งานเข้าไม๊เนี่ย : เศรษฐกิจ US Q2 โต 1%
โพสต์แล้ว: ศุกร์ ส.ค. 26, 2011 8:25 pm
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The U.S. economy grew less than previously estimated in the second quarter, capping the weakest six months of the recovery that began in mid 2009.
Gross domestic product climbed at a 1 percent annual rate from April through June, down from a 1.3 percent prior estimate, revised Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.1 percent increase. The reduction reflected a smaller increase in inventories and fewer exports.
Slowing job growth and plunging confidence exacerbated by political gridlock and financial-market turmoil this month threaten to weigh on consumer and business spending for the rest of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking today at a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, may hint at what tools policy makers can still use to spur growth.
“Consumers don’t look like they’re in much of a mood to buy,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics in New York. “The economy continues weaker than we thought. It looks like it’s losing momentum and trade reflects the weaker economic circumstances abroad.”
Stock-index futures extended earlier losses after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing next month fell 0.6 percent to 1,150.4 at 8:46 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose, sending the yield on the benchmark 10- year note down to 2.19 percent from 2.23 percent late yesterday.
Survey Results
Forecasts of 81 economists in the GDP survey ranged from 0.3 percent to 1.6 percent. At $13.26 trillion in the second quarter, GDP has yet to surpass the pre-recession peak. The world’s largest economy grew at a 0.4 percent rate in the first three months of the year.
The report also contained some positive news as corporate profits grew and wages and salaries were revised up at the start of the year to show the biggest gain in more than four years.
Consumer spending, about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 0.4 percent annual rate, the smallest gain in more than a year. Nonetheless, the reading was revised up from the 0.1 percent previously estimated, reflecting more outlays on financial services, insurance and health care.
Today’s report follows recent cuts in forecasts by economists as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 18 percent between April 29 and Aug. 8, following S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt amid wrangling over deficit-cutting measures and on rising concerns of a euro zone default.
Cutting Forecasts
IHS Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts-based research firm, this week raised the odds of a recession in the U.S. to around 40 percent from a prior 20 percent to 25 percent probability. It cut its growth forecast for 2011 to 1.6 percent from a prior 2.5 percent, adding that a “double-dip downturn is still not the most likely scenario.”
“It appears that the U.S. economy is losing further momentum,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said Aug. 19. While several indicators for July were “surprisingly strong,” economist Zach Pandl wrote that “timelier survey-based data have turned down sharply, and weakness in the hard statistics seems likely to follow.”
Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecast to 1 percent in the third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, both from prior 2 percent estimates. Goldman Sachs on Aug. 5 said it saw a one-in- three chance of a renewed recession in the U.S.
Higher expenses for necessities like food and energy may have curtailed spending on less essential items in the second quarter. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed in May to about $4 a gallon, the highest in almost three years, according to AAA, the nation’s biggest auto group.
August Payrolls
Lack of jobs is discouraging shoppers. Payrolls grew by about 95,000 in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed so far by Bloomberg before the Sept. 2 jobs report. That would compare with 117,000 in July which brought the average gain over the past three months to 111,000. Employment gains averaged 204,000 in the first four months of the year.
Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, said profit in its fiscal 2011 will be less than it previously projected as sales drop at stores open more than a year. The company also announced it would close seven “under- performing” stores.
“Recent headlines regarding slowing growth and the U.S. credit rating downgrade underscore the continued weakness in the U.S. economy,” Robert A. Niblock, chairman and president, said on an Aug. 15 conference call. “The volume of negative news and the unsettling impact on equity markets is having a significant effect on an already fragile consumer mindset.”
Boost in Salaries
Wages and salaries climbed by $101.2 billion from January through March, the biggest increase since the last three months of 2006 and up from a prior estimate of $82.8 billion. Real disposable income, or after-tax earnings adjusted for inflation, climbed 1.2 percent in the first quarter, rather than the 0.7 percent gain previously estimated. They rose 1 percent in the April-to-June period, also up from the 0.7 percent prior calculation.
Today’s report offered a first look at profits. Earnings climbed 3 percent from the prior quarter, after rising 1 percent in the prior period. They climbed 8.3 percent from the same time last year.
Inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage point from growth last quarter, instead of adding 0.2 point, reflecting a smaller increase than previously estimated. Fewer exports also meant trade added 0.1 point to GDP rather than 0.6 percentage point.
The reductions were partly offset by the bigger increase in consumer spending and more business investment. Excluding trade and inventories, GDP grew at a 1.1 percent annual rate, up from the 0.5 percent prior estimate.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at [email protected]
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The U.S. economy grew less than previously estimated in the second quarter, capping the weakest six months of the recovery that began in mid 2009.
Gross domestic product climbed at a 1 percent annual rate from April through June, down from a 1.3 percent prior estimate, revised Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.1 percent increase. The reduction reflected a smaller increase in inventories and fewer exports.
Slowing job growth and plunging confidence exacerbated by political gridlock and financial-market turmoil this month threaten to weigh on consumer and business spending for the rest of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking today at a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, may hint at what tools policy makers can still use to spur growth.
“Consumers don’t look like they’re in much of a mood to buy,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics in New York. “The economy continues weaker than we thought. It looks like it’s losing momentum and trade reflects the weaker economic circumstances abroad.”
Stock-index futures extended earlier losses after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing next month fell 0.6 percent to 1,150.4 at 8:46 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities rose, sending the yield on the benchmark 10- year note down to 2.19 percent from 2.23 percent late yesterday.
Survey Results
Forecasts of 81 economists in the GDP survey ranged from 0.3 percent to 1.6 percent. At $13.26 trillion in the second quarter, GDP has yet to surpass the pre-recession peak. The world’s largest economy grew at a 0.4 percent rate in the first three months of the year.
The report also contained some positive news as corporate profits grew and wages and salaries were revised up at the start of the year to show the biggest gain in more than four years.
Consumer spending, about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 0.4 percent annual rate, the smallest gain in more than a year. Nonetheless, the reading was revised up from the 0.1 percent previously estimated, reflecting more outlays on financial services, insurance and health care.
Today’s report follows recent cuts in forecasts by economists as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 18 percent between April 29 and Aug. 8, following S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt amid wrangling over deficit-cutting measures and on rising concerns of a euro zone default.
Cutting Forecasts
IHS Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts-based research firm, this week raised the odds of a recession in the U.S. to around 40 percent from a prior 20 percent to 25 percent probability. It cut its growth forecast for 2011 to 1.6 percent from a prior 2.5 percent, adding that a “double-dip downturn is still not the most likely scenario.”
“It appears that the U.S. economy is losing further momentum,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said Aug. 19. While several indicators for July were “surprisingly strong,” economist Zach Pandl wrote that “timelier survey-based data have turned down sharply, and weakness in the hard statistics seems likely to follow.”
Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecast to 1 percent in the third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, both from prior 2 percent estimates. Goldman Sachs on Aug. 5 said it saw a one-in- three chance of a renewed recession in the U.S.
Higher expenses for necessities like food and energy may have curtailed spending on less essential items in the second quarter. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed in May to about $4 a gallon, the highest in almost three years, according to AAA, the nation’s biggest auto group.
August Payrolls
Lack of jobs is discouraging shoppers. Payrolls grew by about 95,000 in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed so far by Bloomberg before the Sept. 2 jobs report. That would compare with 117,000 in July which brought the average gain over the past three months to 111,000. Employment gains averaged 204,000 in the first four months of the year.
Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, said profit in its fiscal 2011 will be less than it previously projected as sales drop at stores open more than a year. The company also announced it would close seven “under- performing” stores.
“Recent headlines regarding slowing growth and the U.S. credit rating downgrade underscore the continued weakness in the U.S. economy,” Robert A. Niblock, chairman and president, said on an Aug. 15 conference call. “The volume of negative news and the unsettling impact on equity markets is having a significant effect on an already fragile consumer mindset.”
Boost in Salaries
Wages and salaries climbed by $101.2 billion from January through March, the biggest increase since the last three months of 2006 and up from a prior estimate of $82.8 billion. Real disposable income, or after-tax earnings adjusted for inflation, climbed 1.2 percent in the first quarter, rather than the 0.7 percent gain previously estimated. They rose 1 percent in the April-to-June period, also up from the 0.7 percent prior calculation.
Today’s report offered a first look at profits. Earnings climbed 3 percent from the prior quarter, after rising 1 percent in the prior period. They climbed 8.3 percent from the same time last year.
Inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage point from growth last quarter, instead of adding 0.2 point, reflecting a smaller increase than previously estimated. Fewer exports also meant trade added 0.1 point to GDP rather than 0.6 percentage point.
The reductions were partly offset by the bigger increase in consumer spending and more business investment. Excluding trade and inventories, GDP grew at a 1.1 percent annual rate, up from the 0.5 percent prior estimate.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at [email protected]
