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โพสต์แล้ว: อังคาร ก.ย. 17, 2013 1:23 am
China’s pollution control plan may hurt coal, but support palladium: Deutsche Bank
September 16, 2013, 2:16 PM
Analysts at Deutsche Bank on Monday said that China’s new pollution guidelines are likely to be negative for coal, but palladium may get a boost from them.
China’s State Council last week unveiled new pollution guidelines, which include a pledge to cut coal usage to roughly 65% of the energy mixed by 2017 from around 67%. Read Craig Stephen’s Are China reform hopes fizzling out?
Under the plan, China will ban new coal-fired power plants in three key industrialized regions and require, among other things, the replacement of coal-heating furnaces by gas-fired furnaces and the construction of gas-fired co-generation projects, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
These measures “will go a considerable way towards achieving the targeted consumption reduction” for coal, they said in a research note.
Deutsche Bank expects Chinese coal imports to decrease in 2014 through 2016 – to 220 million tons in 2014 and 195 million tons in 2016, from an estimated 240-250 million tons of coal imports in 2013.
For palladium, however, risks are “skewed to the upside,” the analysts said.
“A smaller overall lower vehicle sales growth is likely to be offset by a quicker implementation of emission standards and the replacement of polluting cars,” the Deutsche Bank analysts said. Palladium is used in catalytic converters, which help control vehicle emissions.
For iron ore, the new pollution plans are both negative and positive, they said.
“Measures to reduce total number of vehicles and promote the development of public transportation system such as urban transit may provide support to iron ore demand and keep steel production elevated,” they said.
But “a key question is whether government measures to reduce overcapacity will hurt steel production,” Deutsche Bank analysts said, adding that at this point, it’s “difficult to gauge the actual impact of outdated capacity closures on steel production” because most outdated steel capacity in China has zero to low utilization rate.
“State enforced shutdowns are unlikely over the near term,” they said. But “over the near term, overcapacity cuts could be negative for steel production and thus iron ore demand at the margin.”