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คัดและรวบรวม มาให้อ่าน จาก CNN Money ครับ

Green shoots

Is the economy looking up,
or at least bottoming out?
Lately there has been much talk
about "glimmers of hope," in President Obama's words,
and "green shoots," a phrase du jour used by the likes of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Meanwhile, many economists have warned
about a false spring, pointing to numbers
that are still getting worse,
like the unemployment rate.
Fortune takes a closer look at the upbeat news
to assess whether how strong a case they
make for an imminent recovery.

By Beth Kowitt, reporter

1. Housing starts

The government reported that
the overall number of housing starts fell in March,
but those for single-family homes during the month
came in unchanged from the February figure of 358,000.

IHS Global Insight noted that
this suggests single-family home construction
may be stabilizing and is "testing the bottom."

2.The stock market

The S&P 500 was up 9.4% in April,
its biggest monthly rally since March 2000.
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
ended the month at 8,962.96, up 849.85, or 10.48%.
This is the best monthly return since December 1991,
when the index was up 10.72%.

"The initiatives of the federal government
and some of the improvements in the credit
markets are making investors more confident,"
said Thomas Cowhey, chief investment strategist
at Hirtle Callaghan.

3.Consumer confidence

Preliminary figures for the Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence Index showed a jump of more than 12 points
during April, to 39.2. The reading, which measures
consumer views on the economy, beat analyst
expectations and was the highest so far in 2009.

Lynn Franco, director of the organization's research center,
attributed the rise in confidence to "significant
improvement in the short-term outlook.

4.Single-family home prices

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that
while 20-city and 10-city Composite Home Price figures
declined through February 2009 (down 18.6% and 18.8%,
respectively, from a year ago), for the first time in 16
months the annual decline did not set a new record.

While it signals that the market may be showing some
stabilization, or at least what Chairman of the Index
Committee David Blitzer called "deceleration in the rate of
decline," Blitzer warned that we "need a few more months
of data before we can determine if home prices are finally
turning around."

Meanwhile, the Pending Home Sales Index rose for the
second straight month in March and was up more than 1%
over the year-ago figure. The index from the National
Association of Realtors (NAR) increased 3.2% during the
month, to 84.6%.

5.Earnings

The collapse in profits may be nearly played out. As of the
last day in April, the 341 S&P 500 companies that had
reported earnings for the first quarter were on average
about 2% below estimates, according to Howard
Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's.
Silverblatt says the results are overall "not good but
definitely not bad" and show that "deterioration
has slowed down."

Financial companies reported surprisingly strong numbers.
But we can't count on an earnings turnaround for many
months, says Silverblatt, who won't consider the numbers
to show definitive proof of improvement until fourth-
quarter results are in.

6.Jobless benefit claims

While unemployment figures are expected to rise still
further, there was a signs of hope in the Unemployment
Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending April
25. The Department of Labor reported that seasonally
adjusted initial claims for unemployment aid fell by 14,000
to 631,000.

"The past few weeks' claims data are beginning to look
increasingly like a peak," wrote Ian Shepherdson of High
Frequency Economics.

7.New orders and exports

Orders are starting to pick up. While reports from the
Institute for Supply Management showed that the
manufacturing sector failed to grow for the 15th straight
month in April, its New Orders Index increased six
percentage points to 47.2%, the highest level since
August. The New Exports Orders Index increased 5
percentage points, to 44%.

"While this is a big step forward, there is still a large gap
that must be closed before manufacturing begins to grow
once again," said Norbert Ore, chair of the institute's
survey committee, in a statement. "This is definitely a good
start for the second quarter."


8.Credit markets

Banks are starting to trust one another again. In May, the
three-month London interbank offered rate (Libor), a
benchmark for interbank loans, fell below 1% for the first
time on record. That was down from 1.16% a month ago
and 2.51% six months prior.

John Ewan, director of the British Bankers' Association,
which sets the rate, told Fortune in an email that "the
continued easing of the rates demonstrates that liquidity
and confidence are returning to the wholesale markets."

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