สถานการณ์วิกฤติการเงินกรีซ

[c]

สถานการณ์วิกฤติการเงินกรีซจะส่งผลอย่างไร มีอะไรน่ากังวลไหม หรือว่าอียูเตรียมตัวรับมือพร้อมแล้ว

[c]

กรีซเครียดหนัก! สั่งปิดธนาคารทั่วประเทศ ถอนเงินจากตู้ATMได้แค่วันละ 60 ยูโร (ชมคลิป)

วิกฤติการเงินกรีซเครียดหนัก...นายกฯ อเล็กซิส ซีปราส จำต้องออกมาประกาศมาตรการควบคุมเงินทุน พร้อมกับกำหนดให้ประชาชนสามารถถอนเงินจากตู้เอทีเอ็มได้แค่เพียงวันละ 60 ยูโรเท่านั้น ขณะที่ธนาคารทั่วประเทศปิดทำการนานเป็นสัปดาห์

เมื่อวันที่ 29 มิ.ย.58 สำนักข่าวต่างประเทศรายงานความคืบหน้าวิกฤติการเงินในประเทศกรีซที่กำลังตึงเครียดอย่างหนัก หลังธนาคารกลางยุโรป (European Central Bank) ประกาศไม่ขออัดฉีดเงินช่วยเหลือฉุกเฉินเข้าสู่ระบบการธนาคารของกรีซอีกต่อไปว่า เมื่อวันที่ 28 มิ.ย. 58 ตามเวลาท้องถิ่น นายกรัฐมนตรีอเล็กซิส ซีปราส แห่งกรีซได้มีแถลงการณ์ผ่านสถานีโทรทัศน์แห่งประเทศ ประกาศธนาคารกลางกรีซได้ออกมาตรการควบคุมเงินทุนในประเทศ และกำหนดให้ประชาชนสามารถถอนเงินจากตู้เอทีเอ็มได้แค่เพียงวันละ 60 ยูโร (2,264 บาท) ตั้งแต่วันพรุ่งนี้ (อังคารที่ 30 มิ.ย.) ขณะที่ธนาคารทั่วประเทศกรีซปิดทำการตั้งแต่วันจันทร์นี้ (29 มิ.ย.) เป็นเวลาถึง 1 สัปดาห์เต็ม จนถึงวันที่ 7 ก.ค. เพื่อป้องกันผู้คนเกิดความตื่นตระหนกแห่ถอนเงินจนธนาคารล้ม

ข่าวแจ้งว่า นอกจากจะมีการปิดธนาคารทั่วประเทศกรีซแล้ว ตลาดหลักทรัพย์ในประเทศกรีซก็ปิดทำการในวันจันทร์นี้เช่นกัน โดยสำนักข่าวรอยเตอร์รายงานว่า นายกรัฐมนตรีซีปราส ซึ่งมีสีหน้าอิดโรยมากจนเหมือนกับ ‘ซอมบี้’ ระหว่างออกแถลงการณ์ทางทีวี ยังได้เรียกร้องให้ชาวกรีซอยู่ในความสงบขณะกำลังเผชิญกับช่วงเวลายากลำบาก แต่ชาวกรีซจะสามารถเอาชนะวิกฤติครั้งนี้ได้ในเร็ววัน พร้อมกันนั้นนายกรัฐมนตรีกรีซยังให้คำมั่นสัญญาเงินฝากในธนาคารของประชาชนยังคงปลอดภัยและจะมีการจ่ายเงินเดือนตามปกติ

ทั้งนี้ นับตั้งแต่วิกฤตการณ์การเงินในกรีซเข้าสู่ภาวะตึงเครียด เนื่องจากรัฐบาลกรีซยืนกรานไม่รับแผนมาตรการควบคุมทางการเงินของ ‘เจ้าหนี้’ คือ สหภาพยุโรป(อียู), กองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (ไอเอ็มเอฟ) จนทำให้ไม่ได้รับเงินช่วยเหลือเพื่อนำมาคลี่คลายวิกฤตการเงิน โดยรัฐบาลกรีซเลือกจะให้ประชาชนเป็นผู้ตัดสินผ่านการลงประชามติว่าจะรับแผนมาตรการควบคุมการเงินของกลุ่มเจ้าหนี้หรือไม่ในวันที่ 5 ก.ค.ในขณะที่ กรีซมีกำหนดเวลาจะต้องชำระหนี้ 1,600 ล้านยูโร หรือประมาณ 60,000 ล้านบาท ให้แก่ไอเอ็มเอฟในวันที่ 30 มิ.ย.นี้ มิเช่นนั้น เสี่ยงที่จะโดนขับพ้นจากกลุ่มยูโร จนเป็นเหตุให้วิกฤติการเงินในกรีซตึงเครียดหนักกว่าเดิม และทำให้มีประชาชนจำนวนมากแห่ไปถอนเงินจากตู้เอทีเอ็มจนเงินเกลี้ยงตู้.

http://www.thairath.co.th/content/508210

[ทศพร29]

ส่วนตัวผมผมมองว่า ถ้ากรีซไม่สามารถชำระหนี้ได้ปัญหาก็จะเริ่มรุกลามไปทั่วยุโรป เพราะในช่วงที่ผ่านมากรีซได้แปลงหนี้เป็นตราสารขายให้กับธนาคารยักษ์ใหญ่ของยุโรปจำนวนมาก โดยเฉพราะธนาคารเยอรมันและฝรั่งเศสซึ่งเป็นเจ้าหนี้รายใหญ่ของกรีซ ดังนั้นหนี้ของกรีซที่ธนาคารขนาดยักษ์ของยุโรปถืออยู่ก็อาจจะกลายเป็นหนี้เสีย ซึ่งถือว่าเป็นจำนวนมหาศาล เมื่อวันนั้นมาถึง เราก็คงจะได้เห็นมหกรรมเทขายทรัพย์สินเพื่อความอยู่รอดและเพื่อเสริมสภาพคล่องกันท้วนหน้า ถึงตอนนั้นราคาทรัพย์สินบางอย่างที่อยู่ในภาวะฟองสบู่จะโดนหนักกว่าเพื่อนครับ

[leaderinshadow]

ตอนนี้หนี้ของกรีซ ส่วนใหญ่เกินกว่า 80% ถูกปรับโครงสร้าง จากภาคเอกชนไปยังองค์กรระหว่างประเทศอย่าง IMF แล้วนะครับ
ถ้างั้นผลกระทบน่าจะถูกจำกัดวงมากกว่าเมื่อก่อนเยอะ ที่เจ้าหนี้ส่วนใหญ่เป็นธนาคารเอกชนในยุโรป

[pipatc]

http://www.iammrmessenger.com/?p=1524

The War Room : กรีซ จบไม่จบ? ถ้าจบ จบแบบไหน?
Mr.Messenger มิถุนายน 30, 2015 0

The War Room ถึงแม้จะออกมาแค่ 2 ตอน แต่กระแสตอบรับถือว่าดีใช้ได้ ต้องขอบคุณผู้อ่านทุกท่านนะครับ วันนี้ เนื่องจากมีประเด็นเกี่ยวข้องกับตลาดโลก ที่เราสองคนถกกันตั้งแต่กลางคืน และมีมุมมองแตกต่างในรายละเอียด เลยคิดว่า จะมาขยายประเด็นให้ผู้อ่านได้ร่วมอยู่ใน War Room ห้องนี้ด้วย เชิญติดตามครับ

ชยนนท์ คืนนี้คือเส้นตายจ่ายคืนหนี้ IMF จำนวน $1.7 Billion แล้ว คุณว่ากรีซจะหาเงินมาจ่ายได้ไหมเนี่ย?

เจษฎา ลำพังความสามารถของกรีซ ไม่มีเงินจ่ายหรอกครับ ถ้าจะไม่ให้ผิดนัดชำระหนี้คืนนี้ (Default) มีอยู่ 2 ทางคือ IMF ยอมเลื่อน Deadline การชำระหนี้ให้ หรือมีอัศวินขี่ม้าขาวอย่างรัสเซีย หรือจีนยื่นมือเข้ามาช่วยด้วยการให้เงินกู้ฉุกเฉิน แล้วคุณแบงค์ล่ะ คิดว่าเจ๊งไม่เจ๊ง

ชยนนท์ เท่าที่ตามข่าว MD ของ IMF บอกค่อนข้างชัดเจนแล้วนะว่าไม่เลื่อน ผมว่า คืนนี้กรีซจะเบี้ยวหนี้ IMF แน่นอน ฟันธง!!

เจษฎา แล้วคุณกลัวไหมว่าตลาดหุ้นจะพังหลังกรีซเบี้ยวหนี้?

ชยนนท์ หนี้ที่กรีซกู้ IMF ไม่ใช่ Sovereign Debt ที่รัฐบาลโน้นนี้ หรือสถาบันการเงินที่ไหนในโลกเป็นเจ้าหนี้ ความเสี่ยงมันจำกัด เพราะฉะนั้นจะเบี้ยวก็เบี้ยวไป ไม่เห็นมีปัญหา ถ้าตราบใดที่ทำประชามติออกมาในวันที่ 5 ก.ค. ประชาชนโหวต ‘Yes’ รับเงื่อนไขปฎิรูปตามข้อเสนอยูโร ก็ได้เงินก้อนใหม่มาต่อชีวิตอยู่ดี

เจษฎา ผมว่าอัศวินม้าขาวเกิดได้ยากคืนวันที่ 30 มิ.ย.นี้ แต่ถ้ามาจริงมีเฮ! ตลาดรีบาวนด์ทั่วโลกแน่นอน ซึ่งถ้ากรีซไม่จ่ายเงินคืนนี้ก็จะยังมีเวลา Grace period อีก 30 วันในการหาเงินมาคืน IMF และหลีกเลี่ยงการ “Default” อย่างเป็นทางการได้ ซึ่งถ้าหากประชาชนชาวกรีซโหวต “Yes” ในวันที่ 5 ก.ค. ก็จะเท่ากับว่าแผนการปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ไปต่อได้โดยไม่มีการ Cross Default คือการผิดนัดชำระหนี้อย่างเป็นทางการ อย่างไรก็ตามผู้นำกรีซซ้ายจัด นาย Tsipras ก็ออกมารณรงค์ให้ชาวกรีซโหวต “NO” ไม่รับแผนรัดเข็มขัดของ IMF เช่นกัน ซึ่งผมว่าชาวกรีซมีเสียวว่าอาจจะเอาด้วยเพราะไม่อยากเพิ่มภาษี หรือลดสวัสดิการอีกแล้ว

ชยนนท์ ถึงแม้ไม่ถือว่า Cross Default วันนี้ แต่ถ้าผลประชามติออกมาว่า “NO” ก็ต้องออกจากยูโรโซนอยู่ดีนะ ผมว่า มันโคตรน่ากลัวสำหรับคนกรีซเลย เพราะ การจะกลับไปใช้สกุลดรักม่าของตัวเองในชั่วโมงนี้ นึกให้ตายยังไง ก็นึกไม่ออกว่ามันดีกว่าเดิมตรงไหน ผมมองว่า ถึง IMF ไม่ช่วย แต่เจ้าหนี้หลักอีก 2 คนคือ ECB และ EU ซึ่งกรีซมีหนี้กับ 2 เจ้าหนี้เยอะกว่ามากๆ ก็ต้องช่วยอยู่ดี

เจษฎา ปัญหาคือ Tsipras ดันออกมาพูดว่า “เชื่อเถอะ ยังไง EU ก็ไม่ปล่อยให้กรีซออกจากก๊วนหรอกน่า” ซึ่งมันดูเป็นการท้าทายอำนาจพอสมควรนะ เกิด EU เลือดขึ้นหน้า EGO บังตา แล้วปัดทุกๆข้อตกลงในวินาทีสุดท้าย ก็หมายถึงจบเห่

ชยนนท์ ความเห็นของกูรูการเงินหลายคนก็มีเสียวนะ อ่านแล้วจะเป็นลม 555+ ยกตัวอย่างเช่น El-Erian ที่เคยเป็น CEO และ co-CIO ของ PIMCO ให้ความเห็นผ่าน Bloomberg ว่า กรีซ มีโอกาสถึง 85% ที่จะออกจากยูโรโซน ในขณะที่ Marc Faber อีกหนึ่งกูรูที่ผมชื่นชอบก็บอกว่า อยากให้กรีซออกๆไปเหอะ จะได้จบๆ อยู่ไป ประเทศก็ไม่ฟื้นหรอก หึหึ

เจษฎา เสียงแตกพอควรนะครับ เพราะก็มีบรรดานักวิเคราะห์อีกฝั่งที่เชื่อว่ายังไงก็ตกลงกันได้ และประชาชนกรีซจะโหวต “YES” ตามโพลที่ได้สำรวจไป

ชยนนท์ ผมฟันธงว่าโหวต “YES” กรีซต้องยื้อไปให้ถึงวันที่ 20 ก.ค. ให้ได้ วันนั้น กรีซจะมีอำนาจการต่อรองสูงขึ้นอีกเป็นเท่าตัว เพราะมีหนี้ที่ครบกำหนดกับ ECB รออยู่ €4 Billion หนี้กับ IMF วันนี้มันเด็กๆ แล้วถ้า EU มองอย่างมีสตินะ ช่วยกรีซมาตั้งกี่ปี หนี้เยอะตั้งเท่าไหร่ จะทิ้งเขาไปตอนนี้ มันใช่เรอะ… สรุปผมมองว่า อย่ามองแค่เหตุการณ์นี้แล้วคิดว่าหน้าข่าวหนังสือพิมพ์จะไม่มีกรีซมากวนใจอีก ดูจากหนี้ที่กรีซต้องชำระกับเจ้าหนี้ตามกำหนดในรูปด้านล่างเนี่ย มีวันที่ 20 ก.ค. และ 20 ส.ค. ให้ดูกันอีกรอบครับ แต่คงไม่ตื่นเต้นเท่าวันนี้แล้วละ

เจษฎา จากที่เราถกกันวันนี้ผมขอสรุปเป็น Scenario ดังนี้แล้วกัน แล้วออกหัวออกก้อยเราสองคนจะมา update สถานการณ์กันอีกอย่างใกล้ชิด

กรณี 1 โอกาสเกิดขึ้นน้อย 20%- ถ้าหากกรีซไม่ Default คืนนี้ นั่นคือยุโรปยอมยืดหนี้ให้ หรือมีประเทศใดยื่นมือเข้าช่วย ตลาดหุ้นโลกจะ rebound แรงทันทีพรุ่งนี้

กรณี 2 โอกาสเกิดขึ้นปานกลาง 50% – กรีซผิดนัดชำระคืนนี้ และประชาชนกรีซ Vote YES รับแผนปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ในวันที่ 5 ก.ค. ตลาดหุ้นโลกจะผันผวนในสัปดาห์นี้สิ้นสุดการปรับฐาน และกลับสู่ขาขึ้นในสัปดาห์หน้า

กรณี 3 โอกาสเกิดขึ้นปานกลาง 30% – กรีซผิดนัดชำระหนี้คืนนี้ และประชาชนกรีซ Vote NO ในวันที่ 5 ก.ค. นั่นคือกรีซมีโอกาสสูงที่จะออกจาก Eurozone น่าจะทำให้ตลาดลงต่อซักพัก และจะ rebound ในที่สุดด้วยพื้นฐานเศรษฐกิจยุโรปที่ดีขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ และปัญหา Overhang เรื่องกรีซได้จบลง

[vim]

นายกรัฐมนตรีกรีซขอประชาชนโหวต “ไม่รับ”เงื่อนไขของฝ่ายเจ้าหนี้

วิกฤตหนี้ของกรีซกำลังเข้าสู่จุดแตกหัก โดยในวันอาทิตย์นี้ชาวกรีซจะร่วมกันตัดสินผ่านการลงประชามติว่าจะเอาอย่างไรกับเงื่อนไขของเหล่าประเทศเจ้าหนี้ นายกรัฐมนตรี อเล็กซิส ซิปราส ขอให้ประชาชนลงคะแนนคัดค้านเงื่อนไขดังกล่าว เพราะเขาเห็นว่าหากประชาชนไม่รับเงื่อนไขของเจ้าหนี้ก็จะช่วยให้กรีซมีอำนาจต่อรองมากขึ้น ไม่เช่นนั้นเขาก็จะไม่ขออยู่บริหารประเทศอีกต่อไป เพราะไม่ต้องการเห็นการตัดงบประมาณเพิ่มเติม

ในเวลา 18.00 น.วันนี้ ตามเวลาในกรุงวอชิงตัน จะครบกำหนดเวลาที่กรีซจะต้องชำระเงินกู้ให้กองทุนการเงินระหว่างประเทศ (ไอเอ็มเอฟ) เป็นวงเงิน 1,600 ล้านยูโร หรือประมาณ 60,475 ล้านบาท ขณะที่โครงการกองทุนฉุกเฉินช่วยเหลือกรีซก็สิ้นสุดลงในวันนี้เช่นกัน

ผู้นำภาคีอียูเตือนว่าในการลงประชามติครั้งนี้ถ้าเสียงส่วนใหญ่ไม่ยอมรับข้อเสนอของประเทศเจ้าหนี้ก็เท่ากับว่ากรีซอาจจะต้องออกจากยูโรโซน แม้นายซิปราสเองไม่อยากให้เป็นเช่นนั้นก็ตาม

การเจรจาระหว่างกรีซกับประเทศเจ้าหนี้เมื่อสัปดาห์ที่แล้วประสบความล้มเหลว ส่งผลให้ธนาคารต่าง ๆ ในกรีซต้องปิดทำการตลอดสัปดาห์นี้ ขณะที่ประชาชนจะถอนเงินจากตู้เอทีเอ็มได้วันละไม่เกิน 60 ยูโร

ที่หน้าอาคารรัฐสภาในกรุงเอเธนส์เมื่อเย็นวันจันทร์มีประชาชนหลายหมื่นคนไปรวมตัวกันเพื่อสนับสนุนข้อเสนอของรัฐบาล ส่วนฝ่ายสนับสนุนข้อเสนอของอียูได้นัดรวมตัวกันในวันนี้

“ถ้าชาวกรีกอยากเดินตามแผนรัดเข็มไปเรื่อย ๆ ซึ่งจะทำให้เราไม่สามารถโงหัวได้....เราก็จะเคารพการตัดสินใจนั้น แต่รัฐบาลที่จะดำเนินการไปตามนั้นคงไม่ใช่เรา” นายซิปราสเตือน

ด้านนายฌองโคลด ยุงเกอร์ ประธานคณะกรรมาธิการยุโรป บอกเมื่อวันจันทร์ว่าตนรู้สึกเหมือนถูกรัฐบาลของนายซิปราสหักหลัง และขอเรียกร้องให้ชาวกรีกลงคะแนนคัดค้านข้อเสนอของนายซิปราส ‪#‎GreeceCrisis‬ ‪#‎IMF‬

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เซอร์ไพรส์รายวันเลยครับ

[leaderinshadow]

กรีซยอมอ่อนข้อรับเงื่อนไขบางข้อของเจ้าหนี้ระหว่างประเทศ

นายอเล็กซิส ทซิปราส นายกรัฐมนตรีกรีซบอกว่ากรีซพร้อมจะยอมรับเงื่อนไขบางข้อในข้อตกลงการให้ความช่วยเหลือด้านการเงินจากเจ้าหนี้ระหว่างประเทศ ตามที่ได้มีการเจรจากันเมื่อสุดสัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมา โดยนายทซิปราสได้ส่งจดหมายแจ้งการตัดสินใจไปให้กับกลุ่มเจ้าหนี้ระหว่างประเทศว่ากรีซพร้อมจะรับข้อเสนอ หากมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงเงื่อนไขเล็กน้อย ท่าทีล่าสุดของกรีซครั้งนี้ส่งผลให้ตลาดหุ้นในยุโรปตอบรับในทางบวก อย่างไรก็ตามนางอังเกลา แมร์เคล นายกรัฐมนตรีเยอรมนีกล่าวในรัฐสภาเยอรมนีว่าจะไม่มีการเจรจาเพิ่มเติมใด ๆ จนกระทั่งหลังการลงประชามติในกรีซ ก่อนหน้านี้นายกรัฐมนตรีกรีซกำหนดให้มีการลงประชามติในวันอาทิตย์นี้ (5 ก.ค.)

ด้านคณะมนตรีแห่งสหภาพยุโรปชี้ว่าการลงประชามติจะไม่เป็นไปตามมาตรฐานระหว่างประเทศ หากจะมีขึ้นในวันอาทิตย์นี้ เพราะเป็นการจัดขึ้นอย่างเร่งด่วน โดยมีการเตรียมการเพียงระยะสั้น ๆ นอกจากนั้นยังไม่ชัดว่าจะตั้งคำถามอะไรให้ประชาชนตอบ ในวันนี้รัฐมนตรีคลังของอียูจะหารือสถานการณ์ในกรีซอีกรอบ

ที่กรีซในวันนี้ ธนาคารกำหนดเพดานการถอนเงินจากตู้เอทีเอ็มไว้ที่ 60 ยูโรต่อวัน (ราว 2,200 บาท) ธนาคารบางแห่งเปิดทำการให้ผู้เกษียณอายุ ซึ่งตามปกติไม่ใช้บัตรเอทีเอ็ม สามารถถอนเงินได้ โดยกำหนดไว้ที่ 120 ยูโรต่อสัปดาห์ มีคนจำนวนมาเข้าคิวยาวนอกธนาคาร สำนักข่าวเอพีรายงานว่าผู้เกษียณอายุหลายคนไปรอเข้าคิวก่อนรุ่งสาง แต่ทางธนาคารบอกให้กลับไปใหม่ในวันพรุ่งนี้หรือมะรืนนี้ บางคนบอกว่าทางธนาคารแจ้งให้ทราบว่าเงินบำนาญของพวกเขายังไม่เข้าบัญชี

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[miracle]

Greece Missed Another Deadline Yesterday -- This One in Turkey

by Isobel Finkel
July 1, 2015 — 5:46 PM ICT
Greece missed another billion-dollar deadline yesterday, this time in Turkey.
National Bank of Greece, the country’s largest lender, had set itself a target in March to reduce its stake in Turkey’s Finansbank by Tuesday, as part of demands from EU regulators to cut its holding to 60 percent from 100 percent this year.
The disposal, a condition of the lender’s bail-out, may raise about $1 billion for National Bank of Greece, according to Cagdas Dogan of BGC Partners Inc. That’s equivalent to more than half the size of the payment to the International Monetary Fund which Greece missed last night.
While EU regulators had given National Bank of Greece until year’s-end to reduce the stake, the bank on March 20 announced that it aimed to have the process completed by end June. NBG’s commitment to Directorate General of Competition is still standing, a spokeswoman for Finansbank said by e-mail yesterday, “and we will continue to make the necessary statements in due course.”
The company had planned to offer the Finansbank shares to investors in a public offering. The bank may have to find a buyer for the entire stake or accept a lower price for its holding, said Aykut Ahlatcioglu, banking analyst at Istanbul-based broker Oyak.
“A direct sale is now more likely,” said Ahlatcioglu. “National Bank of Greece did not want to lose a majority stake. However, if the Greek economy worsens further they could be in survival mode, which could change their thinking.”
Reluctant Sale
Paula Hadjisotiriou, the Athens-based lender’s former deputy chief executive officer, said in November the company was reluctant to reduce its holdings in Finansbank. NBG’s chairman and chief executive officer resigned in March, according to the bank’s website, and Hadjisotoriou subsequently resigned as a member of Finansbank’s board, according to a June public filing.
Officials at National Bank of Greece didn’t immediately respond to calls seeking comment on the sale process.
Aside from a changes of management and government in Greece, efforts to sell the Turkish lender were also complicated by political turmoil in Turkey that has triggered a rout in stocks stocks and bonds.
Finansbank was little changed at 3.02 liras as of 11:56 a.m. in Istanbul. The stock is down 2.6 percent this year for a market value of about $3.2 billion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -in-turkey

[miracle]

Greek Slump Deepens as Fraught Debt Talks Destabilize Demand
July 1, 2015 — 3:00 PM ICT
Greece’s economic slump is deepening, with manufacturing suffering its worst quarter in two years and the outlook for jobs deteriorating.
That’s the picture painted in a monthly report from Markit Economics, published hours after Greece missed a loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund, tipping the country closer to a potential exit from the euro-area currency zone.
Markit said its factory Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 46.9 in June from 48 in May, signalling a 10th month of contraction. Output plunged the most in two years, while demand and employment also dropped. Among the euro-area nations tracked by Markit, all registered growth last month apart from Greece.
“In an otherwise broad-based upturn, Greece remained the outlier,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London. “Orders continued to collapse in a month of fraught discussions seeking to stave off default.”
Greece fell back into recession in the first three months of the year and data since then have pointed to a worsening economic situation. Failed talks between the country’s government and its international creditors over a new bailout have undermined sentiment, led to an exodus of cash and raised the prospect of a euro exit.
Markit’s euro-region gauge rose to 52.5 in June from 52.2 in May, above the key 50 level that divides contraction from expansion. In Germany, an index increased to 51.9 from 51.1, while France’s advanced to 50.7 from 49.4. The French number exceeded an initial estimate published on June 23. There was also “solid” growth in Spain and Italy, though at a slower pace than in May. The Spanish measure slipped to 54.5 from 55.8.
The Greek slump in demand in June was led by export orders, which dropped the most since February 2013. According to Phil Smith at Markit, that doesn’t bode well for the labor market in the country, where unemployment is already above 25 percent.
“With negotiations over a debt deal ongoing in June, demand was subdued,” he said. “Without a revival in orders, firms are likely to step up job cuts and look to reduce their excess capacity.”
For more, read this QuickTake: Greece’s Fiscal Odyssey
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ize-demand

[miracle]

Greek Drachma Plunge Previewed in History of Currency Crises

by Simon Kennedy
July 1, 2015 — 3:25 PM ICT

History doesn’t bode well for a new Greek drachma.
Contemplating Greece’s potential exit from the euro, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist John Normand tried to estimate what it would be worth by looking at changes to seven foreign-exchange regimes over the past two decades.
The result is not pretty -- another blow for investors trying to guess how much they might recover of the 40 billion euros ($44 billion) of outstanding Greek bonds and for companies thinking about the business environment under an alternative currency.
Among the changes Normand studied were the end of fixed or managed exchange rates following balances of payments crises in Mexico in 1994, Thailand and Indonesia in 1997, Russia in 1998 and Brazil in 1999. He also threw in Argentina’s 2002 removal of its currency board.
On average, crisis economies saw their currencies slide 55 percent against the dollar in the first year after the rupture and 53 percent two years later. The biggest fall in the first year was Indonesia’s 84 percent devaluation and Russia won the prize over two years with a 78 percent plummet.
‘Destined to Depreciate’
In fairness, Greece’s current account is in surplus and its economy actually grew in 2014, suggesting there is less of a need for depreciation than the other economies studied.
Thailand, for example, ran a deficit of 6 percent of gross domestic product before running into market panic. Normand reckons just allowing for trade suggests a drachma may even be worth the same as a euro at the moment.
Against that, he noted a withdrawal from the euro would deprive Greece of the fiscal and monetary anchors traders need to easily set an exchange rate as well as roiling the economy and commercial environment.
“By this benchmark, the GReuro seems destined to depreciate substantially after its introduction,” Normand said in a report on Tuesday. “It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see an outcome rivaling the worst performance in the league table.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ncy-crises

[miracle]

Tsipras Under Pressure to Cede After Greece Misses IMF Payment
by Eleni ChrepaAndrew Mayeda
July 1, 2015 — 8:21 AM ICT Updated on July 1, 2015 — 11:37 AM ICT

European leaders are waiting for signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.
With Greek society feeling the pain of rationed bank withdrawals and pensions, the government is looking for a way out of economic ruin after a bailout expired and the country joined delinquent Sudan and Zimbabwe in being in arrears to the global lender of last resort.
An 11th-hour request for a new two-year rescue package to tide over a ravaged economy was sternly dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.
“People are just completely fed up,” said Andrea Montanino, a former IMF executive board member who now heads the global economics program at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
While Tsipras has framed the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, economists and policy makers view it as a decision on remaining in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.
Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday.
Still Talking?
Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a thaw as euro-area finance ministers decide to take up Greece’s new aid bid for the second time at 11:30 a.m. Brussels time Wednesday. At first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter, according to three officials with knowledge of the first call on the proposal that took place Tuesday.
“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London. “Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”
In an effort to give talks traction, Greece has agreed to offer more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation, according to an official speaking on condition of anonymity.
‘Little Choice’
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to investors. “This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”
In Washington, the IMF is digesting what is the biggest missed payment since the institution was created during World War II. Its board will decide whether to grant a Greek request for an extension, something Montanino doesn’t think is likely.
For now, at least, markets suggest investors are confident policy-makers are containing the damage. The euro is trading at $1.114, about the same as before negotiations collapsed on June 26. Bonds rose on Tuesday in Spain, Portugal and Italy, which sold 6.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of debt on Tuesday. In Asian trading Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained for a second day, adding 0.4 percent at 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong.
Back in Greece -- where citizens are limited to 60 euros ($67) a day of withdrawals -- the stress of living under financial quarantine is beginning to show. Two pensioners came to blows on a bus returning from the beach to Athens Tuesday morning over who is to blame for the crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... mf-payment

[miracle]

Greek Bank Controls Heap More Pain on Crisis-Weary Citizens
by Ilya Gridneff
July 1, 2015 — 6:01 AM ICT Updated on July 1, 2015 — 3:29 PM ICT

Greece’s capital controls are beginning to bite -- in tiny little nips.
From stocking up on milk powder and medicines and standing in line for hours to withdraw the maximum daily-allowed amount of 60 euros ($67) from ATMs to not being able to buy Apple Store apps, the restrictions are adding a new layer of annoyances for the country’s crisis-weary citizens. As they go into day three of the new limits, Greeks are grappling with the fear that the turn of events portends an even more difficult time to come.
“What can you do?” said Yanis Kordonis, 29, a university student with a part-time job as he played backgammon with a friend at a small cafe in Pangrati, in central Athens, on Tuesday. “You have to remain calm. This has been going on for five years. But I am a little scared, confused too. Our parents are worried they won’t be paid their salaries.”
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has led his country deeper into the economic unknown after he called for a referendum on the latest austerity measures on July 5, and talks with institutional creditors broke down. Greece imposed capital controls and shuttered banks on Monday.
Tsipras’s last-ditch request for aid before Greece’s bailout expired on Tuesday was dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said there will be no negotiations before the referendum. That has left Greeks bracing for the worst, with the referendum set to rip the country into opposing camps.
“I really fear it could end in civil war,” said Aphrodite Tsichias, 34, who withdrew 50 euros after queuing for 30 minutes at an Alpha Bank ATM on Tuesday afternoon. “It could get very ugly.”
Like Dictatorship
Tsichias, who has been unemployed for five years and previously worked at the state television company as a producer, was accompanied by her mother, Hellen Kalamaki, who said the times are reminiscent of the Greek military rule of the 1960s and 1970s.
“We’re watching the news constantly,” Kalamaki said. “It’s like a dictatorship. When I was growing up as a small girl during the military junta, we’d wait to hear developments on the BBC. I want to stay in Europe, but I’m very worried about the future.”
The long-drawn turbulence in the country has inured most Greeks who have seen their economy shrink by a quarter and struggle to emerge from recession. Since Greece sparked the euro area debt crisis in 2009, people have lived with the shadow of uncertainty over the country’s future in the euro.
The tumultuous times have taught them valuable lessons -- like keeping much of their cash under mattresses and tiles, rather than in banks.
Stocking Up
Even so, Tsipras’s moves have created further turmoil, driving some to stock up on essentials.
“People are buying more medicine,” said Xenia Babou, the owner of a pharmacy in Athens. “They’re worried. A lot are buying for the next month; they’re afraid they’ll run out or their government subsidy will be cut off. We are also selling a lot of milk powder for babies.”
Outside Babou’s pharmacy on the busy Pangrati square, three Communist Party members handed out leaflets urging people to vote “no” in Sunday’s referendum, opposing more austerity.
At the Pigi supermarket and delicatessen nearby, there’s no panic, but people are buying a little more than usual, its staff said.
“It’s the usual everyday items but only a little more,” said Sarah, declining to give her last name. “We are not worried about running out of stock.”
Stores increasingly prefer to be paid in cash, fearing card payments will be gummed up in the banking system.

No Buyers
For Yanis Kantzikis, 49, the shortage of cash has meant fewer buyers of his lottery tickets.
“Where are the customers?” he said, raising his arms in exasperation. Even the lure of a 4.1 million-euro jackpot on Thursday is not drawing buyers, he said.
Kantzikis said he voted for Tsipras’s Syriza party in January, and that a “no” vote in the referendum is the only way forward for Greece.
“European governments want Tsipras to fail,” he said. “They are pushing us down because they know if we don’t agree with them others like Spain and Italy will fall too.”
His more urgent concern, however, was that there aren’t enough bettors around.
“Once people had 100 euros to bet,” he said. “Now they are afraid and don’t keep even 10 euros in their pockets.”

[miracle]

Why the EU Is Fed Up With Greece
In 2011, imagining a Greek exit from the euro zone was terrifying. Today, impatience reigns
by Peter Coy
Bloomberg Businessweek

Updated on July 2, 2015 — 5:00 PM ICT

On Sept. 6, 1946, U.S. Secretary of State James Byrnes gave a speech in Stuttgart, Germany. A movement was afoot to penalize the Germans for their role in World War II by deindustrializing the country. Byrnes opposed anything resembling economic spite and promised the country a fair chance to rebuild. “Germany is a part of Europe,” Byrnes said, “and recovery in Europe will be slow indeed if Germany with her great resources of iron and coal is turned into a poorhouse.” It became known as the Speech of Hope.
Whatever he lacks in efficacy, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis knows his history. On June 7, in an op-ed for the website Project Syndicate, he harked back to Byrnes. “Today, it is my country that is locked in such circumstances and in need of hope. Moralistic objections to helping Greece abound, denying its people a shot at achieving their own renaissance,” he wrote. He called on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to come to Greece and give a similar speech—“a break with the past five years of adding new loans on top of already unsustainable debt, conditional on further doses of punitive austerity.”

Merkel, of course, will do no such thing. She and many of her European peers appear increasingly open to the possibility that Greece will crash out of the euro currency. What makes Varoufakis’s op-ed poignant is that he’s largely right about the damage wrought by austerity. Even before the latest chaos, the economy had shrunk by a quarter from its peak. Greece needs debt reduction far more than spending cuts and tax hikes. “I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate and had such catastrophic consequences,” Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz wrote on his blog on June 29.
But the rest of Europe doesn’t want to hear what Greece has to say anymore. In vowing that he has the upper hand in negotiations, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sounds as detached from reality as the Iraqi information minister who promised Western reporters in 2003 that U.S. troops would be smashed by the forces of Saddam Hussein. Varoufakis is a bad-boy academic who likes showing up on a motorcycle and wagging his finger at the diplomats. Here’s Varoufakis again, this time from a Twitter message in April: “FDR, 1936: ‘They are unanimous in their hate for me; and I welcome their hatred.’ A quotation close to my heart (& reality) these days.” This needs to be about Greece, not Yanis.
It’s not just Germans who are tired of Greece. The leaders of Spain, Ireland, and Portugal, who might have been natural allies, have been some of the Greeks’ toughest critics. They argue that their countries swallowed the austerity medicine and that Greece should, too. Concessions to Greece now would embolden leftist critics in their own countries, such as the Podemos party in Spain. Even Bulgaria, which joined the European Union only in 2007 and is still trying to shape up its economy to accede to the euro, is fed up. “We are much poorer than the Greeks, but we have performed reforms,” Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev told the New York Times.
“The costs of the breakdown in negotiations appear to be falling almost entirely on Greece”
The upshot is that events are unfolding roughly as foreseen by the wily German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble: The disaster befalling Greece is scaring other European nations into following the straight and narrow. According to former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in his book Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises, Schäuble told him in 2012 that—in Geithner’s words—some people were arguing “that letting Greece burn would make it easier to build a stronger Europe with a more credible firewall.”
Greece wasn’t yet on the outs in 2011, when Prime Minister George Papandreou announced a referendum on austerity measures demanded by international creditors. Other European leaders pressed him to change the referendum into a yes-or-no vote on euro membership, betting on a clear yes from the Greek people. Instead Papandreou canceled the vote, the opposition called for immediate elections, and the prime minister agreed to step down. This time, with a referendum slated for July 5, the rest of Europe is almost blasé. That’s partly because the EU has new mechanisms to prevent contagion, and partly because a Greek exit, if it occurs, will likely be so ugly that no one will be tempted to follow it out the door. At this stage, “acquiescing to Greek intransigence on economic reforms” seems like “a greater existential threat to the euro zone than the potential spillover effects of a Greek exit,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, wrote in an e-mail. “The costs of the breakdown in negotiations appear to be falling almost entirely on Greece.”
Europe may not even need to expel Greece from the common currency to be relieved of it. The country has already been cut off by the European Central Bank from increases in emergency liquidity assistance and may soon lose access to other lending channels. “You can kind of leave Greece in this state of suspended animation in which the whole issue of Grexit becomes neutered,” says Huw Pill, a former European Central Bank official who is chief European economist for Goldman Sachs International.
If the euro zone is shorn of its most unreliable member, the other 18 countries could build trust with each other and band together more tightly. It’s conceivable that the governments would agree someday to a fiscal union—i.e., centralized taxing and spending—making the euro zone a single economic entity like the U.S. That would fix the biggest flaw in the euro experiment. Because they share a currency, countries in recession can’t resort to the safety valve of a currency depreciation. In the U.S., of course, hard-hit regions get automatic relief because their tax payments fall while benefits like food stamps rise. Europe’s stabilizers are tiny: The entire EU budget is only 1 percent of the region’s gross domestic product.
But it’s equally possible the euro zone will go in the other direction, away from unification. The cultural, historical, and linguistic differences between Greeks and Germans remain far deeper than those between, say, Texans and Floridians. An EU survey of citizens in 28 member nations last November found that 52 percent felt very attached to their cities, towns, or villages, and 54 percent felt very attached to their countries, but only 9 percent felt very attached to the EU itself. The bailouts triggered by the financial crisis didn’t help matters, feeding into ancient stereotypes by pitting mostly northern creditor nations against mostly southern borrowers (not just Greece). In 2011, European Parliament member Jussi Halla-aho of Finland suggested Greece needed a junta “to rein in the strikers and demonstrators … with tanks.”
In retrospect, Europe’s first mistake was letting Greece into the euro zone in 2001. Germans wagered correctly that Greek accession would enlarge the market for their exports. But they were wrong in thinking that Greece would be inspired or forced to fix its rickety economy. Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency went unabated. The second mistake was allowing Greeks to overborrow; optimistic investors accepted yields on sovereign debt nearly as low as those Germany paid. The third mistake was to treat the problem by piling on official loans rather than by restructuring the private-sector debt. Greece would have had a better chance of recovery, and Europe would have been less exposed: “I don’t think anybody would have seen it as bending the rules if the composition of fiscal adjustment had been different,” says Alessandro Leipold, chief economist at the Lisbon Council, a Brussels-based think tank and policy network.
The Europeans mishandled Greece. Tsipras and Varoufakis responded with hubris. Now Greece stands at the center of its own drama, surrounded by a wailing chorus, as erstwhile allies prepare to say goodbye.

[miracle]

Here's the Grim Future That Awaits Greece's Babies Born in the Crisis
Greek children face a very different fate than their German counterparts, economic forecasts show

by Giovanni SalzanoLorenzo Totaro
July 2, 2015 — 5:11 PM ICT

A Greek, an Italian and German are born as the crisis that rattled markets from New York to Shanghai was about to unfold: Three nationalities, three very different economic fortunes.
At age 3, the German is growing up in an economy that's already in better shape than when he was born. The Italian will have to wait till she's 17 to enjoy similar conditions in her own country. The Greek will reach adulthood without any chance of a better future until he's at least 18.
Bloomberg crunched International Monetary Fund's data and forecasts, to map out their futures by the numbers in four charts. The scenarios are based on the last IMF forecasts released in April. The economic outlook has darkened since.
1. When will it end?
Babies born in 2007-2008 couldn't know they were going to grow up in countries that were hurtling into recession. This chart shows how old these kids will be by the time their economies have returned to pre-crisis levels.

2. Economic resilience
This chart shows how long it will take for economies of Italy and Greece to catch up to pre-crisis levels.
Germany, the euro region’s powerhouse, recouped lost ground in just three years. By contrast, Greece’s GDP was 25.8 percentage points under the pre-crisis level in 2014.

3. Labor lost
The job market is looking pretty dire if you are an Italian girl or Greek boy born in recession times. They might want to move to Germany, where in 2020 unemployment will be half what it is in their own countries. Dial the clock back a decade, it was a very different story. Germany actually had a higher unemployment rate than Greece.

4. Farming on the rise?
For the first time on record, the contribution of agriculture to the economies of Greece and Italy rose between the crisis and 2014. That represents a U-turn in the century-long process of industrialization. In Germany, industry just got stronger.

5. Poverty
In the meantime, poverty is pervasive in Greece and Italy, forced into severe spending cuts to reduce their deficits. This chart shows what kind of economic fate awaits the children of the lesser (and greater) euro.


Greece Germany Italy Euro GDP Unemployment Unemployment Rate
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Why the EU Is Fed Up With Greece
In 2011, imagining a Greek exit from the euro zone was terrifying. Today, impatience reigns
by Peter Coy
Bloomberg Businessweek
Updated on July 2, 2015 — 5:00 PM ICT
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Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras waits for a televised interview to start inside a studio of state broadcaster ERT in Athens on June 29. Photographer: Yorgos Karahalis/Bloomberg
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Defiant Varoufakis Says He’ll Quit If Greeks Endorse Austerity

Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows
Greek Capital Ahead Of Papandreou Confidence Vote
Here's the Grim Future That Awaits Greece's Babies Born in the Crisis

Varoufakis Says he Will Quit if Greeks Vote 'Yes'

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On Sept. 6, 1946, U.S. Secretary of State James Byrnes gave a speech in Stuttgart, Germany. A movement was afoot to penalize the Germans for their role in World War II by deindustrializing the country. Byrnes opposed anything resembling economic spite and promised the country a fair chance to rebuild. “Germany is a part of Europe,” Byrnes said, “and recovery in Europe will be slow indeed if Germany with her great resources of iron and coal is turned into a poorhouse.” It became known as the Speech of Hope.
Whatever he lacks in efficacy, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis knows his history. On June 7, in an op-ed for the website Project Syndicate, he harked back to Byrnes. “Today, it is my country that is locked in such circumstances and in need of hope. Moralistic objections to helping Greece abound, denying its people a shot at achieving their own renaissance,” he wrote. He called on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to come to Greece and give a similar speech—“a break with the past five years of adding new loans on top of already unsustainable debt, conditional on further doses of punitive austerity.”
Varoufakis on Greece's Future in Two Minutes
Merkel, of course, will do no such thing. She and many of her European peers appear increasingly open to the possibility that Greece will crash out of the euro currency. What makes Varoufakis’s op-ed poignant is that he’s largely right about the damage wrought by austerity. Even before the latest chaos, the economy had shrunk by a quarter from its peak. Greece needs debt reduction far more than spending cuts and tax hikes. “I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate and had such catastrophic consequences,” Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz wrote on his blog on June 29.
But the rest of Europe doesn’t want to hear what Greece has to say anymore. In vowing that he has the upper hand in negotiations, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sounds as detached from reality as the Iraqi information minister who promised Western reporters in 2003 that U.S. troops would be smashed by the forces of Saddam Hussein. Varoufakis is a bad-boy academic who likes showing up on a motorcycle and wagging his finger at the diplomats. Here’s Varoufakis again, this time from a Twitter message in April: “FDR, 1936: ‘They are unanimous in their hate for me; and I welcome their hatred.’ A quotation close to my heart (& reality) these days.” This needs to be about Greece, not Yanis.
It’s not just Germans who are tired of Greece. The leaders of Spain, Ireland, and Portugal, who might have been natural allies, have been some of the Greeks’ toughest critics. They argue that their countries swallowed the austerity medicine and that Greece should, too. Concessions to Greece now would embolden leftist critics in their own countries, such as the Podemos party in Spain. Even Bulgaria, which joined the European Union only in 2007 and is still trying to shape up its economy to accede to the euro, is fed up. “We are much poorer than the Greeks, but we have performed reforms,” Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev told the New York Times.
“The costs of the breakdown in negotiations appear to be falling almost entirely on Greece”
The upshot is that events are unfolding roughly as foreseen by the wily German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble: The disaster befalling Greece is scaring other European nations into following the straight and narrow. According to former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in his book Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises, Schäuble told him in 2012 that—in Geithner’s words—some people were arguing “that letting Greece burn would make it easier to build a stronger Europe with a more credible firewall.”
Greece wasn’t yet on the outs in 2011, when Prime Minister George Papandreou announced a referendum on austerity measures demanded by international creditors. Other European leaders pressed him to change the referendum into a yes-or-no vote on euro membership, betting on a clear yes from the Greek people. Instead Papandreou canceled the vote, the opposition called for immediate elections, and the prime minister agreed to step down. This time, with a referendum slated for July 5, the rest of Europe is almost blasé. That’s partly because the EU has new mechanisms to prevent contagion, and partly because a Greek exit, if it occurs, will likely be so ugly that no one will be tempted to follow it out the door. At this stage, “acquiescing to Greek intransigence on economic reforms” seems like “a greater existential threat to the euro zone than the potential spillover effects of a Greek exit,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, wrote in an e-mail. “The costs of the breakdown in negotiations appear to be falling almost entirely on Greece.”
Europe may not even need to expel Greece from the common currency to be relieved of it. The country has already been cut off by the European Central Bank from increases in emergency liquidity assistance and may soon lose access to other lending channels. “You can kind of leave Greece in this state of suspended animation in which the whole issue of Grexit becomes neutered,” says Huw Pill, a former European Central Bank official who is chief European economist for Goldman Sachs International.
If the euro zone is shorn of its most unreliable member, the other 18 countries could build trust with each other and band together more tightly. It’s conceivable that the governments would agree someday to a fiscal union—i.e., centralized taxing and spending—making the euro zone a single economic entity like the U.S. That would fix the biggest flaw in the euro experiment. Because they share a currency, countries in recession can’t resort to the safety valve of a currency depreciation. In the U.S., of course, hard-hit regions get automatic relief because their tax payments fall while benefits like food stamps rise. Europe’s stabilizers are tiny: The entire EU budget is only 1 percent of the region’s gross domestic product.
But it’s equally possible the euro zone will go in the other direction, away from unification. The cultural, historical, and linguistic differences between Greeks and Germans remain far deeper than those between, say, Texans and Floridians. An EU survey of citizens in 28 member nations last November found that 52 percent felt very attached to their cities, towns, or villages, and 54 percent felt very attached to their countries, but only 9 percent felt very attached to the EU itself. The bailouts triggered by the financial crisis didn’t help matters, feeding into ancient stereotypes by pitting mostly northern creditor nations against mostly southern borrowers (not just Greece). In 2011, European Parliament member Jussi Halla-aho of Finland suggested Greece needed a junta “to rein in the strikers and demonstrators … with tanks.”
In retrospect, Europe’s first mistake was letting Greece into the euro zone in 2001. Germans wagered correctly that Greek accession would enlarge the market for their exports. But they were wrong in thinking that Greece would be inspired or forced to fix its rickety economy. Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency went unabated. The second mistake was allowing Greeks to overborrow; optimistic investors accepted yields on sovereign debt nearly as low as those Germany paid. The third mistake was to treat the problem by piling on official loans rather than by restructuring the private-sector debt. Greece would have had a better chance of recovery, and Europe would have been less exposed: “I don’t think anybody would have seen it as bending the rules if the composition of fiscal adjustment had been different,” says Alessandro Leipold, chief economist at the Lisbon Council, a Brussels-based think tank and policy network.
The Europeans mishandled Greece. Tsipras and Varoufakis responded with hubris. Now Greece stands at the center of its own drama, surrounded by a wailing chorus, as erstwhile allies prepare to say goodbye.

[miracle]

Defiant Varoufakis Says He’ll Quit If Greeks Endorse Austerity
by Guy JohnsonMatthew Campbell

July 2, 2015 — 4:40 PM ICT Updated on July 2, 2015 — 10:35 PM ICT

Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t “extend and pretend” that it can pay its debts, vowing to quit as finance minister if voters don’t support the government in Sunday’s referendum.
With banks shut and the economy hobbled by capital controls, Varoufakis said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Athens that he would “rather cut my arm off” than sign a deal that fails to restructure Greece’s debt. The International Monetary Fund said the country needs at least another 36 billion euros ($40 billion) from the euro region over the next three years and easier terms to make the debt sustainable.

“We desperately want to stay in the euro,” Varoufakis said. “We are going to win on Sunday.” The 54-year-old economics professor said he “will not” continue in his post if Greece endorses austerity in the vote.
"Maybe we'll change the configuration of the government"
The minister’s comments illustrate the gulf between Greece’s government, which swept into office on a wave of discontent about budget cuts, and the creditors who are threatening to push it out of the euro.
European governments led by Germany have condemned last weekend’s decision by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to pull out of talks and call a snap referendum on the conditions for financial aid. Polls suggest the outcome is too close to call.
‘Stomach’ a Deal?

Varoufakis has been one of the key personalities of Syriza's six-months in power in Greece Photographer: Yorgos Karahalis/Bloomberg
Tsipras, Varoufakis and their Syriza party are urging Greeks to vote “no,” arguing that Greece can remain in the single currency on better terms if they do so -- a contention rejected by creditors. A “yes” vote could lead to the collapse of the Tsipras government and fresh elections, a possibility to which Varoufakis alluded.
“Maybe we’ll change the configuration of the government because some of us will not be able to stomach it,” said Varoufakis, adding he would help ensure a smooth transition.
With no bailout program in place and banks running short on funds, lenders are closed all week and capital controls are in place. Local media have begun to speculate that deposits could be seized to bolster the country’s finances; for now, citizens can withdraw a maximum of 60 euros a day.
Varoufakis Says he Will Quit if Greeks Vote 'Yes'
Safe Deposits
Minister of State Nikos Pappas tried today to put to rest concerns about such a “bail-in” of depositor funds. The government sees no reason for one and doesn’t consider it an option, he told Bloomberg Television.
The euro gained 0.4 percent to $1.1101 as of 4:22 p.m. in London. It has declined 8.3 percent against the dollar this year.
The uncertainty has created surreal scenes in Greece, with lines continuing at bank machines, employers uncertain they can pay wages, and everyone from cab drivers to factory workers and students debating Syriza’s tactics. Many merchants are asking customers to pay with cash, fearing that card payments won’t be processed due to the financial turmoil.
Varoufakis today insisted that Greece’s banks will be able to open without difficulty on Tuesday, after the planned closure is completed. He blamed creditors for shutting them down and accused them of making up rules as they go along.
“There was a political decision by Europe to shut the banks down as a way of effectively pushing us to accept a non-viable agreement,” Varoufakis said. “Once the political crisis is over, after the Greek people deliver their verdict, banks will open.”

[miracle]

Merkel Braces for Greece Turmoil Whichever Way Vote Goes
by Arne DelfsBirgit Jennen

July 2, 2015 — 11:36 PM ICT

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is bracing for a protracted phase of political turmoil in Greece followed by tortuous negotiations even if Greeks vote for further austerity on Sunday, according to two people involved in policy making in Berlin.
A quick solution to the crisis in Greece isn’t in sight because European rules mean any new negotiations on financial help would be more complex than to date, one of the officials said. The backing of German lawmakers is required even just to restart aid talks, inserting additional uncertainty at a time when trust in Greek intentions is at a low, the second official said. Both asked not to be named discussing government deliberations.
The scenarios being debated in Berlin suggest the referendum is only one more stage in the Greek saga rather than an endgame as Merkel’s five-year effort to keep the euro area whole hangs in the balance. A change of government in Athens to restore lost trust would probably speed up the process, according to several German officials and lawmakers.
“First of all, Greece has to decide what it wants,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday. “Then we have to find serious and sustainable solutions. We have to create the foundation for renewed trust that can’t be wrecked unilaterally.”
While communications haven’t broken down, months of conflicting signals by Greece’s government have left the chancellery unsure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s intentions, the first official said. If Tsipras called the anti-austerity referendum and walked away from aid talks with the aim of winning more concessions from Greece’s creditors, he miscalculated, according to the official.
Suspicious Lawmakers
Even after the political uncertainty passes, any Greek aid request would face a wall of suspicion in Germany, particularly if Tsipras stays in power, the second official said.
Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said in a Bloomberg Television interview he would resign if Greek voters endorse austerity in the plebiscite. Tsipras took a similar stance, telling a Greek television interviewer he’s “not attached to the chair” and would “respect the will of the people.”
After Greece’s old bailout ended Tuesday without an accord on the way forward, the next bid would have to tap the European Stability Mechanism, which has higher hurdles for aid.
One of the first is getting lawmakers in Merkel’s governing coalition, many of whom are fed up with Greece, to approve the start of negotiations. Her government wouldn’t even lobby for talks unless it saw a reasonable chance of a deal, the first official said.
Summer Recess
In that event, Germany’s 631 lower-house lawmakers might have to interrupt their summer recess that runs from Friday to Sept. 4.
“If the program is rejected for good in the referendum, it’s over,” said Alexander Radwan, a lawmaker from the Merkel-affiliated Christian Social Union party. “It’s up to those who left the negotiating table to return to it.”
While Merkel is leaving the door open to talks after the referendum, she says Greece no longer poses a threat to Europe’s future. That echoes President Barack Obama, who said Tuesday he doesn’t see the risk of “a major shock to the system.”
Faced with growing headwinds over Greece among German voters and lawmakers, Merkel said she won’t be pressed into helping Greece.
“We can calmly wait” for any Greek aid request, she said in a speech to parliament Wednesday. “Overcoming Europe’s sovereign debt crisis requires time and staying power.”

[miracle]

Tsipras Is Learning From Merkel Who’s the Boss
by Matthew Campbell
July 2, 2015 — 5:07 PM ICT Updated on July 2, 2015 — 8:23 PM ICT

Alexis Tsipras is flouting the cardinal rule of political survival in Europe: don’t displease Angela Merkel.
The German chancellor’s disapproval helped end the political careers of former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and Greek leader George Papandreou.
After burning through whatever goodwill he had with Merkel’s lawmakers and the German public, the current Greek premier could be next.
The support of Merkel, politically secure in her 10th year leading Europe’s largest economy, is essential for debtor governments. Tsipras upended talks with his creditors last week calling a referendum on German-inspired austerity, a decision that left him few options if voters accept budget cuts as the cost of aid.
“We are watching the end of the political career of Alexis Tsipras,” Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute in Washington, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “Mr. Tsipras can continue his career on T-shirts for students, replacing Che Guevara.”
Merkel says there will be no further debt negotiations with Greece until the outcome of the referendum is known. Euro-area finance ministers echoed that line following a conference call late on Wednesday.

‘Legitimate Right’
“It’s the legitimate right of the Greeks to do that whenever they want, on whatever question and with whatever recommendation the government wants to give,” Merkel said in a speech to parliament. “But, to be clear, the other 18 euro member states have the same democratic legitimacy to duly take their position in response to the Greek decision.”
Refusing to play ball with Germany didn’t turn out well for Berlusconi, whose premiership had survived innumerable court cases and a tawdry sex scandal. A senior lawmaker from Merkel’s Christian Democrats spoke for her party when he urged Berlusconi to resign in November 2011 to allow Italy to fix its economy. A few days later he did just that.
Papandreou’s Lesson
Papandreou learned a similar lesson the same year. When he called a bailout referendum, Merkel insisted to him that the question focus on remaining in the euro -- as Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble recounted Wednesday in German parliament. The ensuing turmoil in Greece, and within his own socialist party, forced Papandreou to resign and the vote was scrapped.
“This is the historical truth,” Schaeuble said.
Whether Tsipras, the former Communist organizer can continue in office will depend largely on the outcome of the plebscite on Sunday. His left-wing Syriza party is urging voters to reject the program of tax rises and spending cuts proposed by euro-zone finance ministers.
A “no” vote could propel the country out of the euro, an outcome that opinion polls show most Greeks want to avoid. Tsipras says that result would strengthen his leverage and yield a better bailout deal.
A win for the “yes” camp, backed by Greece’s main opposition parties and the rest of the euro-area leaders, would constitute a public rebuke of Tsipras.
Tsipras Choice
When asked by a Greek television interviewer if he would resign if he loses in the referendum, he said, “I’m not attached to the chair.”
“I’m in this position because of the will of the people,” he said. “I will respect the will of the people.”
While Merkel disputes that she seeks to interfere in other countries, her influence isn’t universally welcomed at home.
Gregor Gysi, parliamentary leader of Germany’s anti-capitalist Left party, on Wednesday alleged that Merkel is trying to foment regime change in Athens.
“You want to get rid of the leftist government in Greece, that’s your goal,” Gysi said in a parliamentary debate. He cited Merkel’s refusal to engage in aid negotiations before the referendum. “That’s the proof. It’s because you hope that the government will fall on Sunday,” he said.
The view from Athens reflects a similar perspective.
When asked in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday if Merkel is pushing for regime change, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis cited a stock phrase uttered by a fictional British politician.
“You may very well say that,” he said. “I couldn’t possibly comment.”

[miracle]

หาคำให้คำตอบว่า
ทำไมรอบนี้ ทองคำไม่ขึ้น ,โลหะเงินก็ไม่ขึ้น
คำตอบคือ
1. เมื่อ ค่าเงินยูโรอ่อนค่า แล้วมันอ่อนเทียบกับใคร ดอลล่าร์ หรือ เยน หรือ สกุลเงินอื่นๆ ละ
ถ้าเทียบกับดอลล่าร์ ก็อ่อนค่าจริงๆ จากเดิม 1.30$ ต่อ 1ยูโร ตอนนี้เหลือ 1.10 $ ต่อ 1 ยูโร
2. มันยังไม่ใช่วิกฤติหรือเปล่า ต้องรอหลังลงประชามติหรือเปล่า

[หมูน้อย]

หาคำให้คำตอบว่า
ทำไมรอบนี้ ทองคำไม่ขึ้น ,โลหะเงินก็ไม่ขึ้น
คำตอบคือ
1. เมื่อ ค่าเงินยูโรอ่อนค่า แล้วมันอ่อนเทียบกับใคร ดอลล่าร์ หรือ เยน หรือ สกุลเงินอื่นๆ ละ
ถ้าเทียบกับดอลล่าร์ ก็อ่อนค่าจริงๆ จากเดิม 1.30$ ต่อ 1ยูโร ตอนนี้เหลือ 1.10 $ ต่อ 1 ยูโร
2. มันยังไม่ใช่วิกฤติหรือเปล่า ต้องรอหลังลงประชามติหรือเปล่า

วันจันทร์ที่ 6 ก.ค. นี้อาจจะ #ร้องไห้หนักมาก (ช่วงนี้กำลังฮิต อิอิอิ)

[syj]

ในความคิดของผม (IMHO)....

Greek แทบไม่มีผลกระทบใดๆ ต่อเศรษฐกิจโลกอย่างแน่นอนครับ
แค่ก้อนหินเล็กๆ โยนลงในมหาสมุทร กรีกผลิตอะไรบ้างหรือสร้างคุณค่า
อะไรบ้างให้กับเศรษฐกิจโลก ผมว่าแทบมองไม่เห็น

สิ่งที่เราควรมองคือเอาเป็นกรณีศึกษาถึงมหัตภัยร้ายแรงของ ประชานิยม
(ที่จริงดูประเทศในอเมริกาใต้หลายๆประเทศก็ได้ โดยเฉพาะ
Don't Cry For Me...Agentina). ประเทศเราก็ใกล้มากๆ กับ
การเสพติดประชานิยม. ร่อๆแร่ๆ เลยครับ ปากเหวแล้ว แต่คนส่วนมาก
มองไม่เห็น (ผมว่าคนกรีกส่วนใหญ่ ก็ยังมองไม่เห็น).

ความแตกต่างของคนเยอรมัน ที่รายได้สูงมากๆแต่ก็ยังประหยัด กับกรีกที่ผลิตอะไรก็ไม่เป็น
แต่ฟุ่มเฟือย รอแต่เงินประชานิยมจากรัฐบาล เห็นได้ชัดขนาดไหน

[Nevercry.boy]

ผมไม่ให้ราคาข่าวที่เกี่ยวกับกรีซ

แต่ให้เวลากับการแกะงบ แกะข่าวของหุ้นที่ผมสนใจ

ผมเป็นนักเก็งกำไร ไม่ใช่นักเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาค

จบ

[ทศพร29]

ผมไม่ให้ราคาข่าวที่เกี่ยวกับกรีซ

แต่ให้เวลากับการแกะงบ แกะข่าวของหุ้นที่ผมสนใจ

ผมเป็นนักเก็งกำไร ไม่ใช่นักเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาค

จบ

พูดอีกก็ถูกอีกครับ

[miracle]

จริงอยู่ที่ VI สนใจกิจการเท่านั้นไม่สนใจภาพใหญ่
แต่ในโลกของการเงินนั้น ในเมื่อ กองทุน,ฝรั่ง และอีกมากมายนั้นเรียนรู้เรื่อง
"Portfolio theory" พื้นฐานคือกระจายความเสี่ยงไปยังหลักทรัพย์ที่มากกว่า 24 ตัว
คุณจะได้ตัวแทนของตลาดนั้นๆ แล้ว แต่ทว่า ถ้าหากคุณลงทุนในตลาดเดียวเท่านั้น
คุณก็ไม่ได้กระจายความเสี่ยงในระดับตลาด จึงเกิดการลงทุนข้ามตลาด ซึ่งเพิ่มความเสี่ยงด้านอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนเพิ่มขึ้น
แลกกับการกระจายความเสี่ยงเพิ่มขึ้น
ดังนั้นเมื่อเกิดวิกฤติที่ใดในโลกก็ตาม มันจะเกิดการเทกระจาดในตลาดอื่นๆ ถึงแม้นว่า ตลาดนั้นไม่มีผลกระทบก็ตาม
แล้วเพราะอะไรทำให้เกิดแบบนี้ขึ้นเพราะ การเงินไม่มีพรมแดน นักลงทุนสหรัฐสามารถลงทุนในหุ้น,หน่วยลงทุนของกองทุนรวม,สัญญาล่วงหน้าต่างๆ,ETF (ตัวแทนดัชนีต่างๆ) ในประเทศเวียดนาม ,ญี่ปุ่น ,จีน ,กรีซ,อังกฤษเป็นต้น
ถ้าหากยังไม่ลืมไป วิกฤติแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ ตลาดไทยกระทบ แต่พื้นฐานแข็งแกร่ง แต่ก็ลงหนัก
ตามมาด้วยวิฤติของ PIGS ก็โดนอีกเหมือนกัน หากย้อนไปไกลหน่อย ตลาดไทยเมื่อก่อนหน้าก็โดนวิกฤติแม็กซิโก้ ด้วย
ดังนั้นไม่ควรมองข้ามไปในจุดนี้
คุณอาจจะของถูกจนไม่น่าเชื่อก็เป็นไปได้
จงเตรียมเงินสดเอาไว้ให้พร้อมละกัน

[miracle]

Greece Referendum: What Happens If They Vote ‘No’
And also if they say “Yes” (though that's less complicated)

by Rebecca Christie
July 3, 2015 — 5:49 PM ICT

Greeks are being asked to vote on whether to accept a proposal by the country's creditors for more austerity to keep aid flowing.
Voters have received a clear message from the euro area: vote “Yes” in the July 5 bailout referendum. But Greece’s Syriza-led government is pushing the other way.
The Question:
The 68-word ballot question namechecks four international institutions and asks voters for their opinion on two highly technical documents that weren’t made public before the referendum was called. Here it is, translated into English:
“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on on June 25 and which consists of two documents:
‘‘The first document is called Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond and the second document is called Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.
‘‘- Those citizens who reject the institutions’ proposal vote Not Approved / NO
‘‘- Those citizens who accept the institutions’ proposal vote Approved / YES.’’
Not everyone in Greece is finding the question easy to understand.
Greeks Struggle to Understand What They're Voting About
What Happens Next?
With polls showing a tight result, the only thing certain about the referendum is the timing: polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and the result may be known before midnight.
Either way, what follows are emergency negotiations, the outcome deciding which side feels it has the upper hand.

The following scenarios are based on conversations with officials working on how to handle the Greek crisis, along with investors and economists.
Scenario 1: “Yes” – Then a Third Bailout
If Greeks vote “Yes” a third bailout package could come together in a matter of weeks if all sides put their minds to it, although Greece might need to form a new government in the same period. Results from the referendum could be known within hours, and some politicians have raised the prospect of a national unity, pro-European government with parties that backed a “Yes” vote.
Euro-area officials would probably reconvene quickly to consider next steps. Once there’s a deal in principle, it’s even possible Greece could win disbursement of 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) from central-bank profits on bond purchases – money that was set aside for the second bailout and then taken off the table on June 30.
Scenario 2: Greece Vote “No”
If voters heed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s recommendation and reject the bailout terms, Greece wouldn’t leave the euro overnight. Instead, the country would face three or four weeks of increasing pressure to start printing its own money.
That’s because Greek banks might soon be unable to meet European Central Bank demands for the collateral needed to keep access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance, and the Greek government would run out of cash to pay its bills and workers. At that point, it would be Greece's decision to back out of the currency bloc.
Does the ECB Then Withdraw Support Immediately?
Not necessarily. The ECB probably won’t withdraw its support overnight. Instead, the institution’s bank supervision arm will decide how to value the government-backed assets held on Greek banks’ balance sheets. Meanwhile, the central bank’s monetary policy arm will consider whether to object to collateral that lenders post to gain ELA access from the Bank of Greece.
Then, the banks would face a call for new collateral and might come up short. Taken together, the supervisory and ELA review could show the Greek banks to be insolvent, and Greece wouldn’t have the means to use euros to prop them up again.
Greece also faces a series of financing hurdles, including bill refinancings and loan repayments. Things could come to a head on July 20 – if they haven’t already – when Greece needs to repay about 3.5 billion euros in bond redemptions for securities held by the ECB.
What's Next for Greece?
How Will the Lawyers Handle It?
Once Greece restarted its own currency, the legal procedures would need to play catch-up. Any contracts signed in euros will be thrown into question. Some sort of legal procedure will then need to be found to get Greece out of the euro, or at least to suspend its membership.
As one way around the hurdle, euro-area finance ministers are considering whether Article 352 of the European Union’s founding treaties might offer some basis. That section, which provides for the extraordinary adoption of measures, can only be used by unanimity and working with the European Commission and European Parliament.
What Would Happen When the Drachma Returns?
Any new currency would probably start off by posting a hefty discount to the euro. Analysts have said Greece’s citizens would see an initial 30 percent to 40 percent drop in their purchasing power should the nation replace the euro.
After introduction, its value could sink lower as prices rise at the same time and inflation picks up. If Greece is lucky, the new currency would reach an equilibrium after a few months, perhaps buoyed by savings, foreign-held euros and tourism spending.
It’s also possible the Greek economy could go into freefall. At that point, they might need another international bailout anyway, when things could look far worse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... it-s-a-no-

[miracle]

หากวิเคราะห์ตามข่าวก่อนหน้าที่กรีซ หยุดชำระหนี้นั้น
เงินสกุลยูโร ได้อ่อนค่า เมื่อเทียบกับดอลล่าร์
จาก $1.3 แลกได้ 1ยูโร เป็น$1.1 แลกได้ 1 ยูโร

วิกฤติของกรีซ เหมือนฉากบังหน้า (ความชอบธรรม) ที่ กลุ่มยุโรปนั้น
สามารถเสกกระดาษให้เป็นเงิน จำนวนมาก เพื่อพยุงสถานการณ์ไว้นั้นเอง
สุดท้ายใครรับ ประชาชน รับผลไปนั้นเอง

ไม่เพียงแค่นั้น
ตอน ยูโรโซนรวมนั้น รวมในด้านการเงิน การธนาคาร การเคลื่อนย้ายในด้านการทำงาน
แต่ด้านการเมืองยังไม่ได้รวมกันเป็นหนึ่งเดียว ดังนั้น เหตุการณ์นี้อาจจะทำให้ เกิดการรวมกลุ่มทางด้านการเมือง
ก็ได้

ก่อนหน้าที่เกิดปัญหา กรีซ สังเกตไหมว่า ยูโรนั้นแสดงศัีกยภาพทางการทหาร
ในเรื่องของยูเครนก็ดี ในลิเบียก็ดี ทำไมอังกฤษ ,สเปน ,อิตาลี,ฝรั่งเศท ไปรบที่ลิเบีย
ทำให้ ยูเครนถึงมีปัญหาเกิดขึ้น อาจจะเป็นเรื่องประจวบเหมาะพอดี เพื่อแสดงศักยภาพทางการทหารให้เห็น

(ใครดูข้าบดินทร์ น่าจะเห็น เรื่องการยิงปืนใหญ่บนเรื่องของวิลาสที่ลอยลำอยู่ในแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยานั้นเอง
ทำให้ประชาชนในพระนครตื่นตะหนก เพื่อบีบให้ซื้อเรือของวิลาสนั้นเอง)

[miracle]

Trillion-Dollar Stock Managers See Days of Chaos on Greek ‘No’
by Lu Wang and Inyoung Hwang
July 5, 2015 — 2:35 AM ICT

It shouldn’t have gotten this far.
That’s the view of equity managers overseeing more than $3.7 trillion, who say the game of chicken between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and creditors threatens lasting damage to a European stock rally that earlier in 2015 added as much as $2.17 trillion to share prices.
“The market right now hasn’t priced in a potential ‘no’ vote,” said David Joy, the Boston-based chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc., which oversees $815 billion. “If we get one, we’re going to see another round of downside volatility in excess of what we saw on Monday. The move would be more violent.”
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index tumbled 4.2 percent on June 29 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had its biggest plunge in more than a year after Tsipras unexpectedly called for a referendum on austerity measures proposed by Greece’s creditors. Concern the vote may bring the nation one step closer to an exit from the euro pushed equity volatility to a three-year high.
A poll commissioned by Bloomberg News showed Friday that 43 percent of Greek citizens intend to vote against accepting austerity conditions and 42.5 percent to back a “yes.” While support for the rejection declined from 52 percent a week ago, the crisis in Greece underscores the limitations of the European Central Bank’s efforts to shore up confidence in the currency union and contain the risk of contagion to other countries in the region.
75% Chance
Credit Suisse Group AG estimated that the probability of Greece leaving the euro would be 75 percent with a “no” vote, according to a note on Friday.
“It would raise the question of the solidarity of the European Monetary Union,” Joy said. “If all of a sudden one member leaves, it does creates a precedent, and maybe suddenly casts some doubt on the long-term future of the monetary union.”
Stocks in Spain and Italy took the biggest hits in the week following the referendum announcement, dropping the most among developed markets with losses of more than 5 percent. A measure of stock swings for the region jumped 21 percent in five days. The Euro Stoxx 50 is now down 10 percent from a seven-year high in April.
So far, the market reaction hasn’t been as bad as in 2010, when Greece received its first bailout. That year, the gauge tracking 50 blue-chip companies in the euro area tumbled as much as 17 percent in less than six weeks. The crisis contributed to an 11 percent drop in the S&P 500 and a 16 percent plunge in the MSCI All-Country World Index.
Short Lived
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a July 2 report that equity volatility caused by a rejection of the bailout terms will be short-lived as the ECB intervenes, allowing investors to refocus on Europe’s economic fundamentals.
A “no,” which Syriza’s leader has been campaigning for, could trigger a decline in the Euro Stoxx 50 to 3,150, or 8.5 percent below where it closed Friday, strategists at the New York-based bank wrote. That’s a scenario that should spur investors to buy Italian, Spanish and German equities, they said. Acceptance could send the gauge back up to 3,830, near where it traded at the April peak, according to the note.
A rejection of the bailout may not help Tsipras’s hand in negotiations, said Asoka Woehrmann of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Investment in Luxembourg.
“No one knows how to interpret a ‘no’ vote,” said Woehrmann, chief investment officer at Deutsche Asset & Wealth, which manages about $1.25 trillion. “I doubt that a ‘no’ vote will soften the institutions’ tone,” he said of creditors. “This was the very last trump card Syriza could play.”
Many Mistakes
It’s because of mistakes from both sides that the situation spiraled into such a deadlock, according to David Kelly of JPMorgan Funds, which oversees $800 billion.
“Europeans are very unfair and unkind to Greek people by forcing them to a level of austerity where they really couldn’t manage,” said Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York. “Having said that, the way that Syriza has negotiated with Europe leaves European governments very distrustful of Syriza.”
If voters turn down the bailout terms, Greece wouldn’t leave the euro immediately but may begin to print its own currency to keep its financial system afloat. The country might soon run out of cash and be unable to make a 3.5 billion euro ($3.9 billion) bond payment to the ECB due on July 20. The central bank would then withdraw emergency liquidity to Greek lenders, and the probability of the country leaving the euro would climb even higher, Credit Suisse said.
“There is no blueprint for how a country exits the euro and redenominates,'' said David Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management in Boston. The firm oversees $900 billion. ``That’s going to create all kinds of uncertainty in Europe.”

[miracle]

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... be-ashamed
Greece Should Vote Yes and Europe Should Be Ashamed
178 JUL 5, 2015 12:01 AM EDT
By Clive Crook
If I had a vote in Sunday's referendum in Greece, which way would I cast it? With a heavy heart, I'd vote yes.

Greeks are being asked whether to support the terms for further financial assistance offered to their government a little over a week ago by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is calling on them to say no. He promises that if they do, he can get them a better deal in short order.

Recent polls say the vote could be close. I'm not convinced it will make much difference. Whether Greece votes yes or no, Tsipras (though apparently not his finance minister) is aiming to stay in charge. The vote doesn’t change the calculations that the respective sides will have to make about long-term consequences. It will still be in both sides' interests to come to an agreement. For five months, that hasn't been enough -- but at some point, even now, sanity may prevail.

It's even possible that the no vote Tsipras is asking for might, as he says, elicit a new and better offer from the European side. But it's a balance of probabilities, and voting no involves the greater risk. Some European officials are ready to see Greece default and exit the euro system. If Greeks vote no, that view may gain ground and the chance of "Grexit" certainly goes up. For the past week the country has been getting a foretaste of the disruption this would cause.

Greece's Fiscal Odyssey

If the voters say yes, there's a better chance that the EU and the ECB will offer help to stave off both default and Greece's exit. At least in the short-term, yes is the better path to less economic pain.

There's another thing. A no vote would be a vote of confidence in Tsipras and his team. It would leave them in command with a heightened sense of being right. Managing Greece's exit, if it came to that, would test even the most skillful leader, and Tsipras sure isn't that. Having him in charge under those conditions hardly bears thinking about.

If I were Greek, I'd want Tsipras gone. A yes vote wouldn't guarantee this, but would make it more likely. Tsipras's departure also wouldn't guarantee that a better government takes over, but again it seems worth a try.

By submitting to the EU, Greece might incline the creditors to be generous in victory. Europe might finally concede what Tsipras has long been demanding and what has always made sense from the creditors' own point of view -- to bundle debt relief and a milder profile of fiscal consolidation into a third bailout program.

The rational choice is therefore to vote yes. The challenge, and I flinch at it, would be to contain one's disgust at handing Europe and the IMF this win. All the more so, if the least-bad scenario I've just described comes to pass.

Consider: In that scenario, Europe would arrive at terms not that different from those Tsipras was ready to accept weeks ago. If Greece is to stay in the euro zone, begin to recover and avoid social disorder, there's little alternative. Stabilizing Greece's fiscal position and restoring economic growth will be much harder now than before. So why was the deal not done?

Tsipras, of course, is one answer. He seemed to deliberately enrage the creditors. But for all his bluster, he soon abandoned his election promise of no more programs, no more conditions. Months ago, the gap between the severe fiscal conditions required by the creditors and what Tsipras was willing to take was small. In that sense, Europe had already won.

The sticking-point was debt relief. Here too, less than you'd think was at stake. Concessional terms had already been granted in an earlier deal. Further relief raised no great issue of principle, and according to the creditors' own calculations would help to make the debt sustainable -- which is in their interests as much as Greece's. But Tsipras wanted debt relief on the table now, as part of this negotiation, not later, as part of another set of talks.

Week after week, the creditors said, that's not how we do things. Incredible as it seems, this narrow procedural objection to talking about debt relief now rather than later is why the talks collapsed.

Tsipras may be erratic and infuriating, but is he really so hard to understand? The creditors, throughout, insisted on his overt capitulation. They've shifted on details of the terms, but not on anything Tsipras can boast about. Talks about debt relief now rather than later have been his only hope of telling Greeks he'd won them something. The concession would have cost the creditors nothing -- less than nothing, measured against the costs they now face. Yet they refused it.

In the beginning, I think, this was out of ordinary bureaucratic mulishness. Rules are rules. By degrees, and under great provocation, this characteristic EU trait became a determination to show Tsipras who was boss.

The right thing was to help Tsipras lose with dignity -- to show a little respect to the Greeks who'd voted him into office out of despair. Any instinct of that kind gave way to the view that Tsipras and his supporters had to kneel. That would encourage future backsliders to get in line, and Greece had it coming anyway. That mindset, in turn, formed itself into the idea that the euro system, and maybe the EU itself, might be better off without Greece.

Resolving this crisis, strengthening the euro system and reviving the wider European project required statesmen. If Europe still has any, they kept quiet. Small leaders and pettifogging bureaucrats called the shots. And now Greece, for its own sake, has to tell them they won.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.

To contact the author on this story:
Clive Crook at [email protected]

To contact the editor on this story:
James Gibney at [email protected]

[miracle]

Printing the Drachma: The Messy Future of a Post-Euro Greece
by Matthew Campbell and Alex Webb
July 4, 2015 — 1:00 PM ICT Updated on July 5, 2015 — 4:00 AM ICT
Introducing a new currency is no small feat. Recent cases -- East Germany’s adoption of the deutsche mark, the Czech-Slovak divorce of 1993, and the creation of the euro itself -- benefited from years of careful planning and broad popular support. If Greece were to abandon the euro, it would have neither.
“Historical precedent suggests this would be hugely challenging,” said Richard Portes, a professor of economics at London Business School. “The situation in Greece is perhaps even worse because it’s not clear that they have the administrative capacity to move quickly to a new currency.”
Greece’s government says it intends to keep the euro even if voters reject the terms of a proposed international bailout in a referendum scheduled for Sunday. While a poll commissioned this week by Bloomberg found the vote too close to call, it showed that 81 percent of Greeks want their country to remain in the euro zone.
Many economists, though, say that would be difficult after a “no” vote -- even if in the long run the country might benefit from such a shift. The Greek banking system is dependent on support from the European Central Bank, which might be withdrawn in that event. That could force Greece to create its own means of exchange -- a new drachma -- to keep its economy running.
Countries switching currencies must grapple with two major questions: how to introduce new notes and coins, and what to do with bank accounts, debts, and financial instruments denominated in the old currency.
National Business Card
The former is relatively straightforward. The Greek central bank owns a press in the Athens suburb of Holargos that prints euro notes. That plant printed Greece’s pre-euro drachma, and could make a new drachma, too.
“A currency is a national business card, so you want to make it right,” said Ralf Wintergerst, head of banknote production at Giesecke & Devrient GmbH, a Munich company that has printed banknotes since the days of Germany’s Reichsmark in the 1920s.
Wintergerst says introducing a new currency typically takes at least six months, and sometimes as long as two years. Artists must draw the notes, security experts then add anti-counterfeit measures such as watermarks and special inks, and bank officials need to plan how much of each denomination is needed and get the money to banks.
Difficult Distribution
“The most challenging thing was to establish efficient distribution and make sure the new currency was available everywhere,” said Boris Raguz, head of the Treasury Directory at Croatia’s central bank, who in 1993 oversaw the introduction of the country’s currency, the kuna, after the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Greater difficulties arise when banks start issuing that money. Because of the time required to distribute new notes and coins, the two currencies have to exist side by side for some time. While Greek banks might move card transactions to the new drachma immediately, shops could accept both -- or perhaps only euros if merchants doubted the value of the new drachma.
“When will the conversion happen? At what rate?” said Antonio Fatas, a professor of economics at Insead business school near Paris. “That’s the big question.”
The two currencies would likely start at a one-to-one exchange rate, which might be fixed for a period of time. The euro was created in 1999, but it existed only virtually for three years, used for electronic transactions at a rate fixed against the francs, marks, and other currencies it replaced. Then on Jan. 1, 2002, euro bills and coins were introduced, though the old currencies were also accepted for about two more months.
Little Planning
Greece would be more complicated because the transition would have to happen fast, with little planning. And unlike most other currencies that have been abandoned, Greece’s current currency -- the euro -- will remain in circulation across Europe no matter what. That means any new currency might have little appeal to Greeks, who would expect its value to fall once the market was allowed to set the exchange rate.
“As soon as anyone got new drachmas stuffed in their pockets, they would do whatever it takes to get rid of them,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Trust is Key
Another complication, according to Kirkegaard, is that Greece’s many importers might demand to be paid in euros, rather than depreciating drachmas that would do little to meet their international costs.
Ludek Niedermayer, who headed the risk management department at the Czech central bank when the Czech koruna was introduced in February 1993, said that at the time his country and Slovakia were relatively isolated, having emerged from communism less than four years earlier. Greece, he noted, is far more integrated into the European economy, making it harder to switch.
The key is trust in the new currency, Niedermayer said. That’s something the Czechs and Slovaks both had, and which the Greeks will surely lack.
“If you introduce a currency that no one wants, it’s a very bad start,” Niedermayer said. “I would advise Greeks to stop thinking about leaving the euro at all. It wouldn’t be a happy ending for them. There isn’t any alternative that would be equal to having the euro.”

[miracle]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... exit-looms

Greek Pollsters Forecast Narrow ‘No’ Win in Austerity Referendum
by Nikos Chrysoloras,Matthew Campbell and Jenny Paris
July 5, 2015 — 7:40 PM ICT Updated on July 5, 2015 — 11:40 PM ICT
Greek pollsters are forecasting a narrow win for the “no” side in Sunday’s referendum, endorsing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s call to defy creditors over more austerity as the country veers toward an exit from the euro.
Four informal surveys published as voting finished estimated the lead for “no” at three or four percentage points. The first official projections of the result are due around 9 p.m., two hours after polling stations closed.
All opinion polls produced similar results, showing the “no” vote leading with an average of 52 percent compared with 48 percent in favor of “yes,” Elias Nikolakopoulos, a professor of politics and electoral sociology at the University of Athens, said on Mega TV.
Tsipras had urged his compatriots to vote against further austerity after calling the vote only a little more than a week ago, arguing Greece could stay in the euro under better terms despite the result. Most European leaders characterized the referendum as a de facto decision on euro membership and a “yes” as an easier route out of economic misery.
“Many can ignore the will of a government, no one can ignore that of a people that take life in their own hands,” Tsipras said after casting his ballot in Athens. “We’re sending a message not only to stay, but to live with dignity in Europe.”
Leaders Meet
European leaders will have to spring into action as soon as a result is known, after a week in which negotiations with Greece were largely put on hold. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are due to meet in Paris on Monday, while the European Central Bank is scheduled to discuss extending further liquidity to Greek banks.
Voting on whether to accept spending cuts and tax hikes in exchange for a new European bailout took place in the most difficult circumstances faced by Greece since the country joined the euro.
Banks have been shuttered for a week due to capital controls imposed to stem outflows of cash, commerce has slowed to a crawl and pension payments are being rationed. Greeks can each withdraw a daily maximum of 60 euros ($67), and there have been widespread lines at cash machines.
Defying Fear
“My logic and fear tell me to vote ‘yes,’ but I’m voting ‘no’ because I think that even a small rupture is worth the risk for a better future,” said Ourania, 32, a consultant for small businesses who was voting in northern Athens. She said she didn’t want to use her last name because the vote has caused family disputes. “I went to the ‘yes’ rally with my husband who is voting ‘yes’. There is a lot of tension within families right now,” she said.
Either verdict would bring complications. It’s unclear if and how the ECB could extend a further lifeline to Greek lenders, whose cash reserves are nearly exhausted, after a “no” result. Such an outcome would also make it harder for Greece to reach a new aid deal with creditors.
More Limbo
“Irrespective of the referendum outcome, it is unlikely that there is an immediate resolution to the crisis the next day,” Marco Stringa, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a research note before the polls closed. “A ‘yes’ vote would be significantly more likely to lead to a quicker agreement with the creditors, but not without risks. Ultimately, the economic emergency will remain a key catalyst.”
A “yes” could force the end of the Tsipras government and fresh elections, a possibility to which Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis alluded on Thursday. A result so close that it’s inconclusive may only extend the current stalemate, which began when Tsipras called the surprise plebiscite on June 27.
Some Greeks are despairing of their country’s situation.
“This vote is a test of our collective IQ,” said Hara Nikolou, a retired biochemist who lives on the island of Serifos, before casting her “yes” vote. “If our society opts to turn this country into Balkan wasteland, I don’t want to continue living here.”

[miracle]

Euro May Slide at Open as Early Polls Suggest Greek ‘No’ Vote

by Lucy Meakin
July 5, 2015 — 11:31 PM ICT

The euro may weaken after four opinion polls indicated Greece’s voters narrowly rejected a bailout plan, raising the risk of an exit from the currency union that would call the integrity of the bloc into question.
Informal surveys taken on Sunday and published after voting had taken place showed “no” ahead by a slim margin in a referendum on austerity measures required in return for financial aid. The first official projections are due around 9 p.m. local time.
While Greece accounts for less than 2 percent of the euro zone’s output, an exit would set a precedent for other nations that membership is reversible. The single currency has so far proven resilient amid the ebb and flow of Greek bailout talks. It climbed 3.9 percent against the dollar in the three months through June, its best quarter since 2013. That strength may now be at risk.
“Things change if there’s a ‘no’ vote and there’s a clear implication Greece will leave the euro,” Steve Barrow, head of Group-of-10 strategy at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in London, said before the vote. “Things have been fairly steady on the currency. You can’t just assume from that stability that there won’t be a reaction at a ‘no’ outcome.”
European ministers in Berlin to Madrid last week reiterated that a “no” to the latest proposals by creditors would complicate Greece’s route out of financial turmoil. If it fails to agree to new financing arrangements Greece may have to start printing its own currency to keep its financial system operational. On the other hand, euro-area finance ministers may start work on a third bailout agreement even after a “no” vote, two officials familiar with negotiations said last week.
Canceled Hedges
The euro slipped 0.5 percent last week to close on Friday at $1.1114. It appreciated 1.5 percent in June, with strategists citing money managers canceling euro hedges as they sold stocks and bonds.
Even so, the 19-nation shared currency is 8.1 percent lower this year, after a 12 percent drop in 2014, fueled by a divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the U.S. Before the referendum was announced, analysts saw it declining to $1.05 by year-end, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
For the past week, Greece’s banks have been shut and capital controls imposed. The nation became the first developed country to miss a payment to the International Monetary Fund and 3.5 billion euros of bonds held by the ECB mature on July 20. A failure to repay it may cause the central bank to cut off Greek banks’ access to emergency funding.
Price Swings
The turmoil has already shown up in currency pairs other than the euro against the dollar. Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said on June 29 that the central bank intervened in markets as demand for francs soared after Greece announced plans to hold the referendum. Sweden’s central bank lowered its main interest rate and expanded its bond purchases as the turmoil in Greece raised the specter of further krona gains.
No matter what the result, negotiations over Greece’s debt and future in the bloc look set to continue and the euro will likely face further strains.
Implied one-month volatility, a measure of anticipated price swings in the euro-dollar exchange rate, climbed to the highest since December 2011 after the referendum was announced.
“The market is looking at this as a very digital response and you may get very violent moves in markets on Monday but actually it will probably continue beyond that,” Steven Saywell, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown” with Anna Edwards. “Our view would be to fade those initial violent moves.”