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Thailands Economy Probably Shrank for First Time in 10 Years
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By Daniel Ten Kate and Suttinee Yuvejwattana

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Thailands economy probably shrank for the first time in almost ten years last quarter as exports plummeted and political protests hurt tourism.

Southeast Asias second-biggest economy contracted 2.8 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Gross domestic product last declined in the first quarter of 1999. The report is due on Feb. 23 at 9:30 a.m. in Bangkok.

Thailand may join neighbors Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan in recession as demand for the regions goods dries up amid the deepening global slump. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, facing opposition protests, said this week the $246 billion economy could contract in the nine months through June even as the government increases spending to support growth.

Thailand has not been immune to the collapse in global export demand that has been hammering economies across the region, said David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. A recovery in the second half is still hardly guaranteed.

Overseas shipments by companies such as Delta Electronics (Thailand) Pcl and the local unit of Toyota Motor Corp., which amount to 70 percent of GDP, fell 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the central bank. Exports plunged the most in at least 17 years last month, a report yesterday showed.

The closure of the main international airport in Bangkok late last year by protesters seeking to oust the previous government also disrupted trade and contributed to a 19.4 percent decline in tourist arrivals in the fourth quarter.

Cash Handouts

Abhisits two-month-old government, which has the support of the group behind the eight-day seizure of Bangkoks two airports, will next month start to pump money into the economy via training programs, cash handouts, property tax breaks and public works to stimulate local demand.

The U.S. economy, Thailands biggest single overseas market, last quarter shrank the most since 1982 and Federal Reserve policy makers expect a contraction this year.

If the U.S. has yet to recover, how can Thailand recover? said Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, Chief Executive Officer of Asia Plus Securities Pcl in Bangkok. We are with them. When they are sick, we are also sick.

Thailands economy contracted about 3 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, Abhisit said Feb. 16. The economy may also shrink in the first and second quarters of 2009 before rebounding in the second half of this year, he said.

Job Losses

As many as 30,000 workers in the nations automotive industry may lose their jobs this year, said Ninnart Chaithirapinyao, vice chairman of Toyota Motor Thailand Co. Toyota Thailand has dropped more than 1,000 temporary workers since late last year as sales declined.

Auto companies will need to cut stock and overtime, Ninnart said on Feb. 16. It may take one to two years before we return to normal.

In the tourism industry, as many as 80,000 workers may lose their jobs, excluding those in hotels, Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said Feb. 16. The government should provide low-interest-rate loans and other measures to prevent lay-offs, he said.

Abhisit, facing protests planned this month by supporters of the main opposition party Puea Thai who want him to call an early election, has unveiled a 116.7 billion-baht ($3.3 billion) budget of short-term measures and plans to spend 2 trillion baht on mainly infrastructure projects over three to four years to boost investment and create jobs.

The Bank of Thailand has said it may continue easing monetary policy at its next meeting on Feb. 25 after cutting its benchmark interest rate to 2 percent in two reductions since early December.

The upcoming crisis is unemployment, Deputy Prime Minister Korbsak Sabhavanu said on Feb. 16. The only man who can do the rescue now is the government.



Thailand GDP Forecasts
===============================================================
                               GDP    GDP    GDP
                           QoQ% sa   YoY%   YoY%    GDP    GDP
Firm                             4Q     4Q     1Q   2008   2009
===============================================================
Median                        -4.7%  -2.8%  -3.0%   3.0%   0.3%
Average                       -4.5%  -1.9%  -2.7%   3.2%  -0.1%
High                          -3.0%   2.8%   2.5%   4.5%   3.0%
Low                           -5.8%  -3.2%  -5.2%   2.9%  -2.4%
Number of Estimates              10     17     13     15     15
===============================================================
Action Economics              -3.0%  -0.5%  -3.5%   3.5%  -0.5%
ATR-Kim Eng Capital              --   2.8%   2.5%   4.5%   3.0%
Capital Nomura Securities     -3.7%  -2.8%  -1.2%   3.0%   1.0%
CIMB Securities                  --  -0.7%  -3.6%   3.6%   0.5%
DBS Group                     -3.0%  -0.5%  -2.4%   3.6%  -1.7%
Forecast Singapore            -5.5%  -3.1%  -4.2%   2.9%  -1.8%
Ideaglobal                    -5.0%  -2.1%     --   3.3%   1.0%
ING Groep NV                  -4.4%  -2.0%     --     --     --
JP Morgan Chase               -5.4%  -3.0%  -5.2%   2.9%  -2.3%
Kasikorn Research             -5.8%  -3.2%  -3.6%   2.9%   0.5%
KTB Securities                   --  -3.1%  -2.5%   3.0%   1.3%
Macquarie Capital Securities     --  -2.5%  -2.0%   3.2%   0.3%
Moodys Economy.com           -5.4%  -3.0%     --   2.9%  -2.4%
Phatra Securities             -4.0%  -3.1%  -4.5%   2.9%  -0.7%
Reuters IFR                      --   1.0%     --     --     --
SCB Securities                   --  -3.0%  -1.5%   2.9%   0.9%
Tisco Securities                 --  -2.8%  -3.0%   3.0%  -0.8%
===============================================================
To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Phnom Penh at [email protected] Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at [email protected];