Thai Value Investor การลงทุนแบบเน้นคุณค่า ลงทุน VI หุ้นวีไอ Webboard

ถามความเห็นหน่อยครับ กำลังคิดจะซื้อบ้านริมแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยา
ส่วนตัวเป็นคนชอบบ้านริมน้ำ
ระยะยาว 10-15 ปี น้ำมันจะท่วมเมืองกรุงเทพฯ หรือเปล่า
บ้านริมน้ำจะราคาตกไหมครับ?

8) บ้านริมแม่น้ำ กะ ทะเล เนี่ยมันฝันชัดๆ
    มันไม่ใช่ถูกๆนะครับ
    อิจฉาจัง

น้ำท่วมแน่นอนครับ ไม่งั้นมันจะเรียกว่าริมน้ำหรือครับ
ถ้าไม่ท่วมแล้วอยู่ริมน้ำนี่เรียกว่าบ้านริมผา  :!:

ราคาตกหรือไม่อันนี้ ดูสภาพน้ำเป็นสำคัญ
ถ้าน้ำมีคุณภาพแย่ลง(เน่า) ราคาที่จะตก
แต่ถ้าน้ำใสขึ้น ราคาที่จะสูงขึ้นด้วยครับ

รองลงมาดูพื้นที่
โดยมากจะมีที่ที่น้ำเว้าเข้า อันนี้ไม่ดี ที่ดินจะหายไปทุกปี
ต้องซื้อที่ที่มีแผ่นดินยื่นไปในน้ำ ที่ดินจะเพิ่มทุกปี

To Buy or Not to Buy That Big House?


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The recent changes in property rules have gotten many Singaporeans talking about buying a new property. As many of the new changes make it easier to buy private property, the focus of many a discussion might be to buy one now. However, before doing so, you should be mindful of the potential considerations in taking on too large a loan, or buying too big a house in the eagerness to take advantage of the new property changes.

Firstly, what are these property changes everyone is talking about? Under the new regulations, the main change is that property buyers will now be able to borrow up to 90% of the value of the property instead of the current maximum 80%.

This instantly makes private property much more affordable than before. The main reason for this is that the down payment for the house is often the biggest factor causing home buyers to take pause. If for example, a home buyer is considering a $700,000 condominium, the 20% down payment for that would be $140,000. With the changes, the down payment would be just $70,000 instead and with just half of that requiring cash, this makes such a property now much more affordable.

However, just because you can afford to buy a big condominium, does that mean you should?

Many would reply that if they could afford it, they would certainly go for a more expensive condominium. It is the desire by most to own as big, and as expensive a house as they can afford. However, is that always the best course of action? Think of the sacrifices that have to be made to achieve the above. If you went out and bought the biggest house you could afford, it would in all likelihood take away whatever you have saved up to that point, wipe out most of your CPF and worse still, take away a significant portion of your future income. This means that there will be less of it available to save in future and you will also have to start building up your investments from scratch again. All that for a roof over your head?

In the pursuit of a bigger house, there is a danger that you might lose it by spending more than you can afford. Lets take two examples, John and Hector, both of whom are buying a house. Both have $50,000 in cash savings. John buys the biggest house he can have, a condominium costing $700,000. Assuming he took the 90% housing loan, and then also spent a further $50,000 on renovations, John is now swimming in a sea of debt worth $680,000 which costs him around $3,650 a month in loan payments! (Assuming that the average of his credit card bills, personal loans and his housing loan rate will average 5% over 30 years).

Hector, on the other hand, buys a 5-room resale flat costing $350,000. Assuming he also opts for the 90% housing loan, he takes on a loan of just $315,000 for the flat and he spends $10,000 on renovations (paid for in cash). His monthly loan payments are now just $1,700 given a housing loan rate of 5% over the long term of 30 years (we keep this rate similar to Johns for comparison). He does not deplete his entire savings and still has $22,500 left after paying for the deposit of 5% and the renovation. He then invests all the $22,500 and is further able to add to his investments given that his housing instalments are relatively low.

Let us assume they both have a gross income of $7,000 per month (including the amount that their employer contributes to their CPF). John has to cough up $3,650 per month in loan payments leaving him just $3,350 for monthly living expenses. He finds it difficult to lead the lifestyle that he wished for and he is stuck in his job as he cant afford to lose it. Worse, what if he gets retrenched 10 years later and he cant find a similar job? Without any savings to pay for the instalments, the bank takes back his house to cover the mortgage! In the end, he might actually lose the house that he paid and suffered so much for.

Hector, without the burden of a huge loan, has been able to put aside $500 per month (his monthly instalment payments of $1,700 is $1,950 lower than Johns). He also did not wipe out his savings the way John did. He was smart about investing and put the money into a diversified investment portfolio of funds which over time have grown by an average 7% per year. (This is not a high rate of return that is unrealistic to achieve. The MSCI world index, a global stock index made up of stocks spread all over the world managed a return of close to 10% per annum when held over 20 years). After 10 years, the same unfortunate thing that happens to John happens to him as well! However, Hectors investment portfolio has now grown from $22,500 to $127,000 within that 10 years. So, he could certainly manage the instalment payments until such time he finds another job. Furthermore, even with saving and investing $500 per month, and $1,700 monthly housing loan payments, Hector can spend up to $4,800 per month on his living expenses. He thus has a much better quality of life than John. He spoils his wife, indulges himself at times, and has enough money to spare when a baby comes along. Also, he is not constrained by a lousy job because he is not strapped for money the way John is. He can afford to move to a lower paying job with more satisfaction, because he is not as financially burdened.

Not all is gloomy for John for buying a big expensive house though. What if the property cycle turns favourable and goes into an uptrend over the next 10 years? If property prices rise on average 7% per year in the next 10 years, then John would now be sitting on a property worth $1.37 million. In comparison, Hectors property, being cheaper on the onset, will be worth $688,000 by then. John can now instantly buy a similar unit to Hectors for $688,000 and pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars immediately. Of course, this assumes two very important things. Firstly, that the property cycle does turn very favourable in the next 10 years, and secondly, that John is willing to downgrade to a cheaper home by then.

Is there any risk? After witnessing the drop in housing prices since 1997, I dont think anyone can claim that housing prices can only go up. The risk that they can drop is very real. Property prices do go through ups and downs because the property sector is a cyclical one. What about returns? This question is a harder to answer and I do not have a crystal ball of what Singapores property market would be like in the future. Nevertheless, I believe there are other investments like unit trusts or stocks that can yield returns just as property can. And these investments are available at much lower prices and with less hassle. In terms of quality of life, it is undeniable that you can enjoy a materially better life choosing a path Hector took since you will not saddled with high loan payments as John was.

In short, most people want to buy a house at some point in our lives. The current property changes may make some of the homebuyers tempted to buy as big a private property as they can. However, this comes with certain risks and sacrifices of quality of life due to the higher monthly loan burdens the homebuyer is saddled with. These are considerations that need to be kept in mind while the lure of buying a big expensive property for the next property boom calls again.

8) บทความที่คุณ LOSO เอามาให้อ่านดีจัง(แม้ว่าคำ if มันจะเยอะไปหน่อย)
    ถ้าเป็นผมๆ จะทำอย่าง hector
    ตอนนี้ผมนั่งอ่านเข็มทิศชีวิต ของคุณฐิตินาถ ณ พัทลุงอยู่ยังไม่จบ
    แต่เอามาฝากท่านๆทั้งหลายมั่ง
    (ไม่ได้ขออนุญาต นา)
    The trouble with using experience as a teacher is that
    the final exam often comes first and the lesson second.

ผมว่าบ้านขึ้นอยู่กับความ por_jai ของแต่ละคนนะ

ผมเป็น LOSO ขออยู่ริมถนนก็แล้วกันครับ

เอาไว้มี Mon..Money มากๆ ค่อยหาบ้านสวยๆไว้พักคลายเครียด

อยู่ใกล้น้ำก็ดีครับ หาเรือสักลำมาหัดคัดท้าย ก็สนุกดีเหมือนกัน

เอาไว้มี Mon..Money มากๆ ค่อยหาบ้านสวยๆไว้พักคลายเครียด

พี่มนหรือครับ  :mrgreen:

jaychou เขียน: ผมว่าบ้านขึ้นอยู่กับความ por_jai ของแต่ละคนนะ

ผมเป็น LOSO ขออยู่ริมถนนก็แล้วกันครับ

เอาไว้มี Mon..Money มากๆ ค่อยหาบ้านสวยๆไว้พักคลายเครียด

อยู่ใกล้น้ำก็ดีครับ หาเรือสักลำมาหัดคัดท้าย ก็สนุกดีเหมือนกัน

8) แล้วในบ้านก็ไปซื้อดีวีดี ดริฟติ้ง ซิ่งสายฟ้าที่มี jaychouแสดงมาดู..

ผมว่าบ้านขึ้นอยู่กับความ por_jai ของแต่ละคนนะ

ผมเป็น LOSO ขออยู่ริมถนนก็แล้วกันครับ

เอาไว้มี Mon..Money มากๆ ค่อยหาบ้านสวยๆไว้พักคลายเครียด

อยู่ใกล้น้ำก็ดีครับ หาเรือสักลำมาหัดคัดท้าย ก็สนุกดีเหมือนกัน


แล้วในบ้านก็ไปซื้อดีวีดี ดริฟติ้ง ซิ่งสายฟ้าที่มี jaychouแสดงมาดู..

ถ้าจะให้บ้านดูดี คลาสสิก อย่าลืมหาภาพวาดของ Monet มาติดผนังด้วยนะครับ
(  อยากมีส่วนร่วมน่ะครับ  :B )

ขอห้องใต้หลังคา แต่ในภาพยนตร์ ดันเป็นห้องใต้บันใด ไว้ให้ผมด้วยนะ 555

แล้วอย่าลืมหา CD พลพล คนกันเอง มาฟังแก้เหงานะครับ 555 .....................

8) go so big
    ไปกันใหญ่แล้ว
    ต้องโทษคุณเจย์...จุดพลุก่อน
    แต่ก็มันดีอ่ะ...