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economic cycle

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29 Dec 2004

Where Are We In The Global Economic Cycle?
This article looks at what is happening in the global industrial activity cycle and also the demand in the rest of the economy.

by Tony Dolphin, Director of Economics and Strategy At Henderson Global Investors

There is currently a lot of confusion about the cyclical strength of the global economy. This is not always helped by talk of economies going through a soft patch . To understand developments in the economic cycle it is best to consider what is happening in the global industrial activity cycle, and then to look on a country-by-country basis at what is happening to demand in the rest of the economy.

The global industrial cycle

The best guide to what is happening to the global industrial cycle is provided by leading economic indicators. These are published by the OECD for all the major economies. Some countries also produce their own indicators. Measures of business confidence, such as the ISM survey in the United States and the IFO survey in Germany can also be used.

These indicators are currently showing a fairly consistent pattern. They suggest that the global industrial cycle has turned down. As yet, though, it is unclear how long and how deep the downswing will be. The OECD leading indicator, for example, points to a period of little growth in coming months, but is far from signalling an industrial recession.

Actual data on industrial activity have also turned down. In the United States, industrial output has increased by just 1.2% since May (data to October). This compares with a five-month growth rate of 2.7% at the beginning of the year. Output has also disappointed in Japan (down 3.1% since May), in the euro-zone (up only 0.7%) and in the UK (down by 2.1% in total).

This is not a wholly unexpected development. History shows that the global industrial cycle is reasonably regular, with upswings rarely lasting more than two years. The last upswing began in early 2003, and so it was always possible that it would run out of steam around now.

As is often the case, the cycle is being driven by inventories. In the early stages of a recovery, demand tends to grow faster than output and manufacturers run down their inventories, often seeing them fall below desired levels. The strongest part of the cycle follows when companies increase production faster than demand as they attempt to rebuild inventories, but then output slows again once inventories are back to their desired level.

We seem to have now moved to the point where a modest reduction in demand growth has led to an unwanted build up in inventories. This is clear in the US and Japanese data. Output growth is faltering because companies are now increasing output less rapidly than demand and meeting some demand by reducing inventories.

If this is a normal cycle, and there is no reason to believe that it is not, then output growth will bottom when inventories are back to desired levels. This might be expected to take another six months or so, suggesting the low point will be in the second quarter of 2005, and that activity will be strengthening in the second half of the year.

There is some support for this view from the longest leading indicators that economists use monetary conditions indices. These seek to combine the influence of a range of monetary indicators – interest rates, bond yields, exchange rates etc. into one measure that tracks the economic cycle, usually with a lead of about 12 to 15 months. Although the signal is a weak one so far, our own monetary conditions index for the major economies has been rising for the last few months, supporting the notion of better global economic news in the second half of 2005.

This suggests the present industrial weakness will be rather more than the soft patch referred to by some economists, but it is a normal cyclical development, and not something for financial markets to get unduly upset about. The downswing would only turn into something worse if activity outside the industrial sector also faltered, and this is best analysed one country/region at a time.

ลองมาดูกันที่ EURO ZONE

Europe is, perhaps, the easiest region to understand. Although there is a diversity of experience across the region, in aggregate the picture is clear. The economy remains very dependent on external demand for growth. When the global economy accelerates, European exports grow more rapidly, and this lifts investment spending, employment growth and consumer spending. When the global economy slows, as now, European growth immediately follows. The fact that the euro is strong merely adds to the pain.

Some would argue that the authorities have not done enough to support the domestic economy, but this is too harsh. Fiscal policy has been little changed in recent years, constrained by large budget deficits, but it has not been tightened. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has kept interest rates at a very low level close to zero in real terms. It is just that the economy is not responsive to changes in interest rates.

Instead, growth is being held back by structural factors. Some of these factors the authorities could help alleviate by increasing the economy flexibility to enable it to compete better, but progress is likely to be slow. Others such as households fears about the future level of pension provision are likely to prove more intractable. So no immediate relief is likely and Europe will remain largely at the mercy of the global cycle.

Japan In some ways the Japanese economy is similar to the Euro-zone economy, in that it is heavily reliant on exports as a source of growth. It is also true that capital spending tends to follow the export cycle witness the recent collapse in machine orders that has accompanied a drop off in export growth.

Where Japan may now be different is on consumer spending. There is some evidence over the last year or so to suggest that this has become divorced from exports. If real wage growth can be maintained over the comingmonths, this will offset to some extent the slowdown in external demand. It would be premature to suggest that this is conclusive evidence that Japan has emerged from its postbubble trauma. But it would be a sign that Japan is a little less dependent on the economic cycle. Every time the global economy has turned down in the last 14 years, Japan has ended up in recession. That fate looks likely to be avoided this time around.

United Kingdom In recent years domestic spending in the United Kingdom has been supported by lower interest rates, allowing the economy to comfortably avoid a recession in 2001, despite a deep downturn in manufacturing activity. But interest rate increases over the last year (rates are up from 3½ to 4¾%) are now beginning to impact the economy. The housing market has weakened to the point where prices have begun to fall. This will be associated, in all probability, with less consumer spending growth.

Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England has recently argued that consumer spending is less correlated with the housing market than it once was and it is true that mortgage equity withdrawal in recent years has not been associated with a decline in the savings ratio (as it was in the late 1980s). But it is still the case that people who are moving houses tend to buy new things to put in them. If the housing market is going to slow down in 2005, as seems very likely, then consumer spending will probably slow down too. Unlike in 2001, the UK domestic economy may weaken at the same time that the global cycle is weak, so exacerbating the cycle.

ตามด้วย อเมริกาครับ

The United States was also able to mitigate the impact of the last downturn by easing policy. Tax cuts meant that the government balance shifted from a surplus of around 2% of GDP to a deficit of 3% and public sector debt began to rise. Meanwhile, lower interest rates encouraged households to borrow, especially against the value of their homes. The personal sector savings rate dropped to a post-war low of just 0.4% in the third quarter and household debt has soared.

If the economic recovery is to remain healthy in 2005, it is now the turn of companies to borrow and to use the proceeds to boost capital spending and employment. This could happen. Companies have borrowed little in the last few years and their balance sheets are in good shape. Interest rates and corporate bond yields are at historically low levels. Banks and bond investors would be willing to lend the money.

The worry is that companies are too nervous to borrow. They see good reason for caution including high oil prices, the terrorist threat and a sense that households are overextended and might cut back demand. Ultimately, this may cause growth to disappoint in 2005.

บทสรุปครับ

The global industrial cycle is weakening. This is something more than a soft patch but not the start of a major downswing. Growth can be expected to slow down for the next six months or so, but should then recover going into the second half of next year.

Domestic spending could also slow in most of the major economies. In the US and the UK, policy stimulus is being withdrawn and this will cause domestic demand growth to ease. In the Eurozone and Japan, weak export growth will filter through to the rest of the economy.

After growing by about 4.5% in 2004, the global economy is expected to expand by 3.5% in 2005. This is far from a recession, but is probably a bit weaker than currently anticipated by financial markets. This could make the next few months tricky for equity markets, as growth expectations adjust down.

ไทยจะอยู่บนส่วนไหนของ Global economic cycle นั้ไม่สำคัญ

สำคัญอยู่ว่า เราจะรักษาการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจของเรา ได้อย่างไร
เพราะว่าในทุกๆสถานะการณ์ ก็ต้องมีการติดต่อซื้อขาย ระหว่างประเทศอยู่ตลอดเวลา
เนื่องจาก มีการกินการใช้ ตราบใดที่ยังมีชีวิตอยู่

ประเทศเราเล็กมากเมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับประเทศอื่นๆ การพยายามอยู่เหนือ
ทุกๆคลื่น ไม่ว่าเล็กหรือใหญ่ คือสิ่งที่สำคัญที่สุด

นั่นคือเหตุผลว่าทำไมเราจึงพยายามสร้างตลาดภายในประเทศให้มากขึ้น ลดการพึงพิงการส่งออกให้น้อยลงครับ

บทสรุปครับ

The global industrial cycle is weakening. This is something more than a soft patch but not the start of a major downswing. Growth can be expected to slow down for the next six months or so, but should then recover going into the second half of next year.

ผมเห็นหลายสำนักออกบทวิจารณ์แบบนี้ทุกปีครับ
"The cycle is weakening" ผมต่อให้ครับ "due to the technological changes experienced in the past few years spurring a new step to a newer economy"

มันก็ยังอยู่ในอ่างของมันนี่ล่ะ เมื่อไหร่มันจะ think OUT (of the framework) สักที

peak? ดูยังไงครับpeak สภาพคล่องยังมีเหลืออยู่ในระบบธนาคารทำให้ดอกเบี้ยยังคงตัวอยู่แม้มีแนวโน้มขาขึ้น(peak?) อัตราการผลิตส่วนเกินยังคงเหลืออยู่(peak?) อัตราการลงทุนยังคงขยายตัวแม้จะขยายแบบถดถอย(peak?) ผมว่ายังไม่peakนะ

ผมก็ไม่ได้บอกว่า peak ผมแค่ถามความคิดนะคุณgenie
สิ่งที่บทความนี้บอกก็คือGrowth can be expected to slow down for the next six months or so, but should then recover going into the second half of next year.
ซึ่งสอดคล้องกับสิ่งที่ดร.ศุภวุฒิ สายเชื้อได้บอกเมื่อเร็วๆนี้(มีลงในหนังสือพิมพ์ด้วย)ี้ ว่าจะลงไปตํ่าสุดประมาณกลางปี 2005แล้ว ฟื้น ( แต่ไม่ได้บอกว่า ฟื้นมากแค่ไหนไปได้ไกลแค่ไหน )

ผมว่าอันนี้อาจจะช่วยบอกถึง timingที่ดีในการเข้าลงทุนครับ

ทำไมมองสั้นจังเลย economic cycle น่าจะเป็น 5 ปี 10 ปี นะครับ

บอกว่าตอนนี้ขาลง แล้วจะฟื้นตอนกลางปี 2005 อ่านแล้วมัน แหม่งๆ พิกล

chatchai เขียน:นั่นคือเหตุผลว่าทำไมเราจึงพยายามสร้างตลาดภายในประเทศให้มากขึ้น ลดการพึงพิงการส่งออกให้น้อยลงครับ

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