BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

[offshore-engineer]

ทุกๆ ปี ประมาณกลางเดือน มิถุนายน BP จะออกรายงานเกี่ยวกับสถิติของพลังงานโลกในปี ก่อนหน้านั้น

สถิติสำหรับปี 2005 นั้น พร้อมที่จะดาวน์โหลดจาก เว๊ปไซต์ของ BP แล้วครับ

สถิตินี้น่าสนใจมากครับ เป็นข้อมูลที่ใช้ในการตัดสินใจในด้านการลงทุน การทำธุรกิจได้เป็นอย่างดี

ผมใช้ข้อมูลดังกล่าว ทำ Energy Mix Chart ของประเทศไทย และประเทศอื่นๆ ในแถบเอเชีย เช่น ญี่ปุ่น จีน เกาหลีใต้ ไต้หวัน ทำให้เห็นแนวโน้มและสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นที่ค่อนข้างน่าสนใจทีเดียว (ได้รับแนวความคิดจากหนังสือเรื่อง A Thousand Barrels A Second)

สำหรับปีที่ผ่านมา ถ่านหินมีสัดส่วนการใช้มากขึ้น ในขณะที่ก๊าซลดลง

[offshore-engineer]

ผมขอคัดลอกคำกล่าวสุนทรพจน์ของ Lord Brown, CEO ของ BP ซึ่งมีหลาย ๆ จุดที่น่าสนใจมากครับ เช่น ทำไมราคาน้ำมันจึงปรับตัวสูงขึ้นเป็นอย่างมาก หรือแม้กระทั่งแผนการลงทุนต่างๆ ของ BP และ การขยายการลงทุนไปสู่ Renewable Energy และ Biofuel

เนื้อหายาวหน่อยครับ อดทนอ่านนิดนึงครับ ไม่ยากครับ

Ladies and Gentlemen, good morning and welcome. It's a great pleasure to see you all here. Thank you for joining us.

Today we are launching the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The Review was published first in 1948 - so it's as old as I am - but it gets better every year.

The Review is a considerable piece of work involving not just the BP team, but also hundreds of people in different countries around the world who provide us with accurate and timely data. That help is indispensable, and I'd like to express our thanks to all of them.

Professor Peter Davies, our chief economist, is going to take you through the detail of the Review in a moment. I don't want to steal his thunder, but let me give you a few of the headlines.

World energy demand last year grew by 2.7 per cent. The energy mix shifted slightly in favour of coal, as gas lost market share globally in 2005, and is no longer the fastest growing fuel. One barrel in three of world oil demand is now accounted for by consumers in Asia, coal demand worldwide rose by 5 per cent, and natural gas by 2.3 per cent.

Oil demand here in the UK grew by 1.7 per cent, and worldwide oil use increased by 1.3 per cent or 1 million barrels a day.

And, of course, as you know all too well, oil prices rose last year by 42 per cent to an annual average of some $55 a barrel for Brent, making oil more expensive in real terms than at any time since 1983.

People sometimes ask why we go to the trouble of producing a Statistical Review every year.

The answer is that good decisions - good investment decisions and good policy - depend on good information. Without facts, you can easily be overtaken by rhetoric or loose analysis, which owes more to what people want to believe rather than to real data.


As an engineer I believe the only solid foundation for any decision is the data. So let me take a few minutes to look at the data, and to think about its implications for action.

BP is one of the largest private sector suppliers of oil and gas around the world, and we talk to a lot of customers - individuals and businesses.

We are very conscious that people are nervous about the energy market. They want to understand why prices have moved as they have, and most of all, they want to know what we are going to do about it.

The first question is why prices are today at $65 a barrel Brent. The basic answer is the price has been driven by anxiety about the reliability of supply.

Despite conflict in the Middle East, and the impact of extreme weather conditions in the US and elsewhere, there has been no physical shortage.

Prices are high, because spare capacity is low, and because too many of the key suppliers seem at risk.

The estimated amount of spare capacity in the market is around 1.8 million barrels a day, which is not only lower than normal, but also less than the production from Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and of course Nigeria which has been the main source of the market uncertainty over the last six months, because violence has reduced supply by some 500,000 barrels a day.

That is why the world crude price and petrol prices at the pump are so high.

As well as prices, there are longer term concerns about climate change and energy security which are feeding anxiety here in the UK and elsewhere.

I don't believe that major companies can stand aside from those issues. We can't deny the reality of those concerns. We cant just say that these are not our problems. We can't say that someone else will solve them while we just take profits.


I think people expect big companies to come up with answers. So what is BP doing?

First, we are investing in the next generation of energy supplies from a host of different places around the world.

In the last five years we have invested around $47 billion in developing oil and gas fields around the world, in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, in Trinidad, in Angola, in Algeria and in the Caspian.

Two weeks ago, the first oil was delivered through the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline. That line will bring a million barrels a day of new oil to the world market.

And we've invested in Russia. The world needs Russian oil and gas, and with all the problems in the Middle East and Africa, Russia has become in the last five years, one of the more secure suppliers to Europe, and the rest of the world.

In 2003 we created a new company, TNK-BP, based in Moscow. We've invested $8bn to acquire our interest. Production has increased by 39 per cent and reserves by 32 per cent. In 2006 TNK-BP is investing $2.5 billion to continue its growth.

And we've invested in the North Sea. Over the last five years BP alone has invested $4.4 billion in North Sea fields. That investment has sustained production of oil and gas way beyond all the predictions of decline which were made ten or 20 years ago.

And there is more to do, around the world and in the North Sea.

Over the next five years we expect to invest over $50 billion worldwide in exploration and production. That investment will bring on stream gas from Alaska, Indonesia, Egypt, the Caspian and, we hope, from East Siberia. It will develop oil from Angola, Russia and the Gulf of Mexico.


In addition to those international activities, we will also be investing in the North Sea, and the infrastructure necessary to secure supplies for the UK as well.

Over the next five years we plan to invest around $6bn in developing the remaining resource base in the North Sea to ensure that we recover the maximum amount of both oil and gas.

North Sea production has passed its peak, but on the DTI's most recent figures there is around 6 billion barrels of oil, and 29 trillion cubic feet of natural gas still be to be produced. Of course, the growth in demand means that the UK is no longer self-sufficient in natural gas. Imports are now required.

But we are a trading nation and companies like BP exist to ensure that the trading system works. And it is working. Despite a cold winter there was no shortage.

International supplies are available and the capacity necessary to handle the imports of Liquefied Natural Gas is being put in place with new terminals at both the Isle of Grain and Milford Haven.

BP has a 50 per cent interest in the Isle of Grain terminal. When it is fully operational it will be able to supply up to 10 per cent of the UK's average daily gas demand.

Gas storage capacity is also being expanded and can provide a further degree of security.

So, as gas demand grows, imports will rise but there is no practical reason why there should be any shortage for UK consumers.

BP is investing in oil and gas, but we are also looking further ahead to the development of alternative fuels which can offer secure, local supplies of energy to reduce the dependence on imports and which can also provide the means of cutting emissions of carbon to the atmosphere.


The current concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is around 380 parts per million. That figure has risen over the last 20 years by about 10 per cent. Last year carbon emissions increased by 2.9 per cent and the level of emissions worldwide is now about 20 per cent higher than it was when the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997.

Of course, the detailed science of climate change continues to evolve. There are many things we don't yet know. But we in BP don't believe that we can ignore the mounting evidence, the weight of scientific opinion and the risks of a fundamental shift in the earth's climate.

Climate change of course is a matter of public policy. Technology is important but it's the framework of rules which will determine the pace at which technology is developed and applied. Governments have the power to create an energy market in which the externalities such as carbon emissions, and indeed the value of energy security, are properly priced for example through trading systems.

That will take bold leadership starting at the national and regional level. We won't move instantly to a global solution, but the individual steps are important and are the steps towards a long-term answer.

Only governments can set the rules in that way. But business has a crucial role to play as well.

The role of business is not to engage in politics or propaganda. Equally the role is not to deny reality. The role of business is to offer solutions.

That is what BP is trying to do - by investing in alternative sources of energy including wind, photovoltaics for solar and the new technology of carbon capture and storage. We will invest at least $8 billion in this new business over the next ten years.

And today we want to announce a new step in addition to that programme.


We are already one of the largest marketers of biofuels, which is a rapidly developing market capable of both improving energy security and producing fuels with lower emissions.

Now we want to do more, beginning with a ten-year investment of $500 million to create a dedicated biosciences energy research laboratory, attached to a major academic centre. This will be the first facility of its kind in the world.

We have already started discussions with several leading universities here, and in the US to identify which could host the BP Energy Biosciences Institute (EBI), with the aim of launching the first research programmes by the end of 2007.

Bioscience is already transforming modern medicine, and we believe it can bring immense benefits to the energy sector. The new institute will focus initially on three areas of energy bioscience:
 developing new biofuel components, and improving the efficiency and flexibility of those currently blended with transport fuels;
 devising new technologies to enhance and accelerate the conversion of organic matter to biofuel molecules, with the aim of increasing the proportion of a crop which can be used to produce feedstocks for fuel;
 using modern plant science to develop species that produce a higher yield of energy molecules, and can be grown on land not suitable for food production.
In addition to its focus on advanced biofuels, the Institute will also look at broader applications of bioscience to energy, including improved recovery of oil, coal-bed methane and carbon sequestration.


We believe that the demand for biofuels will rise significantly through the next decade. Consumers want energy which is clean and local and biofuels are one very attractive means of meeting that demand.

Ladies and gentlemen, BP's belief is that if we are going to maintain our position as one of the world's leading energy suppliers, we have to listen to what is worrying people. And then we have to do something about those worries.

Energy security and climate change are serious issues, but they are not insoluble problems. If you have the will and the means, the issues can be tackled. And that is what we are determined to do.

[Ent']

ขอบคุณครับ คุณ off-shore มักจะมีเรื่องดีๆ มาแบ่งปันประจำเลย  ว่าแต่ว่า อยู่ off-shore ที่ประเทศไหนเหรอครับ?

[offshore-engineer]

[quote="Ent'"]ขอบคุณครับ คุณ off-shore มักจะมีเรื่องดีๆ มาแบ่งปันประจำเลย

[Ent']

อ้อ ครับผม พี่สาวผมก็ทำงานอยู่ off-shore  ตอนนี้แต่งงานกับฝรั่งบน off-shore ไปเรียบร้อยแล้ว ก็ลาออกตามแฟนไปประเทศโน้นนี้เรื่อยๆ  :)