็นได้ทุกตลาดทุกสภาพ ความจริงหุ้นทุกตัวมีนักเก็งกำไรหมด แต่ก็อาจจะมีการปั่นหรือไล่ราคาจนเกินมูลค่าพื้นฐาน ความผิดพลาดส่วนใหญ่เกิดจากการเข้าไปเสี่ยงด้วยความคึกคะนอง
: หุ้น Turnaround เป็นความน่าตื่นเต้นของบรรดาผู้รอบรู้ นักลงทุนแบบมุ่งเน้นมักมีความเข้าใจศักยภาพในการทำกำไรของบริษัทเป็นอย่างดี แต่อาจมีเหตุการณ์พิเศษชั่วคราวที่ส่งผลกระทบต่อผลการประกอบการในรอบบัญชี หุ้นกลุ่มนี้อาจถูกจัดอยู่ในกลุ่มเดียวกันกับหุ้นวัฏจักรได้
2 คุณทราบหรือไม่ว่าไตรมาสแรกและไตรมาสสุดท้ายมักเป็นช่วงพีคของบริษัทจดทะเบียน
เพราะฉะนั้นช่วงโลว์จะเริ่มต้นจากไตรมาสที่สองหลายบริษัทมีผลการประกอบการที่ลดลงเมื่อเทียบกันไตรมาสต่อไตรมาส ราคาซื้อขายก็อาจปรับตัวลดลงเป็นปกติ ประกอบกับมีหลายบริษัทจ่ายเงินปันผลปีละครั้ง โดยมากจะจ่ายในช่วงเดือน มี.ค. และเดือน เม.ย. ดังนั้นในช่วงไตรมาสที่สองจึงไม่มีปัจจัยพิเศษที่ผลักดันราคาหุ้น บางจังหวะก็อาจพบว่าหุ้นมีการปรับฐานอย่างมากในช่วงนี้ หลายคนก็อาจจะอาศัยช่วงเวลาดังกล่าวในการเก็บหุ้นที่ราคาปรับลงแรงกว่าตลาด
3 ใครคือผู้บริหารของบริษัท ใครคือผู้ถือหุ้นรายใหญ่
ในแวดวงผู้บริหารย่อมเป็นที่ทราบดีกว่าใครมีความสามารถ ใครมีแนวโน้มบริหารบริษัทเพื่อผลประโยชน์ของตนเอง/ผู้ถือหุ้น ใครสามารถทำได้อย่างที่พูด นอกจากนี้อาจต้องพิจาณาจากรายชื่อผู้ถือหุ้นรายใหญ่ว่าเป็นใคร แล้วลองพิจารณาว่าเขามีความคิดเห็นอย่างไร คล้ายกันกับที่เราคิดหรือไม่ บางคนเป็นเซียนหุ้นที่คนทั่วไปรู้จัก ข้อเท็จจริงนี้ก็อาจทำให้บริษัทมีภาษีทางการลงทุนที่ดีกว่า
4 นโยบายการจ่ายเงินปันผลของบริษัทเป็นอย่างไร
มีหลายท่านประเมินมูลค่าหุ้น หรือตัดสินใจลงทุนด้วยการพิจารณาการจ่ายเงินปันผลในอดีต ว่ามีการจ่ายเงินปันผลสม่ำเสมอหรือไม่ บริษัทที่มีการจ่ายเงินปันผลสูงขึ้นโดยเฉลี่ยทุกๆปี ราคาหุ้นก็น่าจะปรับสูงขึ้นทุกๆปีเช่นเดียวกัน และมีความผันผวนของราคาน้อยกว่าบริษัทที่ไม่จ่ายเงินปันผล นอกจากนี้ยังอาจมองได้ว่าบริษัทมีการเจริญเติบโต สามารถสร้างกระแสเงินสดได้อย่างสม่ำเสมอ จึงมีการจ่ายเงินปันผลอย่างต่อเนื่อง
5 รายได้หลักของบริษัทมาจากไหน รายได้ส่วนใหญ่มาจากการนำเข้าหรือการส่งออก
: หากตรวจสอบจากงบการเงินเฉพาะกิจการ ก็จะทราบได้ว่าบริษัทสามารถสร้างรายได้จากธุรกิจหลักได้เป็นจำนวนมากน้อยแค่ไหน บางบริษัทมีรายได้พิเศษที่มิได้มาจากธุรกิจหลัก จุดนี้อาจเป็นข้อผิดพลาดของนักลงทุนที่ชอบใช้ EPS คูณกับจำนวนไตรมาสไปตรงๆ เพื่อคำนวณราคาพื้นฐาน
: ก่อนหน้านี้มีการลอยตัวค่าเงิน ธุรกิจที่ได้รับผลกระทบมากที่สุดก็คือธุรกิจที่ใช้สกุลเงินดอลล่าร์ โดยปกติก็คือธุรกิจนำเข้า ซึ่งจะต้องนำเงินบาทไปซื้อดอลล่าร์ กลับกันการที่เงินบาทอ่อนจะส่งผลดีกับธุรกิจส่งออก ทีนี้ลองเข้าไปศึกษาลักษณะการหารายได้ของบริษัท ว่ารายได้หลักมาจากการขายในประเทศหรือการส่งออก หากภาวะเศรษฐกิจและค่าเงินผันผวน ก็อาจส่งผลกระทบต่อการควบคุมต้นทุนของบริษัทได้ ผู้บริหารก็อาจนำเหตุผลนี้มาใช้อธิบายประกอบกรณีผลการประกอบการไม่เป็นไปตามเป้าหมาย
6 บริษัทมีหนี้สินมากเกินไปหรือไม่ ตัวเลขกำไร (ขาดทุน) สะสมเป็นอย่างไร
นักลงทุนทุกคนต้องการลงทุนในบริษัทที่สร้างผลกำไรได้ต่อเนื่องยาวนาน การมีกำไรสะสมมากๆ บริษัทก็อาจนำเงินส่วนนี้มาจ่ายเป็นเงินปันผลให้กับผู้ถือหุ้นได้ ซึ่งเป็นที่ชื่นชอบของนักลงทุนนักแล
7 ใครคือคู่แข่งของบริษัท บริษัทมีส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาดอย่างไร
: คู่แข่งของบริษัทคือใคร บางอุตสาหกรรมมีการแข่งขันกันทั้งส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาด ราคา และเทคโนโลยี ในบางครั้งเราก็จะพบว่าการแข่งขันนั้นดุเดือดจนอาจส่งผลกระทบต่อความอยู่รอดของบริษัท ซึ่งก็จะทำให้มีบริษัทเล็กๆไม่สามารถอยู่รอดในตลาดที่มีการแข่งขันสูงได้
: ตำราบางเล่มมักแนะนำให้นักลงทุนแบบอนุรักษ์นิยม เลือกลงทุนแต่เฉพาะบริษัทขนาดใหญ่เท่านั้น โดยปกติบริษัทขนาดใหญ่ก็มักจะมีส่วนแบ่งทางการตลาดเป็นอันดับหนึ่ง มีความได้เปรียบเรื่อง Economy of Scale ซึ่งจะทำให้มีอำนาจต่อรองมากกว่าบริษัทขนาดเล็ก ราคาหุ้นก็มักจะมีความเสถียรสูงกว่า
8 แนวโน้มทางด้านอุตสาหกรรมเป็นอย่างไร
มีการทำ Research แนวโน้มของอุตสาหกรรมมากมายให้อ่าน บางคนที่ทำธุรกิจก็อาจทราบดีว่าอุตสาหกรรมใดเป็นช่วงขาขึ้น โดยหากเราเลือกอุตสาหกรรมที่กำลังได้รับความนิยม การทำกำไรก็มีโอกาสที่จะไม่ต้องรอนาน นักลงทุนที่เน้นหุ้นวัฏจักรและหุ้น Turnaround สามารถที่จะใช้ประโยชน์จากข้อนี้ได้
9 สินค้าและบริการสามารถแข่งขันราคาได้เอง หรือถูกควบคุมราคา เป็นสินค้าจำเป็นหรือสามารถทดแทนได้ ยอดขายเป็นอย่างไร
ความจริงข้อนี้สำคัญไม่ยิ่งหย่อนไปกว่าข้ออื่นๆเลย เพียงแต่บางอย่างเราไม่รู้ บางอย่างคาดเดาได้ยากเช่น ยอดขาย ซึ่งมีผลโดยตรงต่อเป้าหมาย (รายได้) และสะท้อนออกมายังราคาหุ้น… โดยในระยะหลังๆมานี้ สินค้าและบริการบางอย่างหน่วยงานของรัฐเริ่มปล่อยให้มีการแข่งขันทางด้านราคาได้ มีการควบคุมน้อยลง และจะมีการแทรกแซงราคาบ้างในบางโอกาส แต่สำหรับสินค้าที่เป็นส่วนประกอบของต้นทุนในหลายๆอุตสาหกรรมที่ภาครัฐยังคงมีการควบคุม ช่องทางในการเพิ่มขนาดของรายได้ของบริษัท ก็ต้องพัฒนาไปเป็นรูปแบบอื่นๆ อย่างเช่นการแปรรูปสินค้า สร้างแบรนด์ของตนเอง ตลอดจนปรับปรุงบรรจุภัณฑ์หรือรูปแบบของหีบห่อให้ดูสวยงาม น่าใช้ เป็นต้น
10 หมายเหตุประกอบงบการเงินเป็นอย่างไร บริษัทมีความเสี่ยงทางกฎหมายหรือไม่
: ระเบิดเวลาทางบัญชีมักจะแฝงไว้ในงบการเงิน ผู้สอบบัญชีถือได้ว่ามีส่วนในการช่วยกรองและสรุปข้อมูลที่เป็นสาระสำคัญทางการเงินของบริษัท ความผิดปกติในงบการเงินที่ผู้สอบบัญชีไม่สามารถชี้แจงรายละเอียด หรือตั้งข้อสงสัยอาจเป็นความไม่ปกติและทำให้งบการเงินถูกมองในแง่ลบในสายตาของนักลงทุนได้
: นอกจากนี้แบบ 56-1 ยังมีส่วนของข้อพิพาททางกฎหมาย โดยผลกระทบอาจส่งผลให้บริษัทต้องตกเป็นจำเลยในศาลและจะต้องชดใช้ค่าเสียหาย หนักหน่อยก็อาจทำให้บริษัทตกเป็นนิติบุคคลที่ศาลมีคำสั่งให้ล้มละลายได้
11 อะไรคือความเสี่ยงของบริษัท
ปกติบริษัทจะมีการสรุปหัวข้อความเสี่ยงไว้ในแบบ 56-1 หากเรามีความเข้าใจความเสี่ยงของบริษัทที่เราลงทุนเป็นอย่างดี ในบางครั้งเมื่อเกิดลักษณะของ Panic Sale อย่างหนึ่งอย่างใดที่ไม่ส่งผลกระทบต่อความสามารถในการหารายได้ของบริษัท เราอาจเรียกการขายเหล่านี้ทำให้ “มีส่วนลด” หรือ Margin of Safety ซึ่งเป็นโอกาสสำหรับนักลงทุนอย่างแท้จริง
12 บริษัทมีเป้าหมายอย่างไรในอีก 5 ปีข้างหน้า
แม้แต่บริษัทก็ยังต้องมีเป้าหมาย ไม่ว่าจะเป็นเป้าหมายระยะสั้น กลาง หรือในระยะยาว ไม่ต่างไปจากคนเท่าไหร่นัก ลองเปรียบดูว่าหากคุณใช้ชีวิตเรื่อยเปื่อย ปล่อยให้โชคชะตาพาไป หาแก่นแท้ไม่ได้ เสน่ห์ต่อเพศตรงข้ามก็จะลดลง การมีเป้าหมายจะเป็นตัวกระตุ้นหนึ่งที่ทำให้บริษัทมีการขับเคลื่อนไปข้างหน้า ไม่ใช่ย่ำอยู่กับที่ เพราะธุรกิจที่หยุดอยู่กับที่โดยไม่มีการพัฒนาต่อยอด ในท้ายที่สุดก็จะไม่ได้รับความนิยม หรืออาจกลายเป็นธุรกิจธรรมดาๆทั่วไปที่ไม่ค่อยมีใครต้องการลงทุนด้วย
13 ทำไมคุณจึงชอบบริษัทนี้
เวลาคนจ่ายเงินซื้อ อย่างน้อยๆต้องมีเหตุผลที่จะซื้อ หากคุณไม่สามารถหาคำตอบได้ว่าทำไมคุณจึงชอบบริษัทนี้ คุณก็ไม่ควรจะเข้าไปยุ่งกับมันเสียจะดีกว่า
13 ข้อ ควรระวังก่อนตัดสินใจซื้อ!!!
1 คุณมีการเฉลี่ยตัวเลข EPS ย้อนหลังแล้วหรือไม่
มีหลายท่านนำเอา EPS ในปีที่บริษัทสามารถสร้างผลกำไรได้เหนือความคาดหมายไปคำนวณราคาหุ้น เขาก็จะได้ราคาหุ้นที่เหนือกว่ามาตรฐาน ซึ่งบางคนก็บอกว่าแพง และถ้ามันแพงจริงๆเมื่อพิจารณาจากปัจจัยต่างๆแล้วหละก็ โอกาสในการทำกำไรย่อมมีน้อยลงเป็นเรื่องธรรมดา จนอาจถึงขั้นขาดทุนเลยก็มี
2 คุณติดนิสัยไล่ซื้อหุ้นที่ราคาปรับขึ้นมาแล้วใช่หรือไม่
หากคุณเป็นพวกกลัวการตกรถ ข้อให้คุณท่องจำไว้ให้ขึ้นใจว่ายิ่งคุณไล่ราคาสูงขึ้นมากเท่าไร กำไรของคุณยิ่งน้อยลงมากขึ้นเท่านั้น มีความผิดหวังมากมายที่เกิดจากการไล่ซื้อเมื่อราคาพุ่งขึ้น อย่างไรก็ตามอาจเป็นข้อยกเว้นหากมูลค่าที่แท้จริงนั้นต่ำกว่าราคาตลาดมาก (เมื่อผ่านการพิจารณาโดยละเอียดถี่ถ้วนแล้ว)
3 บริษัทกำลังเพิ่มทุนอยู่หรือไม่
ยังมีนักลงทุนบางคนคิดว่าการแตกพาร์กับการเพิ่มทุนจะทำให้เขาร่ำรวยมากยิ่งขึ้น เหตุผลในการเพิ่มทุนอาจมีได้หลายเหตุผล ส่วนใหญ่เกิดจากการที่บริษัทตัดสินใจขยายกิจการเป็นหลัก ซึ่งอาจเป็นข้อดี แต่แน่นอนว่าในอนาคตจำนวนหุ้นจะต้องเพิ่มขึ้น เมื่อจำนวนหุ้นเพิ่มมากขึ้นก็จะทำให้ตัวหารมากขึ้นด้วย โดยปกติก็จะทำให้ราคาหุ้นลดลง อย่างไรก็ตามอาจมีกรณีที่บริษัทต้องการใช้เงินเร่งด่วน หรือขาดสภาพคล่อง และไม่ได้นำมาใช้เพื่อขยายกิจการ แต่นำมาใช้ในการชำระหนี้ ซึ่งเหตุผลอย่างหลังอาจส่งผลกระทบต่อความเชื่อมั่นของนักลงทุนได้
4 ผู้บริหารกำลังขายหุ้นอยู่หรือไม่
ในอุดมคติของนักลงทุน ผู้บริหารจะต้องบริหารบริษัทเพื่อให้มีผลการประกอบการที่ดี มีการเจริญเติบโตอย่างต่อเนื่อง อย่างไรก็ตามทุกวันนี้ยังมีผู้บริหารที่เป็นทั้งนักบริหารและนักเล่นหุ้น นักลงทุนสามารถตรวจสอบการซื้อขายหุ้น การให้สิทธิ Stock Option ของผู้บริหาร เพื่อให้แน่ใจว่าพวกเขาไม่ได้บริหารกิจการเพื่อตัวของเขาเอง และถ้าหุ้นของบริษัทดีจริง เหตุผลใดที่ผู้บริหารเหล่านั้นยังคงขายหุ้นออกอย่างต่อเนื่อง …นักลงทุนเองก็ควรจะต้องทำเช่นนั้นด้วยเหมือนกันมิใช่หรือ
5 เหตุใดจึงจะต้องซื้อที่ P/E เกิน 10 เท่า
เราจะพบว่าหุ้นโตไวและหุ้นวัฎจักรในหลายๆตัว นักลงทุนส่วนใหญ่ให้มูลค่ากันที่ P/E สูงๆ เพราะราคาในปัจจุบันถูกมองว่ายังถูกเมื่อเทียบกับความสามารถในการทำกำไรในอนาคต หุ้นที่ให้ปันผลสูงก็เช่นเดียวกัน แต่หากหุ้นที่คุณกำลังจะลงทุนไม่มีเรื่องราวของการเติบโต หรือมีแต่จะแย่ลง การซื้อขายที่ P/E สูงๆดูจะไม่สมเหตุสมผลนัก
6 ทำไม P/BV จึงต่ำ
หลายคนอาจแปลกใจว่าทำไมหุ้นบางตัวจึงมีการซื้อขายที่ต่ำกว่า Book Value มาก… เป็นที่เข้าใจว่าหากคุณซื้อหุ้นได้ที่ P/BV ต่ำกว่า 1 ก็เท่ากับว่าคุณลงทุนได้ถูกกว่าเจ้าของ แต่หุ้นบางตัวก็ถูกเรื้อรังมานาน ด้วยในหลายๆเหตุผลเช่น ธรรมาภิบาลของบริษัทไม่ดี ผู้บริหารทำไม่ได้อย่างที่พูด ผลการประกอบการของบริษัททรงตัวมาเป็นระยะเวลานาน ธุรกิจไม่มีเรื่องราวที่น่าสนใจหรือเป็นภาคธุรกิจเก่า เป็นหุ่นที่ไม่มีสภาพคล่อง ราคาที่ซื้อขายไม่มีการเคลื่อนไหว หรือเป็นบริษัทที่ไม่ค่อยจ่ายเงินปันผล หลายๆเหตุผลที่มารวมกันก็อาจทำให้หุ้นดังกล่าวไม่เป็นที่นิยมของนักลงทุน
7 สภาพเศรษฐกิจเป็นอย่างไร
นักลงทุนผู้มากประสบการณ์แนะนำว่าถ้าหุ้นมันถูกก็ซื้อเลย อย่างไรก็ตามหากได้พิจารณาถึงสภาพเศรษฐกิจ ก็จะสามารถทำให้เราทราบได้กว่ามีของถูกกว่านี้อีก สมัยปัจจุบันเทคโนโลยีการสื่อสารเจริญก้าวหน้าไปมาก บางช่วงบางจังหวะทำให้เกิดการเรียนรู้ว่าการนำสภาพเศรษฐกิจมาพิจารณาประกอบด้วย สามารถช่วยให้นักลงทุนกำหนดจังหวะการเข้าซื้อได้ด้วยต้นทุนที่ “ถูกกว่านี้อีก”
8 มีการเมืองเข้ามาเกี่ยวข้องหรือไม่
เป็นประสบการณ์เฉพาะของแต่ละประเทศ โดยเฉพาะประเทศไทยยังมีหุ้นอิงกับการเมืองอยู่ ปัญหาการคอรัปปั่นจึงเป็นสิ่งที่หาได้ไม่ยากสำหรับการเมืองไทย
9 หากหุ้นตก คุณยินดีที่จะลงทุนเพิ่มใช่ไหม
หากหุ้นตก ที่ปรึกษาของคุณแนะนำให้ “ขาย” อยู่ตลอด คุณก็ไม่ควรใช้ที่ปรึกษาผู้นั้น
10 มีประสบการณ์แย่ๆของนักลงทุนพูดเกี่ยวกับบริษัทหรือไม่
การตลาดแบบปากต่อปากยังถือว่าเป็นสิ่งที่มีประสิทธิภาพมากที่สุด ไม่แพ้ Feedback ที่สามารถหาได้จากเว็ปไซต์ทั่วๆไป
11 เป็นวัฏจักรขาขึ้นหรือขาลงของธุรกิจ
ขาขึ้น ลงทุนอย่างไรก็ได้ ขาลง ลงทุนมีแต่จะเจ๊งกับเจ๊ง
12 ROA, ROE ไม่ต่ำกว่า 10% ใช่ไหม
เกิน 10% ไว้ก่อนดูดีมีราศี
13 คุณทำงานในบริษัทที่คุณจะลงทุนหรือไม่
ป้องกัน Home Bias นั่นเอง
ก่อนตัดสินใจลงทุนทุกครั้ง ควรสร้างเป็น Watch List ขึ้นมากับหุ้นในอุตสาหกรรมเดียวกันตั้งแต่ 2 ตัวขึ้นไป การหาคำตอบจากคำถามทั้ง 26 ข้อ (หลายท่านอาจมีมากกว่านั้น) มีอยู่ในเว็ปไซต์ ข้อมูลวิเคราะห์ของโบรกเกอร์ จากการสอบถามผู้บริหาร จากการประชุมผู้ถือหุ้น จากฝ่าย IR Google Bloomberg และความรู้สึกของคุณเอง ฯลฯ ซึ่งต้องไม่ลืมว่าบรรดากูรูหุ้นทั้งหลายมักไม่ได้บอกสิ่งที่พวกเขาคิดไว้ทั้งหมด การตัดสินใจควรอยู่บนพื้นฐานจากประสบการณ์ของตนเองมากกว่าคำบอกเล่าของบุคคลที่สาม และหากทั้ง 26 ข้อมีมุมมองเชิงบวกทั้งหมด หุ้นตัวนั้นก็น่าจะเป็นที่ต้องการของนักลงทุนครับ…
Nobody plan to fail but they fail because they don’t plan.
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